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ACUS11 KWNS 221342
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221342
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-221515-

Mesoscale Discussion 0819
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0842 AM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

Areas affected...Portions of the lower Mississippi Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 221342Z - 221515Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few storms may be capable of damaging gusts and isolated
large hail this morning. However, the threat is expected to remain
sufficiently confined to preclude watch issuance through mid
morning.

DISCUSSION...On the nose of a 500mb jet max, scattered strong to
briefly severe storms have developed across parts of the lower
Mississippi Valley this morning. 12Z JAN/SHV soundings sampled a
layer of steep lapse rates aloft, which are enhancing updraft
accelerations with these cells. General westerly unidirectional flow
will likely foster continued upshear development along the western
flank (generally southern AR and northern LA) through mid morning.
Training of cells, combined with somewhat disorganized wind profiles
noted in aforementioned soundings, should keep the threat
sufficiently limited to preclude watch issuance through mid morning.
However, with persistent heating to the south and west of ongoing
convection, an increasing wind threat may evolve by late morning,
which could necessitate a watch, and trends will be monitored for
such an evolution.

..Picca/Thompson.. 06/22/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 33529313 33699127 33389074 32759040 32079047 31649104
31719304 32069373 32909393 33409378 33529313



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