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ACUS11 KWNS 052355
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052354
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-060200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0648
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 PM CDT Tue Jun 05 2018

Areas affected...Southeast MT...Northeast WY...Western
SD...Southwest ND

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 052354Z - 060200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Convective evolution is uncertain, but at least isolated
severe wind/hail will be possible into this evening.

DISCUSSION...At 2345Z, convection is rapidly intensifying across
southeast MT, with elevated storms noted further north into
east-central MT. This activity appears to be associated with a
midlevel shortwave trough moving through central/eastern MT.
Forecast soundings modified for observed surface conditions indicate
a relative minimum in MLCINH across southeast MT into northwest SD,
indicating the potential for surface-based storms. MLCAPE of
1500-2500 J/kg and effective shear of 40-50 kts are supportive of
organized storm structures, including the potential for supercells
with an associated large hail risk. The evolution of this convection
is uncertain given stronger capping noted further east, but at least
a small window exists with the potential for a supercell or two from
southeast MT into northwest SD and potentially far southwest ND.

Further south, a thunderstorm cluster is spreading northeastward
across western SD. This convection initiated in a region of weaker
midlevel flow/effective shear, and as a result has quickly become
outflow dominant. A short-term threat for severe wind gusts (and
possibly marginally severe hail) will exist with this activity,
before it likely weakens later this evening as it moves into a
strongly capped environment further east. In addition, the outflow
from this cluster will eventually spread into northwest SD/southwest
ND, and may interact with the developing convection in that region
with some potential for upscale growth.

Given the uncertainties mentioned above, the need for watch issuance
remains unclear, though if convection across southeast MT continues
to intensify, a watch may be needed to cover that threat in addition
to the threat further northeast, which was covered in MCD 647.

..Dean/Hart.. 06/05/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON 43150341 43360387 44060438 45060476 45720483 46430485
46740489 46810445 46950344 46880297 46620266 46200243
45180219 44330212 43300215 43120276 43150341



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