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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0920

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, June 28, 2018 18:06:44
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    ACUS11 KWNS 281806
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 281806
    NDZ000-282000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0920
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0106 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

    Areas affected...Central North Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

    Valid 281806Z - 282000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...A few supercells are expected to form this afternoon with
    large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes possible.

    DISCUSSION...A cu field north of Bismark has shown some deeper
    growth on GOES-16 1 minute mesosector. Modifying the 12Z Bismark
    sounding for 17Z surface conditions (86/70 at KHZE) yields a nearly
    uncapped mixed-layer parcel. Despite weak subsidence from building
    heights aloft, and warming 700mb temps due to an advecting EML,
    expect a few storms to develop in the next hour or two. With 50 to
    60 knots of effective shear and SBCAPE of 5000 J/kg south of this
    boundary, storms will quickly evolve into supercells. In addition,
    already steep mid-level lapse rates will continue to steepen through
    the afternoon. This kinematic and thermodynamic environment will be
    supportive of very large hail and damaging winds. In addition,
    backed surface winds and a veering wind profile between the surface
    and 3 km will support a few tornadoes, however, limited speed shear
    will be the primary limiting factor for a more significant tornado
    threat this afternoon. A watch is likely in the next hour or two.

    ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/28/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

    LAT...LON 47520270 47790259 47970225 48140127 48259981 48249918
    48139829 47939743 47619713 47359701 47159729 47089834
    47079950 46960047 47010120 47180233 47520270



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