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ACUS11 KWNS 140007
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140006
ARZ000-140030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0246
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0706 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

Areas affected...for portions of west-central AR

Concerning...Tornado Watch 40...

Valid 140006Z - 140030Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 40 continues.

SUMMARY...A significant tornado threat may increase and areas
downstream from the Sevier County tornadic supercell ---including
Montgomery and Yell counties--- are under an increasing tornado
risk.

DISCUSSION...A supercell with a history of tornadic activity over
southwestern AR and northeast TX will continue to the northeast over
the next 1-2 hours ahead of a north-northeast to south-southwest
oriented band of thunderstorms. The mesoscale environment
immediately on the inflow side of the supercell is characterized as
very moist with surface dewpoints around 70 degrees F. Based on the
wind profile from the Little Rock (LZK) VAD, around 450 m2/s2 0-1 km
SRH is present---supportive of low-level mesocyclonegenesis and a
tornado risk. Similar thermodynamic profiles were sampled by the
00Z SHV and LZK raobs (very moist through the troposphere with
moderate buoyancy, 1600-1900 J/kg MLCAPE). Given the strong
low-level shear and ample buoyancy, the tornado risk may continue to
increase over the next 30 minutes to 1-2 hours before the supercell
becomes embedded within the eastward-moving convective band from the
west.

..Smith.. 04/14/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 34049426 35099362 35119316 34949314 33929407 34049426



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ACUS11 KWNS 291340
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291339
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-291515-

Mesoscale Discussion 0246
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0839 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2019

Areas affected...Central/northeastern Oklahoma...southeastern Kansas...southwestern Missouri...and far northwest Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 291339Z - 291515Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Occasional instances of 1+ inch hailstones are possible
with stronger thunderstorms over the next couple of hours. A WW
issuance is not anticipated at this time.

DISCUSSION...Elevated convection persists along an axis from near
CQB to near TUL and BVO - and is more widespread than operational
models depict. Though forcing for ascent aloft is negligible,
mid-level instability (8.5-9 deg C/km) noted on 12Z soundings and
subtle speed convergence at the base of this unstable layer (800-850
mb) is likely forcing ongoing convection along the eastern edge of
the strongest lapse rates. Though effective shear is marginal, the
magnitude of lapse rates will continue to support a hail risk with
the strongest storms, with 1" or greater hail stones possible for
the next couple of hours.

Over time, flow at 800-850mb is expected to weaken and back to a
more south-southwesterly direction in response to cyclogenesis over
central Kansas. This will likely lead to a weakening of ongoing
convection as convergence near the base of the lapse rate plume
weakens. Thus, the isolated nature of the severe threat with
ongoing convection and expected weakening of this activity precludes
any need for a WW issuance.

..Cook.. 03/29/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 37829623 38029570 38179474 38069404 37609369 36629375
35849424 35359490 35119592 35029678 35069726 35279751
35729736 36319710 36859705 37249691 37449670 37829623



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