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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0794

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, June 19, 2018 20:10:06
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 192010
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 192009
    NEZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-192215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0794
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0309 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

    Areas affected...Western Kansas and Southwest Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

    Valid 192009Z - 192215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms will continue to develop across western Kansas and
    eventually into southwest Nebraska. Large hail and damaging winds
    are likely with an isolated tornado risk.

    DISCUSSION...Storms have begun to initiate across far southeast
    Colorado and western Kansas among a building cumulus field along a
    surface front. Effective bulk shear of 30-50 knots and MLCAPE of
    1500-3000 J/kg should support vigorous, rotating updrafts and
    possibly supercell development. With little to no capping, numerous
    updrafts should form and build upscale rather quickly into a
    multi-cell cluster that could form a late evening to overnight MCS.
    There is the possibility of redevelopment behind the initial storms
    along the surface front and anticipated outflow boundaries ahead of
    the approaching storms in eastern Colorado. Large hail and damaging
    winds are likely with an isolated tornado risk.

    ..Nauslar/Weiss.. 06/19/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...BOU...

    LAT...LON 37050202 40990205 41080129 41309957 41279890 40939844
    40469809 39959797 39599799 39149831 38289924 37849959
    37459992 36970027 37050202



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