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ACUS11 KWNS 282311
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282310
NEZ000-SDZ000-290115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0927
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0610 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

Areas affected...NE Panhandle...Central NE...Southwest/South-Central
SD

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 282310Z - 290115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Hail and strong wind gusts possible for the next hour or
two. Trends will be monitored for watch issuance. However, a watch
appears unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION...Persistent surface convergence, moisture advection, and
increasing large-scale lift ahead of the approaching shortwave
trough have resulted in a weakening of the convective inhibition
across the region. Recent mesoanalysis suggests a small portion of
southwest SD and adjacent portions of the NE Panhandle are now
uncapped. This reduction of convective inhibition is confirmed by
the quick development of the thunderstorm now over Sheridan County
NE. Immediate downstream airmass is strongly unstable with recent
mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE over 5000 J/kg. As a result, some
hail is likely with this storm. Additionally, given the dry
mid-level air noted on the 19Z UNR sounding and more recent forecast
soundings, potential exists for the development of strong downdraft
capable of severe wind gusts. This potential is mirrored by DCAPE
fields over 2000 J/kg on the most recent mesoanalysis.

Given the relatively small spatial extent of the uncapped or weakly
capped air, expectation is for a relatively confined severe threat.
Areas farther east are not as warm and are displaced farther south
from any forcing for ascent. As such, the need for a watch appears
unlikely at this point. However, trends will be monitored closely,
particularly given the potential for upscale growth amidst an
increasing low-level jet.

..Mosier/Edwards.. 06/28/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON 42750030 42050057 41610141 41480217 41540249 41730283
42150304 42610312 42990313 43410286 43730225 43880148
43640080 43350052 42750030



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