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ACUS11 KWNS 260719
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260719
ILZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-260915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0883
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 AM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

Areas affected...southern Missouri and southern Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 260719Z - 260915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are ongoing and slowly intensifying across
southwest and south-central Missouri. Isolated hail, potentially up
to 1" in diameter, will be possible with the strongest thunderstorms
through the morning as the storms move northeast. The isolated
nature of the threat should preclude the need for a watch.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are developing and slowly increasing in
both coverage and intensity across southwest and south-central
Missouri. These thunderstorms appear to be tied to isentropic ascent
associated with moisture advection within a 20-30 knots
southwesterly low-level jet (per KSGF VAD). For example,
850-millibar dewpoint temperatures have warmed from around 10.5C at
00Z (per SGF sounding) to around 13-14 C per latest RUC/Mesoanalysis
data across southwest Missouri.

The large-scale pattern will maintain the low-level jet through the
overnight, which should maintain moist advection. This continued
isentropic ascent will continue to allow parcels to ascend to their
level of free convection through the morning, which, in turn, should
maintain the ongoing convection and support new convection through
at least sunrise. Deep-layer shear on the order of 30-40 knots and
an increase in most-unstable CAPE values to between 1000-1500 J/kg
will support gradual updraft intensification and organization. The
result will be a potential for the strongest thunderstorms to
produce hail -- some of which may be severe -- as they move off to
the northeast.

At this time, a watch is currently not expected owing to the
isolated nature of the severe threat. However, convective trends
will continue to be monitored.

..Marsh/Guyer.. 06/26/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...

LAT...LON 36939486 37949388 39599121 38198994 36649362 36939486



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