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ACUS11 KWNS 181951
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181950
SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-182145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0451
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

Areas affected...eastern Wyoming into far western South Dakota and
the western Nebraska Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 181950Z - 182145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage will increase over the next few
hours. Some stronger storms could produce strong winds and hail. A
watch is not expected at this time.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed in upslope flow
along the higher terrain of eastern WY. Abundant sunshine across the
region has allowed temperatures to warm into the upper 60s, except
for parts of southeast WY where temperatures had only climbed to
near 60 degrees as of 19z. The southeastern portion of WY has
remained under more cloud cover related to overnight convective
debris on the north side of an outflow boundary that stretched from
eastern CO into northern KS. This area may take a bit longer to
become uncapped, compared to farther north.

Streamline analysis highlights moist upslope flow with dewpoints
across the High Plains of eastern WY and western SD/NE generally in
the low 50s. Expansive cumulus across the region is indicative of
the weakly unstable airmass noted in 19z mesoanalysis. 30 kt or less
of deep layer shear and weak forcing will limit organization as
storms move off of higher terrain. However, steep mid and low level
lapse rates will support some marginal hail and gusty wind threat
through the afternoon and evening. Given the marginal nature of the
threat, a watch is not expected at this time.

..Leitman/Weiss.. 05/18/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BOU...CYS...RIW...

LAT...LON 42540682 43230684 44040680 44350661 44540594 44570559
44510406 44510373 44220328 43820316 43400329 42540350
41640370 41010420 40970530 41360584 42540682



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------------=_1556293433-1967-4088
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ACUS11 KWNS 261543
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261542 COR NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-261730-

Mesoscale Discussion 0451
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1042 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019

Areas affected...from northern North Carolina into southeast
Pennsylvania and parts of New Jersey

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 261542Z - 261730Z

CORRECTED FOR SUMMARY

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Conditions will become increasingly favorable for severe
storms today, with the greatest threat across eastern Virginia,
southeast Pennsylvania, and parts of Maryland, New Jersey and
Delaware. Damaging winds appear likely, with a tornado or two
possible especially northern areas. The 1630Z outlook will reflect
an upgrade to ENH for parts of the MCD area, and one or more watches
are expected over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...A cold front is currently surging eastward across
western PA and VA, with a warm front from far northern VA across MD
and DE. Satellite imagery indicates clearing, and strong heating is
occurring across the warm sector with CIN being rapidly eroded. In
addition, widespread pressure falls exceeding 1.5 mb/hr were noted.

Storms are already forming near the moist axis, from northeast NC
across eastern VA and DE where dewpoints were solidly in the 60s F.
These storms may produce locally damaging winds as they move quickly northeastward with favorable low-level lapse rates and deep-layer
shear.

Later today, storms along the cold front will increase in intensity
as it encounters the heating air mass. A line of storms will result,
possibly a broken line of cells or QLCS, with damaging winds likely.
The strongest low-level shear will remain near the warm front, which
will lift northward into PA and NJ. Here, forecast soundings show
larger looping hodographs which may favor tornadoes, either with
supercells just ahead of or embedded within the line. In addition,
the relatively cool temperatures aloft near 700 mb will maximize
low-level instability which will also aid rotation in storms.

..Jewell/Hart.. 04/26/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RAH...

LAT...LON 36687577 36287587 35997655 36097715 36597786 37307801
38137818 38957845 39767823 40297779 40677659 40697585
40517520 40107473 39797460 38847482 38327504 37627549
37027582 36947586 36687577



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ACUS11 KWNS 261537
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261537
NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-261730-

Mesoscale Discussion 0451
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1037 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019

Areas affected...from northern North Carolina into southeast
Pennsylvania and parts of New Jersey

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 261537Z - 261730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Conditions will become increasingly favorable for severe
storms today, with the greatest threat across eastern Virginia,
southeast Pennsylvania, and parts of New Jersey and Delaware.
Damaging winds appear likely, with a tornado or two possible
especially northern areas. The 1630Z outlook will reflect an upgrade
to ENH for parts of the MCD area, and one or more watches are
expected over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...A cold front is currently surging eastward across
western PA and VA, with a warm front from far northern VA across MD
and DE. Satellite imagery indicates clearing, and strong heating is
occurring across the warm sector with CIN being rapidly eroded. In
addition, widespread pressure falls exceeding 1.5 mb/hr were noted.

Storms are already forming near the moist axis, from northeast NC
across eastern VA and DE where dewpoints were solidly in the 60s F.
These storms may produce locally damaging winds as they move quickly northeastward with favorable low-level lapse rates and deep-layer
shear.

Later today, storms along the cold front will increase in intensity
as it encounters the heating air mass. A line of storms will result,
possibly a broken line of cells or QLCS, with damaging winds likely.
The strongest low-level shear will remain near the warm front, which
will lift northward into PA and NJ. Here, forecast soundings show
larger looping hodographs which may favor tornadoes, either with
supercells just ahead of or embedded within the line. In addition,
the relatively cool temperatures aloft near 700 mb will maximize
low-level instability which will also aid rotation in storms.

..Jewell/Hart.. 04/26/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RAH...

LAT...LON 36687577 36287587 35997655 36097715 36597786 37307801
38137818 38957845 39767823 40297779 40677659 40697585
40517520 40107473 39797460 38847482 38327504 37627549
37027582 36947586 36687577



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