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ACUS11 KWNS 222306
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222305
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-230100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0829
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0605 PM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

Areas affected...Central/eastern Mississippi...northeastern
Louisiana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 197...

Valid 222305Z - 230100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 197
continues.

SUMMARY...Storms ongoing in central/eastern Mississippi will remain
capable of damaging wind gusts through about 02Z. An additional WW
is not expected due to the limited coverage of the severe threat.

DISCUSSION...Storms east of Jackson have weakened over the last
hour. Storms near the Mississippi River remain atop the outflow of
the eastern storms. Storms will generally move in to areas of
decreasing buoyancy, particularly as the boundary layer beings to
cool. However, effective deep-layer shear of 30-35 kts will continue
to support enough storm organization that an isolated damaging wind
gust will remain possible for the next few hours. Given the
anticipated decrease in instability and isolated nature of the
severe threat, an additional watch is not likely.

In western portions of WW 197, storm coverage has remained low. A
few storms now near Morehouse County, LA have fired along the
trailing portion of the outflow boundary and persisted. Storms
forming in this area have access to more unstable air with MLCAPE
values of 2000-2500 J/kg, though shear is weaker at 20-30 kts. These
storms are also capable of a severe wind gust and perhaps isolated
hail.

..Wendt.. 06/22/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...SHV...

LAT...LON 32869233 32919127 32678981 32438838 31838825 31318901
31539035 31879173 32379239 32679246 32869233



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