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ACUS11 KWNS 290206
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290206
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-290330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0933
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0906 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

Areas affected...Eastern MT...Most of ND...Far Northwest SD

Concerning...Tornado Watch 234...235...

Valid 290206Z - 290330Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 234, 235 continues.

SUMMARY...Maturing convective line will continue to pose a threat
for all severe hazards as it moves eastward across eastern MT and
into western ND. Discrete storms ahead of the line also pose a
threat for all severe hazards.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage across eastern MT has increased
over the past hour as the shortwave trough and attendant forcing for
ascent continues to progress northeastward. Overall radar
presentation indicates cold pool amalgamation has likely occurred
with these storms with the resulting convective line extending from
about 20 mi E of OLF southwestward to the storm 50 mi NNE of SHR.
Additionally, rotation within the reflectivity at the northern end
of the line suggests a MCV/book-end vortex has developed, validating
the overall organization of the convective system. Expectation is
for the line to progress eastward, maintained by moist low-level
inflow from a strengthening low-level jet and steep mid-level lapse
rates. Primary threat with this line is strong wind gusts, some of
which could be over 65 kt. Hail is also possible as are tornadoes,
particularly in any areas of the convective line where the outflow
surges forward.

A few discrete supercells also exist ahead of the convective line.
Supercell in Carter County MT continues to pose a tornado threat
(verified by storm-spotter video) as does the nearly stationary
storm over Dunn County ND. Very large hail and strong wind gusts are
also a threat from these discrete storms.

..Mosier.. 06/29/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON 47500722 48370487 48720182 48719875 48429793 46759769
45839835 44980303 44890590 45090666 45520709 46360740
47500722



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