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ACUS11 KWNS 241944
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241943
NMZ000-242145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0511
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

Areas affected...Portions of southeastern New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 241943Z - 242145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated threat for a severe wind gust exists within
the discussion area. Uncertainty about storm persistence and
coverage preclude WW issuance at this time.

DISCUSSION...Towering cumulus have persisted along the Sacramento
Mountains for the past hour or two. NLDN data have shown a few
strikes of lightning over the past half hour. Should these storms
move off of the higher terrain, they will encounter dewpoints in the
low- to mid-50s contributing to a moderately unstable environment
with 1500-2000 J/kg SBCAPE. Shear will be quite weak with RAP
analysis showing only 20 kts. Considerable uncertainty remains as to
whether any storms will move off the higher terrain which makes WW
issuance unlikely. However, should storms persist and propagate to
the east, a severe wind gust will be possible. While severe wind
will be the primary threat, steep mid-level lapse rates in place
make a marginal hail threat possible as well.

..Wendt/Hart.. 05/24/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 33500564 34060540 34170479 34010428 33450405 32670393
32420412 32170445 32180532 32760569 33500564



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ACUS11 KWNS 031045
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031045
TXZ000-031145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0511
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0545 AM CDT Fri May 03 2019

Areas affected...Deep South TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 031045Z - 031145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for organized severe thunderstorms appears
to be increasing early this morning in the Lower Rio Grande Valley.
A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed soon if 1) intensification
continues and/or 2) the movement of storms is southeast rather than south-southeast west of the Rio Grande.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows a bowing MCS with a pair of intense
updrafts near Laredo as of 540am CDT. The airmass over Deep South
TX is characterized as very moist with surface dewpoints in the
lower 70s degrees F and MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg. Although upper-air
forcing for ascent will likely remain fairly weak, effective shear
around 40kt supports severe storm organization. The primary threats
with this activity are isolated severe gusts and large to perhaps
localized very large hail if supercellular structure can be maintain
on the west flank of the organizing thunderstorm cluster.

..Smith/Edwards.. 05/03/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

LAT...LON 26399916 27469959 27689932 27499836 27469735 26609744
25929729 25999820 26399916



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