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ACUS11 KWNS 151838
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151838
MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-152045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0427
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 PM CDT Tue May 15 2018

Areas affected...Northeast Pennsylvania...southern New
York...southwest New England

Concerning...Tornado Watch 94...96...

Valid 151838Z - 152045Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 94, 96 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across the tornado watch
area, with large, damaging hail, severe wind gusts and a threat of a
few tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...Storms oriented along the old outflow boundary have
increased markedly in the last hour, with a few hail cores now
exceeding 2.00". Cells were initially splitting per 18Z observed ALB
straight line hodograph, but the southern cells are becoming
dominant. Southwesterly low-level winds will continue feeding these
cells with unstable air, and they may increasingly take on supercell characteristics over the next few hours. Any deviant motion of these
cells to the south will likely result in strengthening mesocyclones,
and perhaps a few tornadoes. Wind driven, damaging hail is also
likely.

..Jewell.. 05/15/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...BGM...

LAT...LON 41627606 41957599 42487368 42697277 42627218 42297198
41917235 41677342 41417499 41467590 41627606



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ACUS11 KWNS 240052
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240052
TXZ000-NMZ000-240145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0427
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

Areas affected...Far West Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 96...

Valid 240052Z - 240145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 96
continues.

SUMMARY...A few storms capable of mainly large hail will continue
for the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Discrete storms exhibiting marginal/pulsating
supercellular characteristics have formed and/or moved into WW96.
Low level shear in the 0-1 km AGL layer has marginally increased in
the last hour or so, with east-southeasterly oriented shear vectors.
Surface observations show a 2-4 F increase in dew point temperatures
the past few hours, with slow westward expansion of the instability
axis. These trends are expected to continue for the next few hours,
helping to maintain storm organization and intensity. Storms are
expected to remain in a discrete mode, given effective bulk shear of
40-50 kt across the region, and pose mainly a severe hail threat,
although gusty outflow winds are also possible.

..Karstens.. 04/24/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...EPZ...

LAT...LON 29760273 29760473 32030493 32010287 29760273



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ACUS11 KWNS 240058
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240058 COR
TXZ000-NMZ000-240145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0427
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

Areas affected...Far West Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 96...

Valid 240058Z - 240145Z

CORRECTED FOR BLANK GRAPHIC

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 96
continues.

SUMMARY...A few storms capable of mainly large hail will continue
for the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Discrete storms exhibiting marginal/pulsating
supercellular characteristics have formed and/or moved into WW96.
Low level shear in the 0-1 km AGL layer has marginally increased in
the last hour or so, with east-southeasterly oriented shear vectors.
Surface observations show a 2-4 F increase in dew point temperatures
the past few hours, with slow westward expansion of the instability
axis. These trends are expected to continue for the next few hours,
helping to maintain storm organization and intensity. Storms are
expected to remain in a discrete mode, given effective bulk shear of
40-50 kt across the region, and pose mainly a severe hail threat,
although gusty outflow winds are also possible.

..Karstens.. 04/24/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...EPZ...

LAT...LON 29760273 29760473 32030493 32010287 29760273



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