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ACUS11 KWNS 200441
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200441
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-200645-

Mesoscale Discussion 0800
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

Areas affected...Southern/central Kansas...northwest
Oklahoma...eastern Oklahoma Panhandle...far southeast Colorado...far
northeast Texas Panhandle

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 193...194...

Valid 200441Z - 200645Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 193, 194
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watches
0193 and 0194, but a slow downward trend in convective intensity is
expected during the overnight hours.

DISCUSSION...An organized MCS is propagating southeast across Severe Thunderstorm Watches 0193 and 0194, with severe wind gusts over 60
knots observed within the strongest portion of the line from Gray to
Pawnee Counties within the last hour. Gusts up to 65 knots were also
recently observed in Seward County, Kansas.

With a strong surge of the cold pool in progress, along with
adequate effective bulk shear oriented normal to the MCS leading
line, a few more instances of damaging wind gusts are possible
within the next few hours. Still, recent RAP point forecast
soundings indicate a stabilizing boundary layer, and a downward
trend in intense cores along the leading line of the MCS were noted
near DDC in the latest few radar scans. As such, a slow downward
trend in severity is likely as the MCS slowly weakens throughout the
evening.

..Squitieri/Jirak/Guyer.. 06/20/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON 36390155 36750186 37040244 37350293 37750298 38300287
38310224 37910153 37710108 37930039 38209999 38409940
38909937 39239919 39579849 39679803 39419742 39209701
38999654 38559631 38229631 37959659 37519710 37099769
36649825 36229886 35909940 35910023 36010108 36390155



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