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ACUS11 KWNS 152145
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152145
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-152315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0272
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0445 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Areas affected...Central/Western VA....Central NC....Eastern SC

Concerning...Tornado Watch 52...53...

Valid 152145Z - 152315Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 52, 53 continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes will continue
for the next few hours across Tornado Watches 52 and 53.

DISCUSSION...A strong convective line continues to progress
northeastward at 35-40 kt across western VA, central NC, and
northeast SC. Recent KRAX radar imagery showed a strong rotation
signature accompanied by a minimum in the correlation coefficient
moving across Guilford county. These embedded circulations will
remain possible for the next few hours, particularly with any storm
mergers than occur with more discrete storms developing ahead of the
line. Wind fields across the region remain quite strong (0-6 km bulk
shear over 55 kt per recent KRAX VAD data). Mesoanalysis suggests
higher shear farther north across VA. Low-level helicity (over 340
m2 per s2 from 0-3 km from KRAX) is also supportive of updraft
rotation. Expectation is for the convective line to continue
northeastward from the next several hours with damaging wind gusts
and tornadoes possible. Southern portions of this line will likely
approach the edge of the watch within the next hour and extension in
area may be needed across portions of far southeast NC and adjacent
far northeast NC.

Farther south (into SC), a second, weaker convective line continues
to move northeastward across CHS's CWA. Some modest strengthening of
the updrafts within this line has been noted over the past hour.
Damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado remain possible over
the remaining portions of Tornado Watch 52.

..Mosier.. 04/15/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 36378061 37858009 37957867 37167815 34667855 32797928
32628089 35078083 36378061



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ACUS11 KWNS 070601
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070600
TXZ000-070730-

Mesoscale Discussion 0272
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2019

Areas affected...portions of southern TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 070600Z - 070730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible
overnight into the early morning hours across much of southern Texas
as a cluster of storms in Mexico cross the Rio Grande and shift
eastward.

DISCUSSION...The severe threat will continue to increase overnight
as a cluster of storms over the higher terrain of Mexico shifts east
across parts of the Hill Country and points south. This convection
is being forced by increasing ascent as the southern stream
shortwave trough ejects over northern Mexico. The downstream
environment is characterized by a very moist boundary layer with
upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints beneath midlevel lapse rates around
8-8.5 C/km. This is resulting in MUCAPE values around 2000-3000
J/kg. Low level easterly flow through the lowest 1km or so is
relatively weak, ranging from about 10-15 kt, but should increase
slightly with time. A quasi-stationary front is draped across the
region from northern Maverick County east/northeast into
east-central TX. Hi-res guidance suggests convection will organize
and travel roughly along and south of this boundary in the more
pristine warm sector airmass.

Given very steep midlevel lapse rates, hail will be likely in
embedded stronger updrafts/supercells. Storm mode could temper a
more significant hail threat, though some very large hail cannot be
ruled out. While boundary layer inhibition is quite strong at this
point, strong forcing should be sufficient to weaken low level
inhibition sufficiently for some damaging wind threat as well.
Convection will track eastward across much of southern TX through
the overnight hours and a watch will be within the next hour or so.

..Leitman/Thompson.. 04/07/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

LAT...LON 29639872 29629810 29469749 29079701 28759675 28489660
28239656 27969685 27659711 27429731 27249753 27139787
27159887 27259947 27589973 27799995 28080014 28270035
28610053 29080073 29260063 29460013 29639872



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