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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0589

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, May 31, 2018 19:01:11
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 311901
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 311900
    OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-312030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0589
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0200 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

    Areas affected...far southern Lower Michigan...east-central into
    northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 311900Z - 312030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few strong wind gusts and small hail will be possible
    across parts of east-central and northeast IN into far southern
    Lower MI and northwest OH this afternoon. A watch is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Rich boundary layer moisture is present across the MCD
    area, with dewpoints from the mid 60s to near 70 F noted in 18z
    surface observations. Strong heating of this moist airmass has
    resulted in moderate instability, with MUCAPE values near 2000 J/kg.
    Modest midlevel lapse rates around 6.5-7 C/km were evident in RAP
    forecast sounding and mesoanalysis data, with steeper low level
    lapse rates resulting in DCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/kg. As a
    result, isolated to widely scattered storms have developed. Deep
    layer shear is weak across the region and this should limit overall organization. However, degree of instability will result in brief
    intense updrafts capable of small hail. Light low level flow coupled
    with the steep low level lapse rates/higher DCAPE values will
    further support occasional strong wind gusts with the most intense
    cells. Given the transient and marginal nature of the threat, a
    watch is not expected.

    ..Leitman/Hart.. 05/31/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...

    LAT...LON 41038651 41578601 42008551 42048515 41928479 41658440
    41228421 40438445 40148468 39808566 39748624 39878652
    40368671 40888654 41038651



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