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ACUS11 KWNS 252330
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252329
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-260130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0523
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0629 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

Areas affected...Iowa...far southwest Wisconsin...and extreme
northwest Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 252329Z - 260130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing/ongoing from central Iowa
northeast into southwest Wisconsin and will continue to move
south-southeast this evening. Additional thunderstorms may develop
to the southwest of these thunderstorms, across portions of central
into southwest Iowa. Although hail and gusty winds may be possible
at times with the strongest thunderstorms, the overall severe threat
will remain too limited for an additional watch.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms across northeast Iowa and southwest
Wisconsin have congealed into a small mesoscale cluster. Although
individual cells are moving generally east, general propagation of
the overall cluster will be more south-southeast, into the
instability axis that stretches from central Iowa northeast into
southern Wisconsin.

Southwest of this cluster, additional, more discrete, thunderstorms
are developing within a weak confluent zone extending from southwest
Iowa into northeast Iowa that is coincident with the previously
mentioned instability axis.

Within both regimes, thunderstorms may pose a brief hail and gusty
wind threat, but the pending loss of diurnal heating and lack of
large-scale ascent or deep-layer shear will result in an overall
weakening trend the next few hours. A new watch will not be required
south or east of existing WW 120.

..Marsh/Grams.. 05/25/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...
ABR...

LAT...LON 44589717 45609388 46289221 45988891 43088946 42479088
42699520 43449837 44589717



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ACUS11 KWNS 040132
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040132
TXZ000-040230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0523
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0832 PM CDT Fri May 03 2019

Areas affected...south central through south Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 127...

Valid 040132Z - 040230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 127
continues.

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to continue to pose a risk for
isolated hail and damaging wind across the remainder of south
central Texas within WW 127. Trends are being monitored for a
possible downstream WW.

DISCUSSION...A line of strong to severe storms continues southeast
at 30-35 kt through south central TX. Some bowing segments and an
occasional embedded supercell structure or two continue to be
observed. The downstream atmosphere is moderately unstable with
1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE, but the 00Z CRP RAOB suggests convective
inhibition will undergo some increase this evening as the surface
layer cools. Despite this, sufficient organization within the line
and an organized cold pool would indicate that convergence along the
leading gust fronts might be sufficient to maintain the storms into
portions of south through southeast Texas next few hours.

..Dial.. 05/04/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 28229896 28869703 30199648 30049581 29409562 28719606
27779757 27609871 27869925 28229896



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