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ACUS11 KWNS 240142
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240142
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-240245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0507
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0842 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Areas affected...far eastern New Mexico and portions of west Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 118...

Valid 240142Z - 240245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 118
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat will linger through the scheduled
expiration of WW 118 (03Z). An isolated hail/wind threat will exist
just east of the Watch during this period as well.

DISCUSSION...Ongoing convection has propagated into the far eastern
portions of WW 118 at this time, and a few storms have exited WW 118
into portions of the Texas South Plains. A notable weakening trend
has commenced with the ongoing activity - likely due to gradually
weaker lapse rates/buoyancy with eastward extent. Nevertheless, forward-propagating clusters/linear segments amidst weak to moderate instability (1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE) will continue to foster isolated
hail/wind threat for the next 1-1.5 hours within stronger
thunderstorm cores. Increasing low-level flow may sustain a few
storms beyond this time frame, although the stabilizing boundary
layer is expected to mitigate the overall threat.

Remaining portions of WW 118 that have stabilized due to prior
convection may be cancelled early.

..Cook.. 05/24/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36680373 36900329 36720268 35860231 34150225 32080215
31200210 30440237 29740264 29180289 28980322 29040379
29330430 29790462 30240470 30540432 31240386 32200371
33160356 33980356 34730371 35470386 35820383 36680373



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ACUS11 KWNS 022338
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022337
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-030100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0507
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 PM CDT Thu May 02 2019

Areas affected...the Bootheel of Missouri...southwest
Kentucky...Northwest Tennessee...and far northeast Arkansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 121...122...

Valid 022337Z - 030100Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 121, 122 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe weather threat continues within tornado watch
121 and 122. Tornado watch 121 will likely be allowed to expire at
00Z as the tornado threat has mostly shifted into tornado watch 122.

DISCUSSION...Rotating storms continue on the leading edge of a MCV
now located in far northeast Arkansas. This MCV is expected to
continue to move east northeastward along a stationary front which
is currently located near the intersection of AR/TN, and MO and
continues east-northeast to slightly north of Nashville, TN. A
reservoir of higher theta-e air resides along this boundary with
dewpoints in the 68F to 70F range. This will continue to provide
adequate low-level buoyancy for strong updrafts through the evening
even as the boundary layer begins to cool. Higher low-level
vorticity along this surface front and added low-level shear due to
the MCV will continue to support the potential for rotating updrafts
and brief tornadoes.

..Bentley.. 05/02/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON 36399029 36679021 36958964 37128869 36978777 36588801
36128846 35738938 35629003 36099035 36399029



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