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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0987

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, July 02, 2018 22:42:59
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 022242
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 022242
    OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-030045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0987
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0542 PM CDT Mon Jul 02 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of northeastern NM...southeastern
    CO...southwestern KS...and the TX/OK Panhandles

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 022242Z - 030045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Mainly an isolated severe wind risk should persist for the
    next couple of hours before diminishing later this evening. Watch
    issuance is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms developed earlier this
    afternoon along a surface lee trough/dryline across the
    southern/central High Plains. A hot and well-mixed boundary layer is
    present to the east of this convection, and a 54 kt wind gust was
    measured at 2225Z with a thunderstorm moving through Lamar, CO. Both
    low and mid-level flow are expected to remain weak across this
    region, with effective bulk shear values remaining generally below
    30 kt. This will likely limit the potential for more than an
    isolated severe wind risk as this loosely organized line moves
    slowly eastward this evening into a weak to moderately unstable
    airmass. Increasing convective inhibition later this evening will
    likely act to weaken these thunderstorms with eastward extent. Watch
    issuance is not expected due to the marginal overall severe
    environment.

    ..Gleason/Thompson.. 07/02/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 35380459 35800436 36380370 37080317 37700287 38110268
    38230240 38240114 37470118 36460172 35420295 35060355
    35030418 35380459



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