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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0941

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, June 29, 2018 17:24:15
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 291724
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 291723
    WYZ000-MTZ000-291900-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0941
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1223 PM CDT Fri Jun 29 2018

    Areas affected...North Central Wyoming and far Southern Montana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 291723Z - 291900Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms are expected through
    early afternoon with large hail and damaging winds the primary
    threat.

    DISCUSSION...A few storms have formed between the Bighorn Mountains
    and the Absaroka range in northern Wyoming and southern Montana this
    morning. Effective shear around 50 knots via the RIW 12Z sounding
    has led to these storms exhibiting some weak rotation. Expect storm
    coverage to increase into early afternoon as the potent upper wave
    in Idaho moves eastward with a few strong to severe storms capable
    of large hail and damaging winds. However, instability (~1000 J/kg
    MUCAPE per RAP mesoanalysis) this morning will limit a more
    widespread severe threat. Therefore, a severe thunderstorm watch is
    unlikely for this area.

    Areas in eastern Wyoming will likely need a watch later today as
    instability increases before storms develop later this afternoon.

    ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/29/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...

    LAT...LON 44020973 44680942 45220916 45620881 45700846 45630748
    45310710 44830678 44010686 43230718 42760792 42690874
    43320942 44020973



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