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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0595

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, May 31, 2018 21:31:42
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 312131
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 312131
    VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-312230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0595
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0431 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

    Areas affected...Southeast KY...northeast TN...and extreme southwest
    VA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 312131Z - 312230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Multiple storm/boundary mergers will support a threat of
    isolated downburst winds and/or marginally severe hail through about
    23z. The limited magnitude and duration of the threat suggest a
    watch is probably not necessary.

    DISCUSSION...An outflow boundary is moving southward into south
    central and southeast KY with ongoing convection, and is beginning
    to merge with outflow from a separate cluster in northeast middle
    TN. A narrow corridor of surface heating and moderate buoyancy
    remains in the corridor where these boundaries will merger over the
    next 1-2 hours, to the northwest of rain-cooled air across the
    southern Appalachians. Vertical shear is weak over the area of the
    boundary mergers, but low-midlevel lapse rates are sufficiently
    steep to support strong updrafts and downdrafts, with an attendant
    threat for isolated downbursts and/or marginally severe hail. The
    severe threat will persist through about 23z, with weakening of the
    convection expected thereafter.

    ..Thompson.. 05/31/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

    LAT...LON 36128320 36038383 36038454 36058483 36308488 36568509
    36648549 36748566 36918562 37018510 36918437 36788389
    36698332 36708285 36778229 36598213 36328225 36128320



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