This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1527104259-1857-2794
Content-Type: text/plain

ACUS11 KWNS 231937
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231936
SDZ000-NEZ000-232130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0500
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Areas affected...South-central South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 231936Z - 232130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms will be possible this afternoon. A
WW will be possible should trends in coverage/intensity of storms
increase.

DISCUSSION...Strong surface heating has occurred over south-central
South Dakota with temperatures in the low 80s. Along with dewpoints
in the upper-60s to low 70s, strong instability is present with
greater than 3000 J/kg SBCAPE present coincident with 25-30 kts of
effective deep-layer shear, per RAP analysis. Visible satellite
imagery has shown an area of cumulus developing along a line from
Brule County to Tripp County. Some CAMs guidance suggests that
storms will develop in this area by 22Z. While development remains
uncertain, the environment present will be favorable for strong to
severe storms with an isolated severe hail and wind threat. A WW
will be possible should trends in coverage/intensity of storms
increase.

..Wendt/Hart.. 05/23/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON 45869928 45859873 45529808 43919793 43329843 42979905
43059964 43430020 43910060 44570072 45210049 45830002
45869928



------------=_1527104259-1857-2794
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1527104259-1857-2794--

--- SBBSecho 3.04-Linux
* Origin: CCO BBS - capitolcityonline.net:26 (1:2320/105)

This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1556817787-1967-7520
Content-Type: text/plain

ACUS11 KWNS 021723
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021722
KYZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-021915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0500
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Thu May 02 2019

Areas affected...extreme southeast Indiana...far southwest
Ohio...central into eastern Kentucky...northern Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 021722Z - 021915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts and a few instances of marginally
severe hail are possible with renewed convection associated with
outflow from earlier storms. Convective trends with this new
development are being monitored for a possible WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...Convective outflow continues to propagate eastward
across portions of the Ohio Valley in association with a weakening
cold pool from the remnants of a previous MCS. Though weak
deep-layer and low-level shear has allowed the aforementioned cold
pool to outrun earlier convective cells, this outflow has recently
propagated into a low-level thermodynamic environment characterized
by deep low-level moisture and up to 8 C/km 0-3km lapse rates,
yielding well over 100 J/kg 0-3km CAPE (given ample insolation in
place). As such, the initiation of multicellular convection has been
underway for the last 2 hours.

Continued solar radiation (resulting in further increasing
buoyancy), combined with increasing synoptic scale deep-layer ascent
associated with an approaching vorticity maximum upstream in the
Missouri Valley, will promote further development of additional
convective cells/linear clusters through the early to mid-afternoon
hours. The weak shear environment suggests that individual
cells/clusters will likely not become particularly
organized/long-lived, though ample low-level buoyancy may support
the development of vigorous updrafts and in turn, water-loaded
downdrafts capable of damaging wind gusts. A few instances of
marginally severe hail also cannot be ruled out.

Convective trends are being monitored in order to ascertain how many
intense updrafts/line segments, supportive of severe wind gusts, may
develop and organize.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/02/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON 36488480 36528623 36698675 36928666 37508604 38468536
39108518 39358507 39378459 39328382 39228327 39088324
38698289 38008269 37228303 36488480



------------=_1556817787-1967-7520
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1556817787-1967-7520--

--- SBBSecho 3.06-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)