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ACUS11 KWNS 151042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151042
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-151215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0264
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0542 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Areas affected...far southeast Alabama...far southwest Georgia...and
the central Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Tornado Watch 50...

Valid 151042Z - 151215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 50 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe risk has diminished, with additional risk unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows convection weakening and become
more disorganized across the remainder of WW 50, with the leading
band of storms now near the eastern fringe of the watch. With weak
downstream instability and severe risk minimal at best, it appears
that threat has largely ended across the area and no downstream
watch appears necessary.

..Goss.. 04/15/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON 28648499 28788576 29628574 31878490 31928461 31308452
30228493 28648499



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ACUS11 KWNS 061810
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061809
LAZ000-TXZ000-ARZ000-061945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0264
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0109 PM CDT Sat Apr 06 2019

Areas affected...Central/Southeast/East TX

Concerning...Tornado Watch 38...

Valid 061809Z - 061945Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 38 continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for all severe hazards, including tornadoes,
continues across central, southeast, and east TX.

DISCUSSION...Warm-air advection continues to promote thunderstorm
development across the warm frontal zone extending from central TX
into western/northwestern LA. This frontal zone currently remains
fairly diffuse, but the ongoing precipitation coupled with daytime
heating and continue low-level moisture advection should allow the
front to sharpen over the next few hours. Presently, the sharpest
portion of the frontal zone extends from Milam County
eastward-northeastward to Sabine County (delineated fairly well by
the 70 deg F isotherm).

Elevated thunderstorms continue along north of this boundary with
steep mid-level lapse rates and strong vertical shear supporting
updrafts and occasionally instances of hail and/or strong wind
gusts.

Threat for more surface-based convective will increase over the next
several hours as low-level moisture advection continues and forcing
for ascent persists. Low- to mid-level southerly winds are expected
to increase during this time as well. These factors will lead to a
higher tornado threat.

..Mosier.. 04/06/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 31729848 33299402 32719401 30969399 30209629 29429849
31369846 31729848



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