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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0565

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, May 29, 2018 18:56:03
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    ACUS11 KWNS 291855
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 291855
    OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-292000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0565
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0155 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

    Areas affected...Southwestern/South-central
    Kansas...northwestern/north-central Oklahoma...and portions of the
    Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles

    Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

    Valid 291855Z - 292000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...A tornado watch will likely be needed this afternoon as
    convection increases in intensity and coverage across the discussion
    area this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Objective analyses and satellite indicate an
    increasingly unstable airmass along and south of a remnant outflow
    boundary left behind from earlier convection very near the
    Kansas/Oklahoma border area. The pre-convective environment was
    weakly capped and characterized by strong instability (2000-3000
    J/kg MUCAPE) and deep shear values around 40-50 kt, favoring
    organization. A few convective attempts have already been noted
    along the outflow about 50 miles south of Dodge City, and as storms
    continue to develop in this corridor and interact with the remnant
    outflow, all modes of severe will become increasingly likely,
    including a few tornadoes and very large (2"+) hail.

    Given the aforementioned convective trends, a Tornado Watch will
    likely be needed shortly.

    ..Cook/Squitieri/Hart.. 05/29/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

    LAT...LON 35930112 36400139 36940145 37300120 37760038 38029928
    38149827 38119762 37399706 36599697 35779739 35539863
    35600003 35930112



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