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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0258

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, April 14, 2018 23:03:00
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    ACUS11 KWNS 142302
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 142302
    WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-150500-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0258
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0602 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

    Areas affected...Central/eastern Minnesota eastward into Wisconsin

    Concerning...Heavy snow

    Valid 142302Z - 150500Z

    SUMMARY...Areas of moderate to heavy snow will gradually shift
    eastward into central Wisconsin over the next few hours. Closer to
    the WI/IL border, sleet and freezing rain will be the primary
    precipitation type.

    DISCUSSION...Bands of moderate to heavy snow continue from near the
    Minneapolis area into western Wisconsin currently. Additionally,
    radar mosaic, water vapor imagery, and objective analyses indicate
    an expanding area of precipitation across Illinois - likely tied to
    a developing warm conveyor just east of a cut-off mid-level low
    centered over northeastern Kansas. At the surface, cold advection
    continues across the discussion area on the northeastern periphery
    of a surface low near southern Iowa. Surface temperatures were in
    the low- to mid-20s F in Minnesota and central Wisconsin, with low
    30s temperatures noted in southern Wisconsin.

    With time, models and observations suggest an expansion of ongoing
    areas of snow into central Wisconsin, with localized rates exceeding
    1 inch per hour. Farther south closer to the freezing line (along
    the WI/IL border area and into southeastern Wisconsin), showers of
    freezing rain and sleet are more likely, which will result in
    accumulations on exposed surfaces. Furthermore, elevated buoyancy
    (resulting from steep mid-level lapse rates across the region) may
    result in areas of thunder in addition to convectively enhanced
    precipitation rates.

    ..Cook.. 04/14/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...

    LAT...LON 45449535 45959476 46209303 46079122 45728965 45228833
    44358786 43378786 43118782 42608814 42438951 42689095
    43639237 44229386 44459490 45449535



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, April 04, 2019 21:50:39
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 042050
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 042049
    LAZ000-TXZ000-042315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0258
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0349 PM CDT Thu Apr 04 2019

    Areas affected...Far East Texas...Western and Central Louisiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 042049Z - 042315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A threat for isolated large hail and strong wind gusts may
    develop over the next few hours across far east Texas into western
    and central Louisiana. A watch may become necessary late this
    afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a warm front
    extending northwestward across southwestern Louisiana into east
    Texas. A very moist airmass is located to the southwest of the
    boundary with surface dewpoints generally from the mid 60s to lower
    70s F. Surface temperatures have warmed into the lower 70s F across
    parts of southeast Texas where surface-based convection has
    initiated in the last hour. A pocket of moderate to strong
    instability (MLCAPE of 2000 to 3000 J/kg) is analyzed across
    southeast Texas by the RAP with instability decreasing with
    northeastward extent into western Louisiana. Convective coverage is
    expected to increase over the next few hours due to the approach of
    a shortwave trough currently moving through east-central Texas
    evident on water vapor imagery. This combined with the instability
    and moderate deep-layer shear should be enough for an isolated
    severe threat. The stronger storms may rotate and be accompanied by
    large hail. A few isolated damaging wind gusts will also be
    possible.

    ..Broyles/Hart.. 04/04/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...SHV...

    LAT...LON 31129443 29989365 29629300 29649216 30329155 31109189
    31889265 32009349 31129443



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