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ACUS11 KWNS 222236
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222236
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-230030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0494
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0536 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Areas affected...Southern half of OH...northern WV Panhandle...and
western PA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 115...

Valid 222236Z - 230030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 115
continues.

SUMMARY...The greatest severe-weather threat through the early-mid
evening will be from central, southern and southeast Ohio into
western Pennsylvania, with strong-severe wind gusts producing tree
damage, and hail the primary risks. A few counties east of WW 115
may need to be added to this watch, as the environment there has
become moderately unstable.

DISCUSSION...At 2215Z, mosaic radar imagery showed a broken band of
strong to severe storms extending from Butler County, PA southwest
into central OH (Pickaway County), with isolated storms northwest
and southwest of the line in west-central to southwest OH. The
broken band of storms is located along a cold front advancing to the south-southeast through the Ohio Valley region. An increase in
surface temperatures occurred across western PA late this afternoon
as clouds shifted east allowing for more sunshine. This coupled
with surface dew points in the mid-upper 60s boosted instability
into the moderate range. MLCAPE across western PA to central and
southern OH is 1000-1500 J/kg. This combined with effective bulk
shear of 35-45 kt maintains the likelihood for storm organization,
while deep westerly winds will continue to favor mainly linear
structures, producing strong-severe wind gusts.

A few counties immediately east and southeast of WW 115 (within WFO
PBZ County Warning Area) may need to be added to this watch, as the
environment into those areas has become supportive of severe storms.
The timing of storms reaching the east and southeast of WW 115
should be between 00-01Z. As the boundary layer begins to stabilize
with the loss of daytime heating, a downstream watch is not
expected.

..Peters.. 05/22/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON 39298514 40538328 40598183 41118038 41447949 41177925
40757923 40217939 39997984 39578093 39198295 38998355
38668374 38908521 39298514



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ACUS11 KWNS 012025
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012025
OKZ000-TXZ000-012230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0494
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 PM CDT Wed May 01 2019

Areas affected...West-central and Northwest Texas...South-central
Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 117...

Valid 012025Z - 012230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 117
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat is likely to continue across northwest
Texas and south-central Oklahoma over the next few hours. Large
hail, isolated wind damage and a brief tornado will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a washed out frontal
boundary from north-central Oklahoma extending southwestward into
southwestern Oklahoma. An outflow boundary, from last night's
storms, intersects the front in southwest Oklahoma. The storms in
south-central Oklahoma are located on the cool side of the outflow
boundary where surface temperatures are generally around 70 F. In
spite of this, moderate instability is in place across south-central
Oklahoma where the RAP is estimating MLCAPE values from 2000 to 2500
J/kg. This combined with moderate deep-layer shear evident on the
Oklahoma City WSR-88D VWP and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.0 C/km,
will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Supercells may
also produce isolated wind damage and perhaps a brief tornado.

Further southwest into northwest Texas, a cluster of strong to
severe thunderstorms is ongoing just to the southeast of the front
in a very moist and unstable airmass. Surface temperatures are in
the mid 80s F and the RAP is estimating MLCAPE to be in the 4000 to
4500 J/kg range. This thermodynamic environment will be very
favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of greater than
2 inches will be possible with the strongest of updrafts. Isolated
wind damage and a brief tornado will also be possible.

..Broyles/Hart.. 05/01/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 31080009 31090177 32060179 32070169 32520170 32500113
32970112 32970101 33400102 33389996 33789997 33789949
34409944 34379924 34569912 34649895 34629882 34849883
34869807 35379806 35309770 35389761 35359714 35469710
35459646 35099648 35079653 34909647 34899639 34699639
34709648 34429650 34429640 34139639 34139655 34029654
33919665 33869677 33979693 33459697 33449738 33019740
33009806 32489807 32509842 32289847 32149883 32089917
31529921 31439929 31499951 31529968 31609971 31590009
31080009



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