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ACUS11 KWNS 211929
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211929
SCZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-ALZ000-212100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0811
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Thu Jun 21 2018

Areas affected...Far Eastern Alabama...Northern Georgia...and
Western South Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 211929Z - 212100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon
as storms develop and move northeastward.

DISCUSSION...Surface heating south of the expansive cloud shield in
Tennessee and Kentucky has led to moderate destabilization (~1500
J/kg) across eastern Alabama and northern Georgia. Storms developed
in this area ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. Unseasonably
strong flow (greater than 40 knots above 3 km via BMX VWP) across
this area has led to some multicell organization of these storms.
Given the continued destabilization of the downstream airmass and aforementioned stronger flow, expect storms to continue through the
afternoon with isolated stronger cells. Given the weak mid-level
lapse rates (~ 6 C/km via 12Z BMX and FFC RAOB), expect hail threat
to be limited. However, low-level lapse rates around 7.5 C/km to 8.0
C/km, per the latest RAP mesoanalysis, may occasionally allow
stronger winds to mix to the surface with isolated damaging winds
possible. In addition, precipitation loading in the updraft, given
the high PWAT airmass (1.75 to 2 inches per BMX and FFC RAOB), may
also increase the chance of wet downbursts. These storms may
struggle as they enter central South Carolina where instability
decreases due to a pocket of lower surface dewpoints, however, there
is still opportunity for this region to destabilize as moisture
continues to advect towards the area through the afternoon and
evening.

..Bentley/Dial.. 06/21/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...BMX...

LAT...LON 34318505 34688481 34868416 35098321 35028276 34948242
34698208 34518174 34358146 34108136 33868131 33678142
33468161 33158253 32928312 32598420 32288608 32718590
33148566 33438537 33918527 34318505



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