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ACUS11 KWNS 221957
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221956
TXZ000-NMZ000-222230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0492
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico...Far West Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 221956Z - 222230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal severe threat will continue to develop across
eastern New Mexico and into far west Texas this afternoon. Hail and
strong gusty winds will be possible but weather watch appears
unlikely.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows south to
southeasterly flow across southeast New Mexico. A corridor of
enhanced low-level convergence is present near the Sacramento
Mountains in south-central New Mexico. Surface dewpoints to the east
of this area are in the lower 60s F and the RAP is analyzing
moderate instability with MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/Kg range. In
addition, forecast soundings late this afternoon near Alamogordo, NM
show 0-6 km shear around 30 kt with some directional shear in the
lowest 2 km AGL. This along with steep low-level lapse rates could
be enough for a marginal wind damage threat. Hail will also be
possible within the better-developed cores.

..Broyles/Weiss.. 05/22/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 35380557 34870575 34180579 33290567 32220569 31420542
31120503 31060406 31360335 33050308 35690330 35940460
35380557



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ACUS11 KWNS 010636
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010635
ARZ000-010730-

Mesoscale Discussion 0492
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 AM CDT Wed May 01 2019

Areas affected...portions of north-central AR

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 116...

Valid 010635Z - 010730Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 116
continues.

SUMMARY...A localized risk for damaging gusts (50-60 mph) may
accompany the squall line as it moves east across north-central AR
during the next 1-2 hours. A new severe thunderstorm watch is not
anticipated but a local extension in area to tornado watch 116 can
be utilized if needed.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows an organized squall line over
western AR as of 130am CDT. The airmass ahead of the squall line is characterized as weakly buoyant with 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE with 55-kt southwesterly 500mb flow according to the KLZK VAD.

A bowing segment/inflection in the line indicates a rear-inflow jet
and these features are forecast to track to the east-northeast
across portions of north-central AR during the next 1-2 hours.
Either side of the bowing segment, more of a line-parallel shear
vector near the MO border and over west-southwestern portions of AR
suggest the potential for damaging gusts is minimized there.

..Smith.. 05/01/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...

LAT...LON 35639347 35989257 35959211 35519217 34929268 34799351
35639347



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