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ACUS11 KWNS 071952
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071951
SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-072115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0664
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Thu Jun 07 2018

Areas affected...Portions of the northern High Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 071951Z - 072115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across
eastern Montana/Wyoming through late afternoon. Some strong/severe
storms will be possible, with an attendant threat of damaging winds
and large hail. Trends are being monitored for potential watch
issuance.

DISCUSSION...One-minute visible imagery highlight several maturing
cumulus fields over the region this afternoon, and a few convective
towers have been noted recently. Unlike areas farther west (i.e.,
over the northern Rockies), large-scale ascent here may be more
favorable for continued cooling/moistening aloft. Adjusted for
regional surface conditions, the 18Z GGW sounding suggests around
2000 J/kg of MLCAPE has materialized, with little, if any,
inhibition remaining.

Continued surface confluence over the High Plains is expected to
yield isolated to scattered convection within the next 1-3 hours.
Although deep-layer winds are not particularly organized, some
veering with height and approximately 20-30 kt of mid-level flow may
support organized multicell and brief supercell structures, capable
of damaging winds and large hail. Over time, steep low-level lapse
rates will likely encourage strong outflow/upscale growth, with the
threat transitioning to primarily damaging winds as cells accelerate
east towards the Dakotas. Convective trends are being monitored for
possible watch issuance by late afternoon.

..Picca/Weiss.. 06/07/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

LAT...LON 43180618 43400657 44950698 46350686 48570545 48420410
47620314 44550310 43190340 42970413 43070581 43180618



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