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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0744

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, June 15, 2018 18:58:51
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 151858
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 151858
    NCZ000-SCZ000-152100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0744
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0158 PM CDT Fri Jun 15 2018

    Areas affected...Coastal South Carolina and North Carolina

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 151858Z - 152100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to form along the sea breeze
    and surface front farther inland over the Carolinas. There is a
    marginal severe risk for hail/wind.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are developing along the sea breeze
    across the Carolina coast, and storms are also beginning to form
    along a surface front farther inland over the Carolinas. Strong
    buoyancy (MLCAPE 2500+ J/kg) should support strong updrafts
    initially, but weak flow/shear will limit organization. Although,
    some stronger shear exists along the coast and offshore that may
    allow some upscale growth and organization.

    Convective temperatures are being reached across the region, which
    will allow updrafts to form readily and they should develop rapidly
    in the buoyant environment near surface boundaries before weakening
    and becoming more outflow dominant. However, latest guidance does
    suggest that these storms may be slightly stronger and more
    organized than typical summertime pulse thunderstorms. A marginal
    risk for severe hail/wind gusts does exist with the stronger storms,
    but the coverage should be too limited to warrant a watch.

    ..Nauslar/Goss.. 06/15/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...

    LAT...LON 34757993 34947930 35067867 34997769 34757713 34307708
    33667778 33427841 33027882 32647942 32528004 32858068
    33418132 33868120 34278072 34508034 34757993



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