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ACUS11 KWNS 122017
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122017
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-122215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0714
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 PM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018

Areas affected...Southwest KS...OK/TX Panhandles...Far Northeast NM

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 122017Z - 122215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few severe thunderstorms may develop within the next
several hours. Trends are being monitored for a possible watch.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low just east of GUY
in the OK Panhandle. A stationary front extends northeastward from
this low into northeast KS while a diffuse trough extends southwestward/westward back to another low near the Raton Mesa.
Surface convergence is increasing east of this low (and attendant
surface boundaries) across the northeast TX Panhandle and eastern OK
Panhandle. This convergence is occurring amidst strong daytime
heating and boundary-layer mixing, with surface temperatures across
the region currently in the upper 90s/low 100s. Steep mid-level
lapse rates atop these warm and moist conditions is resulting in
strong instability (i.e. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg). Modest instability
extends back west to the Raton Mesa, where storms are developing
across the higher terrain.

According to mesoanalysis and modified RAP soundings, heating and
mixing has eroded any convective inhibition, evidenced by the
increasingly agitated cumulus field across the area. Continued
attempts at convective initiation are expected to eventually result
in the development of a few thunderstorms, primarily across the
eastern TX/OK Panhandles. Isolated large hail and/or strong
downburst winds are the primary severe threat.

Uncertainty regarding severe storm coverage given modest deep-layer
shear currently precludes higher watch probabilities but convective
trends will be monitored closely.

..Mosier/Nauslar/Grams.. 06/12/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 37129937 37479946 37849995 37970052 37930073 37840092
37630119 37130182 36970252 37090359 36430381 35760333
35340213 34790092 34829980 36299937 37129937



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