• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0500

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, May 23, 2018 19:37:33
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    ACUS11 KWNS 231937
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 231936
    SDZ000-NEZ000-232130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0500
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0236 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

    Areas affected...South-central South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 231936Z - 232130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms will be possible this afternoon. A
    WW will be possible should trends in coverage/intensity of storms
    increase.

    DISCUSSION...Strong surface heating has occurred over south-central
    South Dakota with temperatures in the low 80s. Along with dewpoints
    in the upper-60s to low 70s, strong instability is present with
    greater than 3000 J/kg SBCAPE present coincident with 25-30 kts of
    effective deep-layer shear, per RAP analysis. Visible satellite
    imagery has shown an area of cumulus developing along a line from
    Brule County to Tripp County. Some CAMs guidance suggests that
    storms will develop in this area by 22Z. While development remains
    uncertain, the environment present will be favorable for strong to
    severe storms with an isolated severe hail and wind threat. A WW
    will be possible should trends in coverage/intensity of storms
    increase.

    ..Wendt/Hart.. 05/23/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

    LAT...LON 45869928 45859873 45529808 43919793 43329843 42979905
    43059964 43430020 43910060 44570072 45210049 45830002
    45869928



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, May 02, 2019 17:23:03
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    ACUS11 KWNS 021723
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 021722
    KYZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-021915-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0500
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1222 PM CDT Thu May 02 2019

    Areas affected...extreme southeast Indiana...far southwest
    Ohio...central into eastern Kentucky...northern Tennessee

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 021722Z - 021915Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts and a few instances of marginally
    severe hail are possible with renewed convection associated with
    outflow from earlier storms. Convective trends with this new
    development are being monitored for a possible WW issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Convective outflow continues to propagate eastward
    across portions of the Ohio Valley in association with a weakening
    cold pool from the remnants of a previous MCS. Though weak
    deep-layer and low-level shear has allowed the aforementioned cold
    pool to outrun earlier convective cells, this outflow has recently
    propagated into a low-level thermodynamic environment characterized
    by deep low-level moisture and up to 8 C/km 0-3km lapse rates,
    yielding well over 100 J/kg 0-3km CAPE (given ample insolation in
    place). As such, the initiation of multicellular convection has been
    underway for the last 2 hours.

    Continued solar radiation (resulting in further increasing
    buoyancy), combined with increasing synoptic scale deep-layer ascent
    associated with an approaching vorticity maximum upstream in the
    Missouri Valley, will promote further development of additional
    convective cells/linear clusters through the early to mid-afternoon
    hours. The weak shear environment suggests that individual
    cells/clusters will likely not become particularly
    organized/long-lived, though ample low-level buoyancy may support
    the development of vigorous updrafts and in turn, water-loaded
    downdrafts capable of damaging wind gusts. A few instances of
    marginally severe hail also cannot be ruled out.

    Convective trends are being monitored in order to ascertain how many
    intense updrafts/line segments, supportive of severe wind gusts, may
    develop and organize.

    ..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/02/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...

    LAT...LON 36488480 36528623 36698675 36928666 37508604 38468536
    39108518 39358507 39378459 39328382 39228327 39088324
    38698289 38008269 37228303 36488480



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