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ACUS11 KWNS 072316
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072316
SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-080115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0667
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0616 PM CDT Thu Jun 07 2018

Areas affected...Eastern Montana/northeastern Wyoming and western
Dakotas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 161...

Valid 072316Z - 080115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 161
continues.

SUMMARY...Risk for thunderstorms capable of producing severe hail
and wind will continue to increase across the northern High Plains
through early evening. An additional watch is possible across the
remainder of eastern Montana/western North Dakota within the next
hour or two.

DISCUSSION...Vigorous thunderstorm development has been occurring
across the Big Horn Basin, and particularly within low-level upslope
flow to the north/northeast, with more widely scattered/discrete
activity now well underway across the higher plains of eastern
Wyoming. Initiation of storms may also be underway near the surface
trough across eastern Montana, where boundary-layer CAPE is now
maximized (2000-3000+ J/kg) with inhibition becoming negligible.

Although deep-layer southwesterly mean flow is weak (on the order of
10-20 kt), modest vertical shear due to veering of winds with height
may contribute to increasing organization as convection intensifies
further and slowly spreads eastward during the next few hours. This
probably will be aided by south/southeasterly low-level jet
strengthening near the western Dakotas/Montana border area during
the 01-03Z time frame. As this occurs, and convectively generated
surface cold pools strengthen and consolidate, the risk for strong
surface gusts may become more widespread along a developing gust
front. Until then, severe hail and locally strong wind gusts likely
will accompany strongest storms.

..Kerr.. 06/07/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

LAT...LON 48090631 48560577 48750473 48230387 47420401 46730437
45800418 45160404 44570431 43600366 42900356 41820454
42640553 43910598 44450640 45320650 47060666 48090631



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