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ACUS11 KWNS 151759
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151758
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-152000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0425
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 PM CDT Tue May 15 2018

Areas affected...Southern New England

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 151758Z - 152000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will move in from the west with an increasing
threat of severe weather later this afternoon. Wind, hail, and
perhaps a tornado will all be possible.

DISCUSSION...Visible imagery shows strong heating occurring over the
region with temperatures approaching 80 F as of 18Z. Storms were
forming over southern NY within the low pressure trough, and an
eastward extension of this trend is expected. Increasing winds aloft
with the shortwave trough will favor organized convection capable of
damaging winds and hail. A tornado risk may also exist from CT into
central MA where surface winds are locally backed.

..Jewell/Grams.. 05/15/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...

LAT...LON 41757283 42207283 42617269 43137245 43557216 43907092
43927044 43707026 43467022 43017062 42497074 41937080
41427102 41287177 41597232 41667272 41757283



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ACUS11 KWNS 232152
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232152
TXZ000-232345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0425
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0452 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

Areas affected...Far West Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 232152Z - 232345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storm intensity in far West Texas may increase in the next
few hours, watch issuance/extension possible.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows a marginally severe storm entering
far West Texas. This convection is expected to remain somewhat
disorganized in the short term, as it currently resides within a
weakly buoyant (MLCAPE < 1000 J/kg) and weakly sheared sheared
(Effective Bulk Shear < 30 kt) environment. The latest surface
analysis shows richer boundary-layer moisture to the east, with dew
point temperatures of 50+ F near Pecos, TX, and 60+ F near
Sanderson, TX. Consequently, MLCAPE values range from 1000-1500 J/kg
downstream of the current convection to go along with effective bulk
shear of 50+ kt. The latest high resolution model guidance suggests
an increase in easterly upslope flow, which would help to increase
access to richer buoyancy to any storms propagating across this
region. Should this occur, the environment will be more conducive to
sustain severe intensity. Thus, a watch or a watch extension may be
needed.

..Karstens/Grams.. 04/23/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...EPZ...

LAT...LON 29770264 29870436 30590505 31270598 31800596 31930411
31740270 29770264



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