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ACUS11 KWNS 242048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242047
NVZ000-CAZ000-242245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0512
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

Areas affected...Western Nevada and vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 242047Z - 242245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for damaging wind gusts exists this afternoon
into the evening. A WW is not anticipated at this time.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery has indicated towering
cumulus developing along the Sierra. KRGZ has steadily shown an
increase in reflectivity values over the past half hour. Given these
trends and the approach of a mid-level trough, more wide-spread
initiation is likely in the next hour or so. A modified REV 18Z
sounding shows modest SBCAPE values approaching 1000 J/kg. A
relatively dry sub-cloud layer indicates that a risk of severe wind
gusts will be the main threat with any storms. Shear will be
sufficient for storm organization -- currently at 20-30 kts per RAP
analysis -- and should improve with the approach of the mid-level
wave. Given the expected limited storm coverage and modest buoyancy,
a WW is not expected at this time.

..Wendt/Hart.. 05/24/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LKN...REV...

LAT...LON 41091994 41161948 41151898 40921853 40551832 39991835
39451840 39361848 38721866 38391899 38331936 38701974
39142010 39832013 41091994



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ACUS11 KWNS 031239
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031239
TXZ000-031345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0512
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 AM CDT Fri May 03 2019

Areas affected...middle coastal plain of TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 031239Z - 031345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of supercells have recently developed within a
moist airmass immediately east of an eastward-moving MCV. A weak
tornado is possible in addition to a localized severe gust. The
localized nature of the expected threat will probably preclude a
watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows an MCV near San Antonio moving east
and a couple of supercells have developed. The CRP 12z raob showed
a very moist boundary layer (16 g/kg lowest 100mb mean mixing ratio)
with moderate buoyancy. Despite somewhat modest flow in the lowest
6km, the strongly veering profile has contributed to around 40kt
0-6km shear---supporting storm organization. Current expectation is
for the supercell risk to persist for another hour or two before
gradually diminishing. Nonetheless, a weak/brief tornado is
possible along with a locally damaging gust in the vicinity of a
mesocyclone.

..Smith/Edwards.. 05/03/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 28969764 29719713 30129692 29839641 29219632 28989660
28969764



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