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ACUS11 KWNS 072145
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072144
TXZ000-072345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0666
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0444 PM CDT Thu Jun 07 2018

Areas affected...Northern Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 072144Z - 072345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An MCS pushing south out of Oklahoma will pose an isolated
severe wind gust and hail threat over the next hour or two.

DISCUSSION...Storms along the Red River have begun to surge
southward and are nearing DFW. Ahead of this line lies an unstable
environment characterized by 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, weak
flow aloft in this region has lead to storms remaining relatively
disorganized. The strongest cells have maintained MRMS MESH cores of
around an inch. Latest KFWS radar trends have indicated some signs
that the outflow boundary is pushing ahead of the line. Should this
continue, storms will likely weaken with time. Any storms that can
maintain intensity will pose a threat for isolated severe hail and
winds gusts. Given the generally disorganized nature of these
storms, a WW is not likely at this time.

..Wendt/Hart.. 06/07/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...

LAT...LON 32659802 33079771 33229696 33239534 33119453 32669413
32189419 31909521 31789719 32169791 32389803 32659802



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