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ACUS11 KWNS 160032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160031
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-160200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0274
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0731 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Areas affected...Central VA...Central/Southeast NC...Northeast SC

Concerning...Tornado Watch 53...54...

Valid 160031Z - 160200Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 53, 54 continues.

SUMMARY...Tornado threat continues across Tornado Watches 53 and 54.

DISCUSSION...Organized convective line continues to progress
eastward into central VA, central NC, and northeast SC. Strong
low-level flow exists ahead of the line. Regional VAD profiles have
recently sampled 0-1 km bulk shear around 40 to 50 kt and 0-1 km SRH
from 300 to 500 m2 per s2. This type of kinematic environment
remains supportive of embedded QLCS tornadoes as well as damaging
wind gusts. Thermodynamic environment is a little less favorable but
enough instability (i.e. MLCAPE greater than 500 J/kg per the latest mesoanalysis) exist to support continued progression of the
convective line. The northern extent of the severe threat is
constrained by the wedge front draped from eastern WV across
north-central VA and into the southern Delmarva Peninsula. The
southern extent of the threat extends to the northeast SC/southeast
NC coast.

..Mosier.. 04/16/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...

LAT...LON 37738014 38227955 38247777 37287704 34557752 33147940
33768032 35147989 36527928 37738014



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ACUS11 KWNS 071029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071029
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-071230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0274
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0529 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2019

Areas affected...parts of northeast TX...northern LA...southern and
eastern AR...northwest MS and extreme southwest TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 071029Z - 071230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Convection will continue across the Ark-La-Tex vicinity
this morning, posing mainly a threat for small hail over the next
couple of hours. While a greater severe threat is not expected in
the short-term, storms may become better organized later this
morning.

DISCUSSION...Convection is ongoing this morning in a zone of warm
advection and modest ascent. Over the last couple of hours, storms
have had periods of intensification, with marginal hail reported
across northern LA. This band of convection will likely persist and
even increase in coverage in an airmass characterized by 1000-2000
J/kg MUCAPE, midlevel lapse rates near 7-7.5 C/km and effective
shear values greater than 40 kt.

In the short term, convection will remain elevated given only weak
ascent across the region currently. However, guidance suggests that
as boundary layer inhibition decreases after sunrise, and deep layer
shear increases, some potential will exist for organized clusters or
bowing line segments to develop. This could result in an increasing
wind threat with time into mid-morning and early afternoon. For now,
the main threat will remain marginal hail for the next couple of
hours.

..Leitman/Thompson.. 04/07/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...FWD...

LAT...LON 32229592 31829568 31629490 31859376 32869189 34279007
34678976 35088944 35588944 35798985 35819033 35549098
34699221 33689405 32979562 32569590 32229592



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