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ACUS11 KWNS 131931
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131930
VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-132030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0722
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018

Areas affected...portions of northwest PA...western into northern NY

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 131930Z - 132030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will move east from Ontario into western NY
later this afternoon. Isolated severe hail/50-65mph winds will
accompany the stronger thunderstorms. Lower thunderstorm
coverage/lower confidence for severe thunderstorms is expected
farther south in northern PA.

DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a cumulus field over
western NY into northwest PA as a thicker cloud shield
dissipates/moves east into central NY. Recent subjective surface
analysis indicated a moist axis extended from the OH Valley
northeastward into northwest PA and western NY. Surface dewpoints
within this corridor range from 66-70 degrees F and temperatures are
warming into the lower 80s---effectively resulting in the
development of moderate buoyancy (1500 J/kg MLCAPE) from the Finger
Lakes southwestward into northwest PA.

Water-vapor imagery also shows a well defined mid-level shortwave
trough moving across the Great Lakes with a 70kt 500mb speed max
moving east through the base of the trough over southeast Lower MI
and southwest Ontario. As of 315pm EDT, 60kt westerly flow was
sampled by the KBUF VAD, indicating the stronger mid-level flow is
moving into far western NY. With the strengthening flow and
moderate buoyancy, organized multicells and supercells are possible
with the primary hazards being isolated hail/damaging winds. The
veered southwesterly flow in the low levels will likely limit the
potential tornado risk with any supercell.

..Smith/Grams.. 06/13/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON 41297901 41717693 43367405 44737295 45047485 43477696
43337896 41887995 41297901



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