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ACUS11 KWNS 191748
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191748
OKZ000-COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-191945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0791
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

Areas affected...Eastern Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 191748Z - 191945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to develop across eastern
Colorado this afternoon including supercells. Large hail and
damaging winds are likely and a few tornadoes are possible.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows building cumulus
along the Front Range with a thunderstorm near Boulder. Storms will
continue developing along the Front Range and move eastward during
the afternoon. An upper-level speed maxima is moving into the region
that will help ascent and aid updraft development associated with
upslope flow. Effective bulk shear of 40-55 knots and forecast
MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg should result in a conducive environment
for strong to severe thunderstorms. While low level flow remains
relatively weak, easterly surface winds with stronger southwest flow
aloft should provide enough veering in the profile to support
rotating updrafts.

Latest HRRR guidance shows a few discrete supercells forming along
and east of the Front Range and continuing eastward through the
afternoon. A multi-cell cluster should form in southeast Colorado
separate from the Front Range convection in the vicinity of a
surface low and front. These could merge later and form a downstream
MCS into the evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few
tornadoes are all possible if not likely especially with the
strongest storms.

..Nauslar/Peters/Weiss.. 06/19/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 41020550 40980514 40980364 41000228 40830211 39540215
37970211 37090215 36990267 37080374 37040439 37610479
38220503 38980501 39520511 40220525 40590536 41020550



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