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ACUS11 KWNS 171939
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171938
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-172145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0441
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

Areas affected...Texas South Plains and Panhandle into southwest
Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 171938Z - 172145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will develop across much of the High Plains over
the next several hours, with severe hail and wind expected.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows strong heating across the
southern High Plains with temperatures over 90 F from eastern NM
into west TX. Meanwhile, an axis of low 60s F dewpoints extends from
northwest TX across southwest OK and into the TX and OK Panhandles.
East of there, relatively cooler air exists across northwest OK in
association with ongoing convection and clouds.

Visible imagery shows towering CU along the NM/TX border, as well as
across southeastern CO. These will be favored areas for development
as heating persists. Steep lapse rates aloft are supporting moderate instability, though the boundary layer is becoming deep and well
mixed. Storm mode is likely to vary from initially cellular to
forward propagating/outflow dominated. Veering winds with height may
support a few supercells capable of very large hail, especially in
close proximity to the low-level moist axis. Otherwise, damaging
winds are likely with any lines or bowing storms.

..Jewell/Weiss.. 05/17/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...SJT...GLD...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...

LAT...LON 33500257 34830261 38000281 38750234 38850160 38410078
37900044 36289990 34249954 33819940 33379959 33049997
32580092 32580210 33000248 33500257



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ACUS11 KWNS 251003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251002
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-251100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0441
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0502 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019

Areas affected...Far Northeast LA...West-Central/Central MS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 101...

Valid 251002Z - 251100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 101
continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for damaging winds continues across Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 101. The convective line will reach the edge of
the watch around 1030Z and a local extension in area may be needed
into more of central MS.

DISCUSSION...Organized convective line continues to move
northeastward at 40 kt into central MS. Despite moving into a less thermodynamically supportive airmass the line has maintained its
intensity and kept pace with its outflow, resulting in a sharp
reflectivity gradient along its leading edge. Downstream airmass
across central MS is a little cooler and less moist than where the
line is currently located. Consequently, instability is also
slightly weaker. Even so, the organized nature of the line will
likely allow it to persist downstream. At its current speed, the
line will reach the edge of the watch around 1030Z and a local
extension of the watch may be needed into more of central MS.

..Mosier.. 04/25/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 31359219 33809122 33808966 31349065 31359219



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