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ACUS11 KWNS 141817
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141817
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-142015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0731
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018

Areas affected...Parts of northeastern Missouri and west-central
Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 141817Z - 142015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Ongoing MCS is moving southeast along a surface front with
strong wind gusts and hail possible. This area will be upgraded into
Marginal area with the 20z outlook.

DISCUSSION...The MCS that continued overnight across Iowa has begun
to accelerate to the southeast along a surface front and is moving
at approximately 30-40 knots. A cold pool trailing the initial line
of storms appears to be strengthening. The western portion of the
line is moving into an area with higher moisture content (surface
dewpoints in the low 70s) and the overall line of storms is moving
along the buoyancy gradient. Severe hail and strong wind gusts at
35-45 knots have been observed in the last 30 minutes as the line of
storms have intensified. Strong wind gusts and marginal severe hail
are possible as this line of storms moves southeast over the next
couple of hours. HRRR and HRRR-P do not resolve this complex well
leading to some uncertainty on how long/far these line of storms
will persist into the afternoon/evening. However, pulse storms
forming across eastern Missouri may merge into the trailing outflow
and could result in a marginal severe threat persisting into the
afternoon.

..Nauslar/Gleason/Grams.. 06/14/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...

LAT...LON 40869133 41129095 41019030 40619006 39829035 39439099
39379194 39469238 39669295 40149300 40589170 40869133



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