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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0825

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, June 22, 2018 19:52:50
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    ACUS11 KWNS 221952
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 221952
    TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-222115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0825
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0252 PM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of the southern High Plains

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

    Valid 221952Z - 222115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...At least widely scattered thunderstorms will develop
    through early evening, and a threat for damaging winds and large
    hail will likely evolve. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be
    needed before 21Z.

    DISCUSSION...High-based convection has developed along/south of the
    Raton Mesa this afternoon, and as cells move east into increasing
    moisture and moderate/strong buoyancy, they should strengthen
    considerably. A special 19Z AMA sounding shows ample veering of
    winds through 400mb, resulting in effective shear on the order of
    40-50 kt, which will favor rotating updrafts accompanied by a threat
    of very large hail and damaging winds. A threat of a tornado or two
    cannot be ruled out, but strong/cold outflow should force an
    evolution towards HP clusters that may grow upscale into a larger
    convective system. Aided by considerable storm-relative inflow and a moist/unstable environment to the southeast, this complex should
    bring a damaging wind threat across the Panhandles this evening.

    ..Picca/Thompson.. 06/22/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 37060082 36880024 36660009 35720005 35030013 34810035
    34820090 34870111 35180188 35620301 36620435 36980437
    37140391 37080098 37060082



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