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ACUS11 KWNS 221752
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221752
MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-221945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0490
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Areas affected...Northeastern Virginia...southern Maryland...and the
District of Columbia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 221752Z - 221945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts will be possible with stronger storms
this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A relatively cloud-free area on visible satellite
imagery has been persistent throughout the morning into early
afternoon. This has allowed surface temperatures to rise into the
mid- to upper-70s. With ample surface moisture -- dewpoints
generally in the mid- to upper-60s -- MLCAPE values are currently
near 1000 J/kg. With time, continued surface heating should further
destabilize the area. Shear values are relatively modest with values
between 25-30 kts; however, particularly in areas that receive the
most insolation, low-level lapse rates may support damaging wind
gusts. Visible satellite imagery indicates weak convection occurring
to the west of the discussion area. These storms should intensify as
they move into a move favorable environment east of the
Appalachians.

..Wendt/Elliott/Weiss.. 05/22/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON 38317897 38907871 39117819 39107730 38697638 38207605
37767622 37587652 37237696 37197806 37427907 37707924
38317897



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ACUS11 KWNS 010313
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010313
ILZ000-MOZ000-010445-

Mesoscale Discussion 0490
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1013 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

Areas affected...Southern MO into Southwest IL

Concerning...Tornado Watch 111...115...

Valid 010313Z - 010445Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 111, 115 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds and brief tornadoes will
continue with the QLCS moving eastward across southern Missouri.

DISCUSSION...A well-organized QLCS is moving eastward across
southern MO at 03Z. The damaging wind threat should continue for at
least the short term as it moves into southeast MO. In addition,
strong low-level shear will continue to support the threat of brief
tornadoes along the leading edge of the QLCS for the next 1-2 hours.

With time, this system will move into a region of weaker instability
and stronger CINH across extreme southeast MO into southwest IL.
Some weakening will be possible as this occurs, though at least an
isolated damaging wind threat may eventually spread into portions of
southwest IL overnight.

Some portion of the QLCS may still remain in WW 111 at the scheduled
expiration time of 04Z, so a local extension in time may be required
for WW 111 before the threat spreads entirely into WW 115.

..Dean.. 05/01/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON 36599253 37429211 38029206 38479197 39029017 39158917
38898879 38448884 37898922 37348977 36799037 36579062
36539160 36599253



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