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ACUS11 KWNS 242316
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242315
KSZ000-COZ000-250015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0514
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0615 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

Areas affected...East-central CO...West-central KS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 119...

Valid 242315Z - 250015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 119
continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for strong wind gusts and isolated hail continue
across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 119.

DISCUSSION...Strong diurnal heating and modest moisture combined
with surface convergence led to the development of isolated
thunderstorms across east-central CO during the past hour or so. The
initial storm developed a strong outflow quickly, leading to the
initiation of additional storms along the eastward progressing
boundary. Mid-level flow across the region is weak but enough
veering with height exists to support modest vertical shear (i.e.
0-6 km bulk shear around 30 kt). Given this vertical shear and
adequate instability, severe hail is possible with initial updraft
development. Thereafter, relatively dry atmospheric profiles will
result in the development of additional outflow and the potential
for strong wind gusts.

..Mosier.. 05/24/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON 37860191 38160300 38680341 39540326 39780283 39800101
39590013 38200018 37860191



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ACUS11 KWNS 031659
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031658 VAZ000-WVZ000-MDZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-031900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0514
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 AM CDT Fri May 03 2019

Areas affected...eastern Kentucky...eastern Tennessee...western
North Carolina...western Virginia...West Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 031658Z - 031900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Bands of convection are expected to develop across the MD
area this afternoon, with an attendant risk of damaging wind gusts
and marginally severe hail. A WW issuance may be needed pending
convective trends.

DISCUSSION...Recent satellite/radar mosaic imagery indicates a
continued increase in convection along an axis from near HTS south-southwestward to near MRX and north of ATL, with deepening
cumulus along central Appalachians areas and also in central
Kentucky. These trends are supported by insolation/surface warming
and ascent/cooling aloft associated with a mid-level wave
approaching the region from the west. The airmass just east of the
convective axis has now become moderately unstable (1500-2250 J/kg
MUCAPE), and although low-level wind fields are modest, strong
mid-level flow was contributing to 35-45 kt effective shear,
supportive of updraft organization.

With time, some upscale growth into linear convective segments is
expected within portions of the aforementioned convective axis,
which may support occasional severe wind gusts. This potential
appears to be most probable across portions of West Virginia ahead
of the mid-level wave. Isolated instances of hail cannot completely
be ruled out, though modest mid-level lapse rates should mitigate
the extent of this threat. Although not currently anticipated, a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch may eventually be considered for portions
of this region - especially if focused corridors of damaging-wind
potential become apparent.

..Cook/Guyer.. 05/03/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...
ILN...

LAT...LON 38938228 39128178 39438102 39588012 39617946 39397895
38787880 37857947 36708048 36028156 35378219 35038285
34968373 35348401 36558415 37358404 38218350 38638298
38938228



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