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ACUS11 KWNS 060427
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060426
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-060600-

Mesoscale Discussion 0649
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 PM CDT Tue Jun 05 2018

Areas affected...northern South Dakota through southeast North
Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 155...

Valid 060426Z - 060600Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 155
continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind and hail should persist through
the early morning from northern South Dakota into southeast North
Dakota. At least a modest severe threat could evolve east of WW 155
into a few counties of northwest MN. Though a downstream WW is not
anticipated in the near term, WW 155 can be locally extended farther
east as needed.

DISCUSSION...Forcing for ascent attending an eastward-advancing
shortwave trough has contributed to development of numerous storms
across eastern ND, primarily in post frontal region where the
atmosphere remains moderately unstable with MUCAPE around 1500 J/kg.
Despite the post-frontal nature of the storms, steep mid-level lapse
lapse rates (up to 8.5 C/km 700-500 mb), moderate instability and
effective bulk shear sufficient for elevated supercell structures
will continue to support a threat for large to very large hail next
couple hours while storms are still discrete. Isolated damaging wind
may also accompany the stronger cores. Some storms are approaching
the eastern bound of WW 155 along the ND/MN border where a warm
front resides. The atmosphere east of the warm front is not as
unstable, but some destabilization will occur as this boundary
shifts east, suggesting some severe threat could expand into a
couple of rows of counties in northwest MN during the next hour or
so.

Farther southwest across SD, numerous storm mergers have occurred,
and storms have evolved into a forward propagating MCS. Damaging
wind and hail will remain possible as this cluster continues east
next few hours.

..Dial.. 06/06/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 47399903 47979792 48109724 47519686 46449696 45839723
45119862 44929968 45080075 45740073 46380024 47399903



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