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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0888

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, June 26, 2018 17:19:35
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    ACUS11 KWNS 261719
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 261718
    OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-261845-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0888
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1218 PM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

    Areas affected...Eastern Indiana...Northern Kentucky...Western and
    Central Ohio

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 261718Z - 261845Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Line of storms will move east with a marginal wind threat
    through mid-afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Relatively clear skies ahead of the line of storms
    entering western Ohio has led to some boundary layer destabilization
    (MLCAPE 500 to 1500). Modifying the 12Z ILN sounding for the 17Z
    observation 79/72 yields nearly uninhibited sounding (CINH ~ 25
    J/kg). Additional warming will lead to an uncapped environment early
    this afternoon. While upper-level flow (10 km) has increased to near
    40 knots via the 17Z ILN VWP, up from ~20 knots at 12Z ILN sounding,
    deep-layer shear remains on the weaker end (~25 to 30 kts).
    Therefore, storms entering western Ohio will likely continue their
    intensity for the next hour or two, but are expected to weaken by
    mid-afternoon as they become increasingly outflow dominant outrun
    the best deep layer shear. The best opportunity for stronger storms
    will be in southern Ohio and northern Kentucky on the nose of the
    500 mb speed max where mid-level flow is somewhat stronger, and
    where buoyancy is slightly higher (~1500 J/kg).

    ..Bentley/Thompson.. 06/26/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...

    LAT...LON 40708472 40788402 40708366 40628327 40458277 40328260
    40088251 39848252 39568259 39468274 39228287 39038299
    38868317 38808336 38798372 38868430 38918478 38968505
    39108520 39488488 40048464 40708472



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