10/16/2020

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Sunspots returned on October 9 - 12, with sunspot numbers of 24, 26, 15 and 15. No sunspot appeared on October 13, but late on Wednesday, October 14, Spaceweather.com[1] reported a new emerging Solar Cycle 25 spot on our sun's southeastern limb, and a daily sunspot number of 12. The next day, NOAA reported sunspot numbers of 12 and 14 on October 14 - 15. Prior to October 9 no sunspots appeared for 2 weeks, and at that time we saw a sunspot number of 13 on September 23 and 11 on September 25.

Average daily sunspot number increased from 0 to 13.1, while average daily solar flux went from 71.8 to 73.1.

Geomagnetic indicators were lower, with planetary A index dropping from 7.1 to 2.7 and middle latitude A index from 6 to 1.9.

Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 74 on October 16 - 17; 72 on October 18 - 31; 70 on November 1 - 7; 73 on November 8 - 10; 72, 71, and 71 on November 11 - 13; 70 on November 14 - 23; 72 on November 24 - 27, and 73 on November 28 - 29.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on October 16 - 19; 10 on October 20; 8 on October 21 - 23; 16, 38, and 38 on October 24 - 26; 26, 15, and 10 on October 27 - 29; 5 on October 30 - November 6; 10 on November 7; 5 on November 8 - 15; 10, 15, and 18 on November 16 - 18; 20 on November 19 - 20; 24, 14, and 10 on November 21 - 23; 8 on November 24 - 25, and 5 on November 26 - 29.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH, filed this report.

The geomagnetic field will be:


o quiet on: October 16, November 5 - 7, 10 - 13�
o quiet to unsettled on: October 17, 31, November 3, 14 - 16�
o quiet to active on: October (18,) 19 - 20, 28 - 29, (30,) November (1, 4)�
o unsettled to active: October 22, (24,) 27, November 2, 8 ( - 9)�
o active to disturbed: October (21, 23,) 25 - 26�
o Solar wind will intensify on October (20 - 21,) 22, (23 - 25,) 26 - 29, (30,) 31, November (2 - 3,) 4 - 5, (9 - 11).

Note: Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."

Do you think the recent (or current) solar minimum is lasting a little too long? Check this contrarian view[2]. Note the link Victor20-Sep23-SSN_Forecasts.tab toward the bottom of the page. It shows sunspot records and predictions from 1730 until 2101! I can't explain the numbers or how they were derived.

Perhaps someone can help this programmer on Stack Overflow[3] with his Python program for performing linear regression with a sunspot database.

On Thursday, October 15, on the local Puget Sound Repeater Group 146.96 MHz machine, I heard a couple of stations talking about gray-line, long-path propagation on 40 meters. After I inquired, Dean Holtan, N7XS of Camano Island, Washington wrote:

"On Wednesday, October 14, at 1530 UTC, I heard K6MYC and company working ZS6 stations. I also heard a station in the Netherlands, PA1A I believe. He was very loud along with the ZS6 stations, S-9 plus via long path.

"I was listening on my SDRplay RSPduo and a 160-meter loop at 100 feet. If I had gone to the shack I could have worked them. Thursday October 15, 20 meters was nicely open into Europe. KW7Y was working many G stations and EA short path at 1630 UTC. The above was all on phone.

"Last week on October 10 starting at 0130 UTC when I was on vacation, on 20 meters at our sunset I worked UN7JX and VU2MB along with many others in Asiatic Russia. I was called by a station in Lebanon but that was unsuccessful - all on FT8 running 500 W and my 160-meter loop at 100 feet from Camano Island, Washington."

Doug Behl, VE3XDB, linking via internet from Kitchener, Ontario, later wrote:

"Many amateurs today complain about propagation. Conditions haven't been great for several years, although there is some glimmer of hope that things may be getting better. Those experiencing the most frustration seem to be sideband operators. I have had some success over the past few years, using a couple of principles.

1. Use a mode that does better in poor conditions. These days, everyone jumps to FT8, a fantastic, low-power mode that does very well in poor conditions. However, I prefer a mode that creates a more traditional experience. CW and PSK31 are both very good modes for effective contacts when conditions are poor and may provide an opportunity to get to know the other operator a bit better.

2. Work the gray line. Gray-line propagation occurs at daybreak or at dusk. It is very interesting, because it occurs at a very particular time of day, opens up very quickly, and then, when time is up, it just disappears! Here is a short, interesting article[4] on the science and experience of gray line propagation.

Following the above two principles, I have worked western and eastern Europe, the Caribbean and South America, as well as Oceania and Southeast Asia over the past few months, My modest station is a short, inverted L and an old Kenwood transceiver, usually running about 20 W and never more than 40 W. Best results have been achieved on 20, 30, and 40 meters.

To work the world when conditions are poor, I encourage others to try CW and PSK31, especially at dawn or at dusk. You may be surprised by the results achieved using a modest station. We need more operators in both of these modes!"

Ken Brown, N4SO wrote:

"Evidence pointed to a very good propagation path to Asiatic Russia, Japan, and to China on Saturday evening. From October 10, 2330 UTC, 21.074 MHZ, FT8: I first noticed UA0CA calling CQ from Asiatic Russia. It's rare to see a UA0 on the screen, and so far I have never completed a contact. I have also never had completed a contact with China until Saturday evening.

"Calling UA0CA was noticed by BV1EK, China, and he called me and we were able to complete a contact. In this same period, I completed contacts with JA1FGX, JQ1CIV, and JG1SRB.

"A contact with UA0CA or with UA0ZK was not made, but I can appreciate the distance is roughly 5,000 miles away. I will try again on Sunday. Distance to UA0ZK, for example, is 5,391 miles."

Sunspot numbers for October 8 - 14 were 0, 24, 26, 15, 15, 0, and 12, with a mean of 13.1. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 71.6, 73.1, 73.6, 72.9, 73.8, 72.3, and 74.5, with a mean of 73.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 2, 2, 3, 4, 3, and 2, with a mean of 2.7. Middle latitude A index was 2, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, and 0, with a mean of 1.9.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[5] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[6] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[7] K9LA's Propagation Page.

A propagation bulletin archive[8] is available. Monthly charts are no longer be updated on this page. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[9] website.

Instructions[10] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.�

Share[11] your reports and observations.�


[1] http://www.spaceweather.com/
[2] https://bit.ly/3nWoGK0
[3] https://bit.ly/3lVNgIX
[4] https://www.qsl.net/w2vtm/grayline.html
[5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[7] http://k9la.us/
[8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[9] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[11] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

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� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

10/23/2020

The K7RA Solar Update

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports:

Sunspots appeared every day of the past reporting week. Compared to the previous 7 days, the average daily sunspot number increased from 13.1 to 15. Average daily solar flux rose from 73.1 to 74.5. Geomagnetic indicators were up slightly, with average daily planetary A index rising from 2.7 to 5, and middle latitude A index going from 1.9 to 4.1.

Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 75 on October 23 - 27; 72 on October 28; 70 on November 1 - 7; 73 on November 8 - 10; 72 on November 11; 71 on November 12 - 13; 70 on November 14 - 23; 72 on November 24 - 27, and 73 on November 28 - December 6.

Predicted planetary A index is 18 and 20 on October 23; 15 on October 24 - 26; 12 on October 27; 10 on October 28; 8 on October 29; 5 on October 30 - November 6, 10 on November 7; 5 on November 8 - 15; 10, 15, and 18 on November 16 - 18; 20 on November 19 - 20; 24, 14, and 10 on November 21 - 23; 8 on November 24 - 25, and 5 on November 26 - December 6.

Here is the geomagnetic activity forecast from F.K. Janda, OK1HH, for October 23 - November 18.

The geomagnetic field will be:


o quiet on November 5-7, 10-13


o quiet to unsettled on October 31, November 3, 14-15


o quiet to active on October 28-29, (30,) November (1, 4,) 16


o unsettled to active on October (24,) 27, November 2, (8-9,) 17-18


o active to disturbed on October (23, 25-26)


o Solar wind will intensify on October (23-25,) 26-29, (30,) 31; November (2-3,) 4-5, (12-14,) 15-18

Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

We received this report from Jeff, N8II, in West Virginia:

"It took a while - the first 10 days of October were pretty dismal - but recently there has been an opening to Europe daily here on 15 meters, so perhaps conditions on 15 are better than this time last year. Conversely, very little has been heard on 12 or 10, CW or phone. Last year featured some loud signals on 10 meters from South America in the late afternoon.

"It was October 10 when I started putting 15-meter European contacts in my log. MI0SAI in Northern Ireland was S-9 at 1525 on SSB, and SJ6A in Sweden was about S-5 - 7 at 1542 UTC. Sunday, October 11 I worked Germany, England, Italy, The Netherlands, and Croatia, all with S-7 or stronger signals on SSB, between 1417 and 1527 UTC.

"One thing seems apparent: The MUF is so close to 21 MHz that each opening is somewhat different in coverage and peak propagation time. Some other highlights: EU1KY in Belarus on SSB at 1306; OZ8KW in Denmark at 1411; SP9LCW in Poland at 1414; at 1416, SM5YOC and at 1528, SM3LBP in Sweden, and OD5OZ in Lebanon at 1608 (quite late for him) on October 12. The next day, I worked LY2TS in Lithuania on CW at 1516, and I had a CW pile-up of mostly western European stations until 1552, with best DX being southern Russia, R6MI at 1544 and UR7QC at 1547. Signals seem to completely or nearly fade by 1630, and decrease right after 1600. On the October 16, 9K2HS in Kuwait was my first QSO on CW at 1532, and he was S-5 - 6, but heard me on first call. On October 18, I logged 7Z1IS Saudi Arabia at S-7 at 1407. The next day, there was a very strong opening to the UK from 1515 to 1548. On the October 20, OH5LF in Finland was S-9+ when we signed on SSB at 1407; his antenna was 5/5-element Yagis, and he was running 1.5 kW remote from his summer cottage.

"Strong European SSB signals showed up on October 20, 1330 - 1510 after starting with 9K2HS at S-5 on SSB. I worked three stations in a row in Lebanon on SSB at 1500 UTC. Conditions dropped rapidly after 1510, very early for the band to close. Other stations worked during the European opening were ZS6TVB in South Africa and ZD7FT on St. Helena Island, both with strong signals."

Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW, in Easton, Pennsylvania (FN20jq) sent this:

"Yikes! October out-of-season single-hop sporadic-E (Es) was active on 6 meters along the east coast, Saturday, October 17, 2100 to 2300 UTC. This is 25 days past the autumnal equinox.

"Once again, the unexpected happens during the early recovery out of a solar minimum.

"I was monitoring FT8 on 50.313 MHz waiting for Es to show-up along the Gulf of Mexico. Then it happened. The first direct decodes:

215700 -3 -0.4 1527 ~ WA2FZW W4KBX EL98

220345 -2 -0.4 2178 ~ KK2DOG W4KBX EL98

220545 -1 -0.4 2177 ~ KC3PIB W4KBX EL98

220845 -9 -0.5 1566 ~ CQ K2IL EL97

"Grid Squares: EL98 in central Florida, around Orlando, and EL97 in south central Florida, north of Lake Okeechobee.

"Now that the band is open with Es expanding farther south, I decided to try for contacts on the SSB calling frequency on 50.125 MHz.

"When I rolled down there, several operators were already having conversations about how pleasant it was that the band came back to life since the summer months.�

"At 2252 UTC, I put out my first CQ. AG4N, Bill, replied from West Point, Georgia, which is some 300 yards from the Alabama state line. From my location to AG4GN, 230� azimuth, distance 771 air miles.�

"I gave Bill a 4/7 signal report with QSB.�

"The Es was being funneled as far away as Mobile, Alabama (996 miles), and Biloxi, Mississippi (1,045 miles).

"By 2335 UTC the band started to collapse, with signal reports sliding down to 2/2.

"No double-hop Es from Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, or other northern Caribbean Sea islands was heard.

"Even if the band sounds dead, I urge everyone to continue monitoring the 6-meter SSB calling frequency, 50.125 MHz, then take it one step farther and call CQ. You might be pleasantly rewarded, even if you are running 10 W into a 6-meter horizontal half-wave dipole less than 8 feet off the ground."

Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, has posted a video[1].

Sunspot numbers for October 15 - 21 were 14, 14, 15, 28, 12, 11, and 11, with a mean of 15. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 73.8, 75.3, 73.1, 75.9, 74.8, 74.7, and 73.7, with a mean of 74.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 4, 5, 3, 6, 4, and 10, with a mean of 5. Middle latitude A index was 2, 4, 5, 3, 5, 3, and 7, with a mean of 4.1.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[2] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[3] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[4] K9LA's Propagation Page.

A propagation bulletin archive[5] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[6] website.

Instructions[7] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[8] your reports and observations.


[1] https://bit.ly/34mi67T
[2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[4] http://k9la.us/
[5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[6] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[7] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[8] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

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� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

11/06/2020

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: The 10.7-centimeter solar flux density was 88.1 on Wednesday, November 4, the highest since October 14, 2016, when it was 92.8. The average daily solar flux for that week as reported[1] in this bulletin was 76.9, and average daily sunspot number was 18.7, so activity 4 years ago was similar to recent activity; in fact those numbers closely match the flux and SSN in last week's bulletin. But in 2016, Solar Cycle 24 was declining, reaching a minimum about 3 years later in December 2019.

The daily solar flux is measured at noon local time (GMT -8 hours) in Penticton, British Columbia, but actually three daily measurements are taken, at 1800 UTC, 2000 UTC, and 2200 UTC.

Solar flux has been steadily increasing since the 2000 UTC reading on November 2. The three daily readings through November 5 were 81.6, 81.9, 82.9, 82.9, 83.7, 86.9, 88.1, 89, 91.1, 90.7, and 92. But the daily 2000 UTC reading is always reported as the official number for the day. (Spaceweather.com lists[2] the daily flux values.)

Average daily sunspot number during the October 29 - November 4 reporting week was 21.3, compared to 17 over the previous 7 days. Average daily solar flux was 81.6, compared to 76.9 reported last week.

Average daily planetary A index this week was 6.3, down from 12.3 last week. Average daily mid-latitude A index was 4.9, down from 9.9 last week.

Spaceweather.com[3] reported at 0703 UTC on November 3 that the new sunspot group produced a minor solar flare, and a pulse of UV radiation "briefly ionized Earth's upper atmosphere, causing a low-frequency radio blackout over the Indian Ocean."

Another flare occurred at 0022 UTC on November 5, which caused a brief blackout over Australia and the Pacific Ocean, causing signals below 10 MHz to fade."

Check the STEREO satellite images: 360� view[4] | Conventional format[5]. A large, new sunspot group, AR2781, is the largest so far in new Solar Cycle 25, according to Spaceweather.com. It should be geo-effective (facing Earth) over the next 10 days.

Predicted solar flux is 88 on November 5 - 10; 83 on November 11; dropping to 75, 74, and 75 on November 12 - 14; 76 on November 15 - 21; 75 on November 22 - 27; 74 on November 28 - 29; 72 on November 30 - December 5; 74 on December 6 - 10; 75 on December 11; 76 on December 12 - 18, and 75 on December 19.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 8, and 8 on November 5 - 7; 5 on November 8 - 16; 10, 5, 10; and 15 on November 17 - 20; 12 on November 21 - 22; 8, 10, and 12 on November 23 - 25; 5 on November 26 - 27; 10 on November 28; 5 on November 29 - December 13; then 8, 5, and 8 on December 14 - 16; 12 on December 17, and 10 on December 18 - 19. Flux and geomagnetic predictions are updated daily[6].

Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for November 6 - December 2 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

The geomagnetic field will be:


o quiet on November 6-7, 9-11, December� 1-2


o quiet to unsettled on November 8, 12-15, 19, 26-27, 30


o quiet to active on November 16-18, 22-25, (29)


o unsettled to active November 21, (28)


o active to disturbed November 20


o Solar wind will intensify on November (18-20,) 21-25 (30, December 2)



Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

This weekend is the CW portion of ARRL November Sweepstakes[7], which runs from 2100 UTC Saturday until 0259 UTC on Monday.

Here's a cool photo[8] of the WWV antennas in Colorado, and from an unusual perspective.

Sunspot numbers for October 29 - November 4, 2020 were 35, 32, 26, 12, 11, 15, and 18, with a mean of 21.3. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 84.6, 79.6, 76.8, 77.3, 81.6, 82.9, and 88.1, with a mean of 81.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 14, 5, 6, 10, 3, 3, and 3, with a mean of 6.3. Middle latitude A index was 11, 4, 6, 8, 2, 2, and 1, with a mean of 4.9.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[9] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[10] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[11] K9LA's Propagation Page.

A propagation bulletin archive[12] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[13] website.

Instructions[14] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[15] your reports and observations.�


[1] https://bit.ly/3oYTDxO
[2] https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php
[3] http://www.spaceweather.com/
[4] https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/beacon/
[5] https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
[6] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/
[7] http://www.arrl.org/sweepstakes
[8] https://bit.ly/35UUA1l
[9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[11] http://k9la.us/
[12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[13] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[14] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[15] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

11/13/2020

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: The last time we experienced a day with no sunspots was October 13. Prior to that, September 26 - October 8, September 24, and August 21 - September 22 had no sunspots. Cycle 25 is clearly under way and going strong.

Average daily sunspot number over the November 5 - 11 reporting week was 31.3, up from 21.3 over the previous 7 days. Average daily solar flux increased from 81.6 to 90. The higher HF bands are opening up.

Geomagnetic indicators were very quiet, with average daily planetary A index dropping from 6.3 to 4.4, and middle latitude A index (based on readings from a single magnetometer on Wallops Island, Virginia) from 4.9 to 2.7.

Predicted solar flux for the following 7 days was revised downward on Thursday, November 12: Predicted flux is 85 on November 13 - 15; 82 on November 16; 80 on November 17 - 19; 78 on November 20 - 25; 80 and 82 on November 26 - 27; 86 on November 28 - December 5; 90, 88, 86, and 84 on December 6 - 9; 82 on December 10 - 11; 80 on December 12; 78 on December 13 - 22; 80 and 82 on December 23 - 24, and 86 on December 25 - 27.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on November 13 - 15; 5 on November 16 - 19; 15, 12, and 15 on November 20 - 22; 8, 10, and 12 on November 23 - 25; 5 on November 26 - December 2; 8 on December 3 - 4; 5 on December 5 - 8; 8 and 10 on December 9 - 10; 5 on December 11 - 13; 10, 5, and 10 on December 14 - 16; 15, 12, and 15 on December 17 - 19; 8, 10, and 12 on December 20 - 22, and 5, 5, 8, 5, and 5 on December 23 - 27.

EarthSky recently published the article[1], "The Sun is Becoming Active Again."

Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for November 13 - December 9 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH. Geomagnetic field will be:


o quiet on November 13 - 14, December 1, 6 - 8


o quiet to unsettled on November 15 - 19, 23 - 30, December 2, 4


o quiet to active on December 3, 5, 9


o unsettled to active November (20 - 22)


o active to disturbed none


o Solar wind will intensify on: November (18 - 20,) 21 - 25, (30,) December (2,) 3 - 5, (9)



Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

We heard from Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW, of Easton, Pennsylvania:

Friday, November 6, was a good day for 10 meters between 2000 and 2100 UTC. A wide regional swath between the north Pacific Ocean, North America, and Western Europe were all hearing these call sign prefixes: CE/XR: Chile; CX: Uruguay; LU/LW: Argentina, and PY: Brazil. Modes heard were CW, FT8, and SSB.

Signal strength went from background noise level of 2 up to 9+ dB.

F2 distances ranged approximately from 3,000 to 6,000 miles (4,828 to 9,656 kilometers).

DXmaps on 28 MHz indicated the MUF reached 66 MHz above grid square FN11 (Williamsport, Pennsylvania) at 2009 UTC, then ramped up to 72 MHz above FN00 (Altoona, Pennsylvania) at 2046 UTC. Prior to local sunset at 2152 UTC, the F2 slowly faded out into the South Pacific off the mid-western coast of South America.

On November 11, around 2130 - 2320 UTC both sporadic-E (Es) and F2 started on the 11-meter band. Background noise level ranged between 3 and 4 dB. Puerto Rico stations via Es were strong, up to 20+ dB with light fading.

These southern states were heard with signal strengths ranging from 8 to 18 dB: AL, AR, FL, GA, KY, LA, MS, TN.

At 2248 UTC on 10 meters, there was light FT8 activity into Alabama and Tennessee until 2320 UTC when the DX finally went below the 4 dB noise level.

Here are some useful images[2] from the Solar Dynamics Observatory:

Atlas Obscura[3] on Hisako Koyama.

Sunspot numbers for November 5 - 11 were 28, 35, 37, 40, 27, 27, and 25, with a mean of 31.3. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 90.7, 93.8, 90.6, 90, 90, 86.8, and 88.1, with a mean of 90. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 8, 7, 5, 1, 2, and 4, with a mean of 4.4. Middle latitude A index was 3, 7, 4, 3, 0, 0, and 2, with a mean of 2.7.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[4] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[5] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[6] K9LA's Propagation Page.

A propagation bulletin archive[7] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[8] website.

Instructions[9] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[10] your reports and observations.


[1] https://bit.ly/38CfS6W
[2] https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/
[3] https://bit.ly/2Uu1Cod
[4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[6] http://k9la.us/
[7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[8] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[9] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[10] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

11/20/2020

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: As solar flux declined over the past week, I noticed less long-distance propagation on 10 meters reported on pskreporter.info[1] from my local grid square, CN87. Propagation on 12 meters was quite strong, however. After 0100 UTC on November 15, transequatorial propagation was evident between East Asia and Australia on 10 meters.�

Solar activity declined dramatically over the past week, with average daily sunspot numbers going from 31.3 to 12. On November 15 and 16, there were no sunspots at all, which greatly affected the decline in this week's average. Solar flux weakened from a weekly average last week of 90, to 79.8 this week.�

Predicted solar flux over the next 45 days is also relatively weak, at 75 on November 20 - 21; 73 on November 22; 70 on November 23 - 26; 72 on November 27; 75 on November 28 - December 8; 72 on December 9 - 10; 70 on December 11 - 12; 75, 72, and 72 on December 13 - 15; 70 on December 16 - 22; 72 on December 23 - 24, and 75 on December 25 - January 3, 2021.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 12, and 8 on November 20 - 22; 5 on November 23 - December 2; 8 on December 3 - 4; 5 on December 5 - 17; 8, 12, 8, 10, and 12 on December 18 - 22; 5 on December 23 - 29; 8 on December 30 - 31, and 5 on January 1 - 3, 2021.

Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for November 20 - December 16, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH. The geomagnetic field will be:�


o quiet on December 1, 6 - 8, 12 - 14, (15 - 16)�
o quiet to unsettled on November 28 - 30, December 2, 4, 10 - 11�
o quiet to active on November 26 - 27, December 3, 5, 9�
o unsettled to active November (20,) 21 - 22, (23 - 25)�
o active to disturbed �- �None predicted�
o Solar wind will intensify on November (20,) 21 - 25, (30,) December (2,) 3 - 5, (9).

Notes:


o Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.�
o Predictability of changes remains lower, because there are few unambiguous indications.

This bulletin has mentioned the paper by McIntosh, et al, "Overlapping Magnetic Activity Cycles and the Sunspot Number: Predicting Sunspot Cycle 25 Amplitude[2]," referenced in The ARRL Letter for November 19.

My favorite passage: "Our method predicts that SC25 could be among the strongest sunspot cycles ever observed, and that it will almost certainly be stronger than present SC24 (sunspot number of 116) and most likely stronger than the previous SC23 (sunspot number of 180). This is in stark contrast to the consensus of the SC25 [prediction panel] sunspot number maximum between 95 and 130, i.e., similar to that of SC24." The Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel met in September.

The new prediction is very exciting, and suggests a cycle that may rival Cycle 19, which peaked in March, 1958. The effects on HF radio propagation at that time were remarkable and included daily worldwide propagation on 10 and even 6 meters, and not just during daylight hours.

I was about to turn 6 years old at the time, and we lived in Reedley, a small fruit-packing town in California's San Joaquin Valley, where my father worked supplying agricultural chemicals to farmers. He drove a company car that contained a low-band VHF FM radio (probably 30 - 40 MHz, judging from my memory of the bumper mounted antenna), and I recall his describing being unable to contact the base station in Fresno, about 25 miles away, while getting interference from other users of the channel in Texas.

I've heard from many hams who were new Novice licensees at the time and assumed conditions would always be as they were then. They have been waiting a long time. I would love to see daily sunspot numbers greater than 200. Here's an article[3] about sunspot activity in 1958.

NN4X reported from Florida on 12-meter FT8 activity on November 14.

"12 meters was in great shape!




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Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW (FN20jq), wrote:

"Yikes, October out-of-season single-hop sporadic-E is active on the 6 meter band along the east coast! On Saturday, October 17, 2100 - 2300 UTC, it is 25 days past the autumnal equinox. Once again, the unexpected happens during the early recovery out of a solar minimum. I was monitoring FT8 on 50.313 MHz for Es to show up along the Gulf of Mexico coastal region. Then it happened - the first direct decodes in monitoring mode: W4KBX in EL98 (central Florida) and K2IL in EL97 (south-central Florida, north of Lake Okeechobee.

"Now that the band is open with Es expanding farther south, I decided to try for any contacts down on the SSB calling frequency, 50.125 MHz. When I rolled down there, several operators were already having conversations about how pleasant [it was] that the band came back to life since the summer months.

"At 2252 UTC, I put out the first CQ, and AG4N, Bill from West Point, Georgia, very close to the Alabama state line replied. From my QTH to AG4N, azimuth 230�, distance 771 miles. I gave Bill a 4 x 7 signal report with QSB.�

"The Es was being funneled as far away as Mobile, Alabama (996 miles), and Biloxi, Mississippi (1,045 miles).

"By 2335 UTC, the band started to collapse with signal reports sliding down to 2 x 2. No double-hop Es from Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, or other northern Caribbean Sea islands was heard.

"Even if the band conditions sound dead, I urge everyone to continue monitoring the 6-meter SSB calling frequency, 50.125 MHz, then take it one step farther and call CQ. You might be pleasantly rewarded, even if you are running 10 W into a 6-meter horizontal half-wave dipole less than 8 feet off the ground."

Here[4] is the November 14 forecast from the Space Weather Woman, WX6SWW.

Sunspot numbers for November 12 - 18 were 27, 24, 11, 0, 0, 11, and 11, with a mean of 12. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 85.1, 81.9, 80.2, 78.7, 76.6, 79.1, and 77.3, with a mean of 79.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 3, 3, 4, 2, 3, and 4, with a mean of 3.1. Middle latitude A index was 3, 2, 2, 2, 0, 3, and 3, with a mean of 2.1.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[5] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[6] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[7] K9LA's Propagation Page.

A propagation bulletin archive[8] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[9] website.

Instructions[10] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.�

Share[11] your reports and observations.�


[1] http://pskreporter.info/
[2] https://bit.ly/36Pb0J7
[3] https://bit.ly/3pOtbHE
[4] https://youtu.be/HCBth8nS79w
[5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[7] http://k9la.us/
[8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[9] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[11] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

11/27/2020

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Over the past week our sun has been quite active, with rising sunspot numbers and solar flux showing strong evidence that Solar Cycle 25 is progressing.

Average daily sunspot number rose from 12 last week to 27.9 in the current week, while solar flux rose to a high of 103.7, bringing average daily solar flux up from 79.8 to 90.1.

Average daily planetary A index rose from 3.1 to 9.9, and average daily middle latitude A index went from 2.1 to 7.7.

Predicted solar flux is 106, 108, and 105 on November 27 - 29, 102 on November 30 - December 4; 92, 88, and 85 on December 5 - 7; 82, 80, and 78 on December 8 - 10; 75 on December 11 - 17; 77, 80, 90, and 92 on December 18 - 21; 94 on December 22 - 25; 92 on December 26 - January 1, 88, 85, 82, 80, and 78 on January 2 - 6, and 75 on January 7 - 10.

The Planetary A Index forecast shows values of 8 on November 27; 5 on November 28 - December 17; 12, 24, and 18 on December 18 - 20; 10, 12, and 10 on December 21 - 23; 5 on December 24 - 29; 8 on December 30 - 31, and 5 on January 1 - 10.

Solar flux is measured three times a day[1] in Penticton, British Columbia, Canada, and values have risen steadily in the past few days. Starting at 2200 UTC on November 24, they were 99.6, 102.8, 103.7, 104, 105.7, 105.8 and 110.2. The official daily flux value is taken at 2000 UTC (noon local time in Penticton). See the article[2], "The Solar Flux Radio Telescope at Penticton BC" by John White ,VA7JW.

Here' the geomagnetic activity forecast for November 27 - December 22 from J. K. Janda, OK1HH. The geomagnetic field will be:


o quiet on December 7, 12-14, (15-16)


o quiet to unsettled on November 29-30, December 1-2, 6, 8, 11


o quiet to active on November 27-28, December 3-5, 9-10, 17, 22


o unsettled to active December 18, 21


o active to disturbed December 19-20


o solar wind will intensify on November (30,) December (2,) 3-5, (9,) 17-19



Note: Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement. The predictability of change remains lower because of some ambiguous indications, and the situation is rapidly changing - an indicator of further growth in activity.

Jon Jones, N0JK, reported on November 25, that sporadic E was picking up on 6 meters as Thanksgiving approached:

K0GU (DN70) into northeast Kansas via Es on 50.313 MHz ~ 2344 UTC has -12 dB signals on FT8 on November 24.

K0GU made a number of contacts into the St. Louis and W9 areas. Also saw AC4TO (EM70) in Florida working Brazil ~ 0050 UTC on November 25. May have been a sporadic E link to TEP or possibly direct TEP. And this spot:

PY1MHZ ������ 20/11/25��������� 0057Z� 50313.0 Into EM70��� AC4TO

KA3JAW reported November 25, sporadic e, both double- and triple-hop rolled-up on 10 meters for 6 hours starting around 1253 UTC and continuing until 1921 UTC. Background noise level was 4 dBm on the meter. The following countries, states were heard: Trinidad, West Indies, Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas, and Washington, as well as Canada. Texas was the most-heard state. What was different with this event was the lack of southeastern states.

Bill Herzberg, AA8WH, of Dearborn Heights, Michigan, reported that 10 meters is alive and well.

"Starting after noon on November 25, I decided to check out the 6 and 10-meter FT8 frequencies. Wasn't much happening on 6, only heard a few calls, so I moved down to 10. Boy, what a difference; 10-meter FT8 signals were coming in from all over the place.

"I decided to go down to the sideband portion and see what was going on. Heard lots of SSB stations around 28.4. Heard some more above that.

"Went down to 28.3, and heard several really strong stations.

"Went down to the beacon subband, heard [a lot of] beacon stations, some doubling up on frequencies.

"So I went down to 12 meters. Heard several SSB stations, FT8 was hopping; 15 was wide open, as was 17, and 20 was also going strong.

"I think it was a combination of better conditions and a lot of folks [being] home for the holidays.

"Nice to hear the bands open. It's a taste of what's coming, when it will be possible to work the world with a few watts. Those times are coming, and it won't be soon enough for me.

"

Thanks to Paul, NO0T, for this recording[3] of Scott McIntosh's presentation to the Front Range 6 Meter Group concerning Solar Cycle 25. Some of what he reports is quite startling and optimistic.

Barring some disturbance, operators in this weekend's CQ World Wide CW DX[4] Contest could experience the best conditions in years. Coming up in 2 weeks is the ARRL 10 Meter Contest[5], which will especially benefit from higher solar activity.

See this article[6] on helioseismology and sunspot prediction.

Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, is very excited[7] about the new solar activity.

Sunspot numbers for November 19 - 25 were 11, 11, 23, 35, 38, 37, and 40, with a mean of 27.9. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 76.7, 81.7, 85, 87.7, 95.5, 100.4, and 103.7, with a mean of 90.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 8, 12, 27, 8, 4, and 7, with a mean of 9.9. Middle latitude A index was 2, 9, 9, 19, 7, 4, and 4, with a mean of 7.7.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[8] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[9] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[10] K9LA's Propagation Page.

A propagation bulletin archive[11] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[12] website.

Instructions[13] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[14] your reports and observations.


[1] https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php
[2] http://archive.nsarc.ca/hf/drao_solar.pdf
[3] https://youtu.be/lRNJPkQPo_g
[4] https://www.cqww.com/
[5] http://www.arrl.org/10-meter
[6] https://bit.ly/39gIAdD
[7] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L6L-FutZmw8
[8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[10] http://k9la.us/
[11] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[12] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[13] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[14] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

12/04/2020

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Sunspot Cycle 25 is 1 year old, and increasing solar activity continues to surprise and amaze.

Average daily sunspot numbers more than doubled every week over the past few weeks. Two weeks ago, we reported average daily sunspot numbers of 12. Last week, the average was 27.9. This week the average daily sunspot number at sits at 57.6.

In the past week the highest daily sunspot number was 84 on Sunday, November 29, and solar flux also peaked that day, at 116.3, pushing the week's average solar flux to 108.1, up from 90.1 over the previous 7 days, and from 79.8 the week prior to that.

Geomagnetic indicators were moderate, despite several solar flares, including a solar flare on November 29 that was the most powerful solar flare and coronal mass ejection (CME) in the new solar cycle - a sure sign of increasing activity. It was not Earth-directed, however. Here's a Michigan Live report[1], and a report[2] received from Frank Donovan, W3LPL.

Predicted solar flux over the next 45 days is 100, 95, 90, 85, and 80 on December 4 - 8; 75 on December 9 - 11; 85 on December 12; 82 on December 13 - 16; 85, 90, and 100 on December 17 - 19; 105 on December 20 - 21; 108 on December 22; 110 on December 23 - 25; 115 on December 26 - 27; 113 on December 28 - 30; 110 on December 31; 105 and 103 on January 1 - 2; 95 on January 3 - 4; 92 and 88 on January 5 - 6; 85 on January 7 - 8; 82 on January 9 - 12; 85, 90, and 100 on January 13 - 15, and 105 on January 16 - 17.

Planetary A index is predicted at 5 on December 4 - 17; 12, 20, and 8 on December 18 - 20; 5 on December 21 - 22; 8, 10, and 8 on December 23 - 25; 5 on December 26 - January 13, and 12, 20, 8, and 5 on January 14 - 17.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH, reports the geomagnetic activity forecast for December 4 - 29. The geomagnetic field will be:


o quiet on December 6 - 7, 12 - 13, (14 - 16)


o quiet to unsettled on December 8 - 11, 21, 28


o quiet to active on December 4 ( - 5), 17, 22 - 23, 26, 29


o unsettled to active December 18, 20, (24 - ) 25, (27)


o active to disturbed December 19


o Solar wind will intensify on December 4, (5 - 8, 11, 19,) 20 - 22, (23,) 27 (28 - 29)



Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

Jeff Hartley, N8II, reports from FM19cj in Shepherdstown, West Virginia:

"About 10 days does not make an average, but I can never remember such a sudden sustained increase in SFI as the new cycle begins. Perhaps October 1978 may have been similar, but I assume that flux was already fairly high in the preceding months, and the new cycle was only about a year from the peak.

"Conditions - or at least activity - seemed to be down a bit in the week preceding the CQ World Wide CW contest until Friday, which seemed better. Twenty meters was a bit disappointing at the Saturday November 0000 UTC start, with most DX coming from southern South America.

"D4Z on Cape Verde was loud and continued to be loud through most of the weekend on 20.

"I managed a marginal scatter with Italy beaming at 150� (over Brazil).

"Moving to 40 at 0023 UTC, signals were loud from Germany and Hungary farther south. At 0121, 7Q6M Malawi and CR3W Madeira Islands were logged easily on 40. On 80 at 0220, I could work EU excluding Russia north of the Black Sea area and the Baltic States, but signals were not that loud. 160 was very tough, with large pile-ups on North American DX and not much readable from Africa or Europe.

"I resumed on 20 at 1158 UTC about 10 minutes before sunrise, and the band was already full of loud Europeans even open already to Russia. Signal levels were very good with high activity. R8WF in Asia (but still in the EU Russian Zone 16) was my best DX to the east.

"By 1309, signals from EU were building nicely on 15 from nearly all corners. Some of my first contacts were OH3077F in Finland, RL6M southern Russia, LY4T Lithuania, and UT7NY Ukraine. By 1430, northern EU was mostly gone on 15, but I maintained a good EU QSO rate until about 1522. A brief visit to 10 then found Spain (very weak), Canary Islands, Puerto Rico, French Guiana, and Cayman Islands. Then it was back to 20 with good western EU conditions until about 1700, staying there working Europe until 1721. 5H3EE Tanzania went into my 15-meter log at 1735.

"Starting at 1741, 10 was open well into Chile and Argentina, and a bit less so to Brazil. The 10-meter SA opening was starting to fade at 1900. Back on 20 at 1927, there was a good auroral sporadic-E opening to Scandinavia on 20. ZM1M New Zealand had a good long path signal at 1953, as did VK4TS in Queensland, Australia, shortly after that.

"On 15, starting at 2015, I worked New Zealand, Australia, Hawaii, and Alaska. A quick check of 10 at 2105 yielded five contacts with loud Hawaiians. I worked the first Japanese station, JA1ZGO, at 2125, but the auroral curtain was like a wall, and only big gun JAs were worked through 2355. I heard three Chinese stations due north from here, but didn't make any contacts.

"At sunset 2151, southern SA was loud, and I was thrilled to work JR1GSE at 2157. The low-band conditions were not good to northern EU on any band during the evening, but 40 did stay open to some extent to southern EU through 0200. Eighty-meter signals from Europe were down, and signals on 160 very weak.

"I managed some quick QSOs on 40 to UN9L, Kazakhstan; VK3GI, Australia, and ZM1A, New Zealand starting at 1133. Twenty was not fully open to EU at 1152, but much better 10 minutes later.

"I logged many EU over the next 70 minutes and was thrilled to be called by EX8MJ Kyrgyzstan who was weak, and UN0L. At 1304, I found good EU signals on 15, and soon some incredibly loud signals 20, peaking to 30 dB over S-9. Even stations in northern and northeastern Europe were very workable, but weaker.

"4L6QL, Georgia was my best DX to the east. At 1424, there was a weak opening to EU on 10. I logged Italy, Slovak Republic, and France, and CR3DX on Madeira (Africa). At 1524 on 10, I found ZD7BG, St. Helena Island, and at 1603 Croatia, Germany, Italy, Portugal, and 7Q6M Malawi. CR6K in Portugal was still heard at 1730, very late. The opening to EU on 15 lasted late, still okay but fading at 1650. I was able to keep a good EU QSO rate going on 20 through 1743, much later than on Saturday."

On December 3, N7RP reported from New Mexico:

"This morning a little after 8 AM local time, I worked HS0ZGC (Thailand) on 12 meters on FT8. He was working South American stations, and I did not see any other US stations work HS0ZGC other than me. I am just running 100 W to a vertical, so I have no idea what path it was. It was amazing, since it must have been around midnight there. He immediately uploaded to LoTW, so the contact is confirmed."

N7RP's QRZ.com profile[3] includes a narrative about his life in ham radio.

A 6,000-kilometer transequitorial propagation (TEP) contact between Aruba and Argentina on 2 meter SSB was reported[4].

Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW, reported from Easton, Pennsylvania (FN20jq):

"On Monday, November 30, 11-meter CB (27 MHz) was very active from coast to coast.

"Even if you're under heavy rain, with severe thunderstorms you still can detect stations via sporadic E well past the 2,600-mile (4,184-kilometer) range. Background noise levels varied between 3 to 5 dBm.

'Here are the locations I heard, distance, and sporadic-E hops:


o AZ (Tempe) - 2,072 miles (3,334 kilometers) (2x)


o CA (Los Angeles) - 2,384 (3836 kilometers) miles (2x)


o CA (San Diego) - 2,366 miles (3,807 kilometers) (2x)


o CO (Denver) - 1,567 miles (2,521 kilometers) (1x)


o MT (Bozeman) - 1,823 miles (2,933 kilometers) (2x)


o NM (Albuquerque) - 1,749 (2,814 kilometers) (1x)


o NV (Los Vegas) - 2,167 miles (3,487 kilometers) (2x)


o OK (Oklahoma City) - 1,261 miles (2,029 kilometers) (1x)


o PR (San Juan) - 2,625 miles (4,224 kilometers) (2x)


o TX (San Antonio) - 1,524 miles (2,452 kilometers) (1x)


o TX (El Paso) - 1,839 miles (2,959 kilometers) (2x)


o UT (Salt Lake City) - 1,908 miles (3,070 kilometers) (2x)


o WA (Seattle) - 2,349 miles (3,780 kilometers) (2x)


o Canada, Alberta (Calgary) - 1,974 miles (3,176 kilometers) (2x)


o Canada, British Columbia (Vancouver) - 2,377 miles (3,825 kilometers) (2x)


o Jamaica (Kingston) - 1,569 miles (2,525 kilometers) (1x)



Sunspot numbers for November 26 - December 2 were 43, 60, 67, 84, 62, 46, and 41, with a mean of 57.6. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 105.8, 106.3, 109.6, 116.3, 109.4, 104.1, and 104.9, with a mean of 108.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 8, 10, 6, 8, 2, and 4, with a mean of 6.4. Middle latitude A index was 5, 7, 9, 6, 6, 2, and 4, with a mean of 5.6.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[5] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[6] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[7] K9LA's Propagation Page.

A propagation bulletin archive[8] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[9] website.

Instructions[10] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[11] your reports and observations.


[1] https://bit.ly/2JJ3veM
[2] http://www.arrl.org/news/powerful-solar-flare-coronal-mass-ejection-occur-on-november-29
[3] https://www.qrz.com/lookup/n7rp
[4] https://bit.ly/2JJ3veM
[5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[7] http://k9la.us/
[8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[9] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[11] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

12/18/2020

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Solar activity has declined, with the weekly average daily sunspot number slipping from 57.6 last reporting week to 17.4 over the past week.

Solar flux averages also slipped over the past 2 weeks from 108.1 to 91.9 and to 82.1 over the most recent week. The latest solar flux prediction also appears soft. Solar flux is expected to peak at 86 on December 26-28, hit a low at 82 on January 1-10, and then peak again at 86 on January 21-24.

Predicted values over the next 45 days are 82 on December 18 - 24; 83 on December 25; 86 on December 26 - 28; 85, 84, and 83 on December 29 - 31; 82 on January 1 - January 10; 83, 83, and 84 on January 11 - 13; 85 on January 14 - 20; 86 on January 21 - 24; 85, 84, and 83 on January 25 - 27, and 82 on January 28 - 31.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on December 18 - 20; 12 on December 21; 8 on December 22 - 25; 5 on December 26 - January 4; 10 on January 5 - 6; 5 on January 7 - 12; 8 on January 13; 5 on January 14 - 16; 10, 12, and 10 on January 17 - 19; 8 on January 20 - 21, and 5 on January 22 - 31.

Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for December 18 - January 12, 2021 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH. The geomagnetic field will be:


o quiet on December 28, January 4, 12


o quiet to unsettled on December 23, 29, 31, January 1, 3 - 4


o quiet to active on December 18, 24 - 27, 30, January 6, 8, 10 - 11


o unsettled to active December 19, 22, January 2, 5, 7, 9


o active to disturbed December 20 - 21


o Solar wind will intensify on December (20,) 21 ( - 23, 25,) 27 (28 - 29,) (January 1 - 3, 7 - 8)



Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

I noticed after the ARRL 10-Meter Contest[1] last weekend that K7RL had claimed an impressive score of 379,680. Checking his QRZ.com profile, I saw that he's not only surrounded by salt water on an island in Puget Sound but has an amazing collection of steel and aluminum in the air. He commented to the Western Washington DX Club email list:

"That was much more fun than expected. Every contest has that moment when an interesting mult calls in, or you hit a great opening. My moment was being called by ZD7BG on SSB.

"When the big openings hit both days, you had to be ready to step on the gas and run like crazy because it could end just as quickly. There was always some activity, it was mostly a matter of volume and signal strength. Some signals lasted seconds, if even that, while others were there almost all weekend like KV0Q and K0RF."

Another impressive effort, but on a much different scale, was K6ARK's solo SOTA operation[2].

The National Science Foundation has published an article[3], "New sunspot cycle could be one of the strongest on record."

An article[4] in Otago Daily Times celebrated the return of sunspots in New Zealand.

Sunspot numbers for December 10 - 16 were 11, 11, 24, 14, 25, 25, and 12, with a mean of 17.4. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 81.5, 83.3, 81.8, 80.6, 83, 82.9, and 81.9, with a mean of 82.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 7, 4, 5, 3, 3, and 3, with a mean of 4.7. Middle latitude A index was 6, 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, and 3, with a mean of 3.3.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[5] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[6] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[7] K9LA's Propagation Page.

A propagation bulletin archive[8] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[9] website.

Instructions[10] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[11] your reports and observations.


[1] http://www.arrl.org/10-meter
[2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFHHdzRgd7U
[3] https://www.nsf.gov/discoveries/disc_summ.jsp?cntn_id=301825
[4] https://www.odt.co.nz/lifestyle/magazine/return-sunspots
[5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[7] http://k9la.us/
[8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[9] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[11] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

12/25/2020

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Merry Christmas!

Sunspots went missing last Friday and Saturday, but large new sunspot group 2794 appeared on Sunday, December 21, and on Wednesday, Spaceweather.com[1] reported new sunspot group 2795 emerging over our sun's southeastern limb.

This disappearance depressed the average weekly sunspot number, which went from 17.4 last week to 10.3 this week, ending on Wednesday, December 23. Our reporting week runs from Thursday through Wednesday.

In spite of lower sunspot numbers, the average daily solar flux increased slightly from 82.1 to 82.8.

Average daily planetary A index increased from 4.7 to 7.3, and average daily middle latitude A index went from 3.3 to 6. These are still low numbers, indicating quiet geomagnetic conditions, so 160-meter propagation remains good, also aided by lower seasonal atmospheric noise as winter begins in the Northern Hemisphere.

Predicted solar flux for the next 30 days is

88 on December 25 - 30; 86 on December 31; 84 on January 1 - 6; 82 on January 7 - 12; 84 on January 13 - 20, and 86 on January 21 - 23.

Predicted geomagnetic indicators for the same period have the planetary A index at 15 and 8 on December 25 - 26; 5 on December 27 - January 4; 10 on January 5 - 6; 5 on January 7 - 12; 8 on January 13; 5 on January 14 - 16; 12, 8, and 18 on January 17 - 19, and 15, 10, 8, and 3 on January 20 - 23.

Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for December 25 - January 19 from OK1HH. Geomagnetic field will be:


o quiet on January 4, 12 - 14


o quiet to unsettled on December 28 - 31, January 1 - 3, 15


o quiet to active on December 25 - 27, January 6, 8, 10 - 11, 16


o unsettled to active January 2, 5, 7, 9, 17, 19


o active to disturbed January 18


o Solar wind will intensify on December (25,) 27 (28 - 29), (January 1 - 3, 7 - 9, 18,) 19



Notes:

-Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

-The predictability of changes is lower again, as there are ambiguous and changing indications.

I wish you a blessed Christmas, positive thinking, and negative tests! - F. K. Janda, OK1HH, Czech Propagation Interest Group, compiling these geomagnetic activity weekly forecasts since January 1978.

Steve, NN4X, reported working a VK and a ZL via 15-meter long path around 1915 UTC on December 23 using FT8. NN4X is in Florida, southeast of Orlando. His antenna (two stacked six-element Yagis) is highly directional, so he has no doubt this was long path. He was also heard at 3D2 and KH6. He writes, "I've been a ham since 1977, and this stuff never gets boring!"

Check out his impressive array of antennas listed on his QRZ.com[2] profile. He sent a PSK reporter[3] screenshot showing he was copied all over the world, except Asia.

Jeff, N8II, wrote on December 19.

"Today, we had two contests - the RAC and 9A CW (Croatia, everybody works everybody). 15 was a bit marginal into western Canada, but I worked MB, SK, AB, and BC plus several VE3s on backscatter. 15 meters was open to southern and central EU at the 1400 UTC 9A CW start, but with few loud signals. By 1500 UTC most activity disappeared. 20 meter signals were loud from both eastern and western Canada and Europe, with the band starting to close around 1615 UTC. My last EU QSOs were with Geoff, GM8OFQ, in the Orkney Islands (S-9 + 10dB) and Tom, G1IZQ, (S-9 with QSB) just after 1700 UTC.

"Signals from EU have been weaker and openings much shorter on 15 meters in general this past week due to the drop in solar activity. One day I had a QSO with a loud Norwegian who was S-9 around 1400 UTC, but in general most signals have been from southern EU.�

"Our sunsets are already later here by 3 minutes, but sunrises will get later until about December 31 due to the elliptical orbit of the Earth, so openings to the east will get later."

Here's the latest[4] from Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

Sunspot numbers for December 17 - 23 were 12, 0, 0, 11, 11, 11, and 27, with a mean of 10.3. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 81.6, 80.5, 81.7, 83.8, 79.6, 85.8, and 86.4, with a mean of 82.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 2, 3, 5, 4, 12, 13, and 12, with a mean of 7.3. Middle latitude A index was 2, 2, 4, 4, 8, 11, and 11, with a mean of 6.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[5] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[6] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[7] K9LA's Propagation Page.

A propagation bulletin archive[8] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[9] website.

Instructions[10] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[11] your reports and observations.


[1] http://www.spaceweather.com/
[2] http://www.qrz.com/
[3] https://pskreporter.info/
[4] https://bit.ly/3aIEWKq
[5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[7] http://k9la.us/
[8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[9] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[11] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

01/01/2021

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Solar Ccle 25 is progressing normally, and with the new year, my outlook is optimistic. Solar minimum occurred just over a year ago (December 2019), and now we see very few days with no sunspots.

Both of the current sunspot groups (2794 and 2795) are about to slip across the sun's western horizon.

Average daily sunspot number this past week was 27.1, up from 10.3 the previous week. Average daily solar flux rose from 82.8 to 86.4.

Predicted solar flux over the next 30 days is 81 and 80 on January 1 - 2; 79 on January 3 - 4; 78 on January 5 - 8; 84 on January 9 - 14; 85, 86, and 87 on January 15 - 17; 88 on January 18 - 28; 87 on January 29, and 86 on January 30. It then dips to 84 on February 1 - 10.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on January 1 - 2; 8 and 5 on January 3 - 4; 8 on January 5 - 7; 5 on January 8 - 17; 10 on January 18 - 20; 8 on January 21; 5 on January 22 - 24; 10 on January 25, and 5 on January 26 - 30.

When I check the STEREO website[1] any possible coming activity, I don't see anything obvious, but do not be surprised if new activity appears soon - perhaps before mid-January - along with the predicted higher flux values.

Here's the geomagnetic forecast from J.K. Janda, OK1HH, of the Czech Propagation Interest Group for January 1 - 26, 2021. The geomagnetic field will be:


o quiet on January 1, 3, 13 - 14


o quiet to unsettled on January 2, 4, 8, 10, 12, 15 - 16, 21, 25 - 26


o quiet to active on January 5 - 7, 9, 11, 17, 22 - 23


o unsettled to active January 20, 24


o active to disturbed January 18 - 19


o Solar wind will intensify on January (1-3, 7-9, 19-20,) 21-22, (23, 25-26)



Notes:

Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

The predictability of changes is lower again, as there are ambiguous and changing indications.

Wishing a Happy New Year, positive thinking, and negative tests!

(The Czech Propagation Interest Group has been compiling this geomagnetic activity weekly forecasts since January 1978.)

Ted Leaf, K6HI, of Kona, Hawaii, shared another optimistic report[2] on new Solar Cycle 25. Here's more[3] on the NCAR prediction and the solar clock.

Sunspot numbers for December 24 - 30, 2020, were 25, 30, 31, 26, 26, 26, and 26, with a mean of 27.1. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 87.4, 87.7, 87.9, 87.8, 87.2, 84.2, and 82.8, with a mean of 86.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 5, 4, 6, 7, 7, and 9, with a mean of 6.9. Middle latitude A index was 7, 4, 3, 4, 6, 5, and 6, with a mean of 5.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[4] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[5] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[6] K9LA's Propagation Page.

A propagation bulletin archive[7] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[8] website.

Instructions[9] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[10] your reports and observations.


[1] https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
[2] https://earthsky.org/space/sunspot-cycle-25-among-strongest-on-record-says-ncar
[3] https://www.ibtimes.com/prominent-scientists-predict-unusually-strong-solar-cycle-contradicting-previous-3110532
[4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[6] http://k9la.us/
[7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[8] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[9] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[10] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

01/08/2021

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Sunspots disappeared after January 2, so the average daily sunspot number dropped from 27.1 last week to 10 for the December 31 - January 6 reporting week. As a result, average daily solar flux declined as well, from 86.4 to 78.6.

Geomagnetic indicators remain quiet, with planetary A index changing from 6.9 to 5.1, and middle latitude numbers from 5 to 4.

This decline was unexpected, and of course we would rather see more and more sunspots as Solar Cycle 25 progresses, but this is normal. We expect a lot of variability in any sunspot cycle.

Predicted solar flux for the next 30 days looks depressed - far different from the high 80s we saw around Christmas. Solar flux is expected at 74 on January 8 - 15; 80 on January 16; 82 on January 17 - 27; 80 on January 28 - 31, and 78 on February 1 - 6. Flux values may rise to 82 around mid - February.

Planetary A index is predicted at 5 on January 8 - 9; 8 on January 10 - 11; 5 on January 12 - 16; 10 on January 17 - 20; 5 on January 21 - 24; 8 on January 25 - 26; 5 on January 27 - 31; then 10, 10, and 8 on February 1 - 3, and 5 on February 4 - 5. The A index may rise to 10 by mid-February.

This prediction[1], prepared by the US Air Force, is updated daily, usually after 2120 UTC.

Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for January 8 - February 3 from J.K. Janda, OK1HH.

Geomagnetic field will be:


o quiet on January 10, 12-14, 22, 30-31


o quiet to unsettled on January 11, 23, 27-29, February 1


o quiet to active on January 8, 15-16, 21, 24-26


o unsettled to active January 9, 17, 19-20, February 3


o active to disturbed January 18, February 2


o Solar wind will intensify on (January 8-9, 15-17, 19-20,) 21 (- 22, (23, 25-26,) February 2-3



Note: Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

The predictability of changes is lower again, as there are ambiguous and changing indications, including rapidly emerging and disappearing narrow bands of solar coronal holes.

Sunspot numbers for December 31 - January 6 were 25, 23, 22, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 10. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 81.2, 80.4, 81.5, 80.4, 77.6, 75.1, and 74.1, with a mean of 78.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 4, 2, 2, 3, 11, and 11, with a mean of 5.1. Middle latitude A index was 2, 3, 1, 1, 3, 9, and 9, with a mean of 4.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[2] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[3] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[4] K9LA's Propagation Page.

A propagation bulletin archive[5] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[6] website.

Instructions[7] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[8] your reports and observations.�


[1] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/
[2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[4] http://k9la.us/
[5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[6] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[7] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[8] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

01/15/2021

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: What happened? Solar Cycle 25 seemed well under way, but no new sunspots have emerged since December 23. The last time any sunspot was visible was January 2. On January 14, Spaceweather.com[1] posted, "Welcome back, solar minimum."

Average daily solar flux declined from 78.6 to 73.8. Geomagnetic A index remained quiet. Predicted solar flux for the next 30 days is 73, 73, and 74 on January 14 - 16; 75 on January 17 - 19; 73 and 75 on January 20 - 21; 78 on January 22 - 27; 77 on January 28 - 31; 75 on February 1 - 6, and 74 on February 7 - 12. Solar flux is expected to peak at 78 again after February 14.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on January 14 - 16; 10, 12, 10, and 8 on January 17 - 20; 5 on January 21 - 24; 8 on January 25 - 26; 5 on January 27 - 31; 10 on February 1 - 2, and 5 on February 3 - 12.

Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for January 15 - February 10, 2021 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH. The geomagnetic field will be:


o quiet on �January 22, 28 - 30, February 4, 10


o quiet to unsettled on �January 23, 25, 27, February 5 - 6, 9


o quiet to active on �January 15 - 16, 21, 24, 26, 31, February 1, 3


o unsettled to active �January 17 - 20, February 2, 7 - 8


o active to disturbed �none predicted


o Solar wind will intensify on January (19 - 20,) 21, (25 - 27, 31) February (1,) 2 - 3



Notes:

Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

The predictability of changes is lower again, as there are ambiguous and changing indicators.

Peering at the STEREO[2] spacecraft, at I see a promising bright spot a few days from now in our sun's southern hemisphere, so perhaps that indicates a new sunspot over the solar horizon. But I have been fooled by bright spots on STEREO in the past that did not emerge as sunspots.

A few days ago, Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, posted this video[3].

Jon Jones, N0JK, reports E-skip on 6 meters:

"Sporadic-E on 50 MHz dropped off after the first week of January. There was a sporadic-E opening I found January 10 with K8TB (EN72) in on FT8 at 1937 UTC.

"On January 14, a rare and unusual opening on 6 meters occurred between New England, VE1, and Europe. DK8NW and DK1MAX were spotted at 1415 UTC by WW1L (FN54).

"HA2NP was spotted by VE1P UTC (FN85) at 1436 UTC.� VE1PZ was spotted by OH6MW at 1430 UTC calling CQ on 50.313 MHz FT8.

"Propagation mode unclear but probably multi-hop sporadic-E. Solar flux only 73, unlikely to be F2."

Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA, gave an excellent talk on propagation for the Madison DX Club on January 12. The video[4] will be posted soon. Until then, you can also watch a presentation on Solar Cycle 25 by Douglas Biesecker of NOAA via the same link.

Here's some more speculation[5] about Solar Cycle 25.

WB8VLC in Salem, Oregon (CN84lv), sent an extensive listing of DX he's worked over the past few months, none of it using FT8 - just phone and CW. Recently on January 10 using a homemade Moxon antenna at 24 feet on 17 meters he worked TZ4AM on CW in Mali at 1903 UTC with 599 signals both ways, and a few minutes earlier at 1857 UTC on SSB he worked V51WH in Namibia, with S-9 signals that persisted for 2 hours.

In late November on 10 meter FM, he worked Brazil, Costa Rica, and Jamaica.

He wrote, "I like to promote the upper bands 10 and 12 meters to show that they are open more often than one would think."

Sunspot numbers for January 7 - 13 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 74.6, 75.2, 74.2, 73.1, 73.2, 72.8, and 73.2, with a mean of 73.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 2, 3, 3, 14, 9, and 4, with a mean of 5.9. Middle latitude A index was 4, 1, 2, 3, 10, 8, and 3, with a mean of 4.4.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[6] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[7] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[8] K9LA's Propagation Page.

A propagation bulletin archive[9] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[10] website.

Instructions[11] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[12] your reports and observations.


[1] http://www.spaceweather.com/
[2] https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
[3] https://youtu.be/x07w9xAqCSw
[4] http://www.madisondxclub.org/MDXC_Programs.html
[5] https://www.universetoday.com/149468/will-solar-cycle-25-dazzle-or-fizzle-in-2021/
[6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[8] http://k9la.us/
[9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[10] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[11] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[12] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

01/21/2021

We just witnessed 12 consecutive days with no sunspots, which many of us found a bit unsettling. But fortunately Solar Cycle 25 activity returned with a new sunspot on January 15.

Average daily sunspot number increased from zero last week, to 14.7 in the January 14-20 reporting period.

Average daily solar flux rose from 73.8 to 76.1, and geomagnetic indicators sank to very quiet levels. Average daily planetary A index dropped from 5.9 to 4, and average daily middle latitude A index from 4.4 to 3.

The outlook for the next month looks good. Predicted daily solar flux for the next 30 days is 80 on January 21 - 28; 75 on January 29 - February 3; 76 for February 4 - 10; 77 for February 11 -17, and 76 on February 18 - 19.

Predicted planetary A index is 14, 10, and 8 on January 21 - 23; 5 on January 24 - 25; 8 on January 26 - 28; 5 on January 29 - 31; 10 on February 1 - 2; 5 on February 3 - 13; 10, 10, 12, and 10 on February 14 - 17, and 5 on February 18 - 19.

Sunspot numbers for January 14 - 20 were 0, 13, 15, 23, 13, 14, and 25, with a mean of 14.7. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 73.6, 73.4, 77.7, 77.2, 75.3, 78.1, and 77.2, with a mean of 76.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 2, 3, 4, 3, 4, 6, and 6, with a mean of 4. Middle latitude A index was 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 6, and 5, with a mean of 3.

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

01/22/2021

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: We just witnessed 12 consecutive days with no sunspots, which many of us found a bit unsettling. Fortunately, Solar Cycle 25 activity returned with new sunspot 2796 on January 15. Instead of moving from the east across the solar horizon, it emerged in the southern hemisphere, just west of center.

Currently we are seeing sunspot regions 2797 and 2798, which emerged in the southeast, and looking at images from the STEREO spacecraft, I see another bright spot on the horizon.

Average daily sunspot number increased from zero last week, to 14.7 in the January 14 - 20 reporting period.

Average daily solar flux rose from 73.8 to 76.1, and geomagnetic indicators sank to very quiet levels. Average daily planetary A index dropped from 5.9 to 4, and average daily middle latitude A index from 4.4 to 3.

The outlook for the next month looks good. Predicted daily solar flux for the next 30 days is 80 on January 22-28; 75 on January 29 - February 3; 76 on February 4 - 10; 77 on February 11 - 17, and 76 on February 18-20.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on January 22 - 26; 8 on January 27 - 28, 5 on January 29 - 31; 10 on February 1 - 2; 5 on February 3 - 13; 10, 10, 12, and 10 on February 14 - 17, and 5 on February 18 - 20.

Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for January 22 - February 17 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

The geomagnetic field will be:


o quiet on January 22, 28 - 30, February 4, 10


o quiet to unsettled on January 23, 27, February 5 - 6, 9 - 13, 17


o quiet to active on January 24 - 26, 31, February 1, 3, 7, 14 - 16


o unsettled to active February 2, 8


o no active to disturbed days


o solar wind will intensify on January (25 - 27, 31,) February (1,) 2 - 3, (4, 8 - 10, 15 - 16).



Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement. The predictability of changes is much lower than previously, as there are very ambiguous indications.

Ken, N4SO, in Grand Bay, Alabama reports good results running 1 W into an inverted V on 80 meter CW. On January 15 at 0730 UTC, he worked V31MA in Belize. He is having fun late nights on 30 meters running FT8 and getting worldwide contacts.

Here's a video[1] of the recent propagation talk by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA, at the Madison DX Club.

Sunspot numbers for January 14 - 20 were 0, 13, 15, 23, 13, 14, and 25, with a mean of 14.7. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 73.6, 73.4, 77.7, 77.2, 75.3, 78.1, and 77.2, with a mean of 76.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 2, 3, 4, 3, 4, 6, and 6, with a mean of 4. Middle latitude A index was 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 6, and 5, with a mean of 3.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[2] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[3] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[4] K9LA's Propagation Page.

A propagation bulletin archive[5] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[6] website.

Instructions[7] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[8] your reports and observations.


[1] https://bit.ly/39SXS75
[2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[4] http://k9la.us/
[5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[6] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[7] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[8] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

01/29/2021

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Solar activity increased this week. We saw no spotless days, and the average daily sunspot number rose from 14.7 to 28.1. Average daily solar flux was up from 76.1 to 77.2.

Average daily planetary A index rose from 4 to 9.4, due to a minor geomagnetic storm on Monday. On that day Alaska's High Latitude College A Index was 33.

Predicted solar flux for the next 30 days is 76, 75, 74, and 74 on January 29 - February 1; 72, 70, 70, and 72 on February 2 - 5; 76 on February 6 - 10; 77 on February 11 - 20; 76 on February 21 - 2, and 75 on February 25 - 27.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 5, and 8 on January 29 - 31; 18, 12, and 8 on February 1 - 3; 5 on February 4 - 6; 10 on February 7 - 8; 5 on February 9 - 19; 8, 12, and 12 on February 20 - 22, and 5 on February 23 - 27.

Even after a nice stretch of days with sunspots, the 10.7-centimeter solar flux seems weak. Last week and this week we reported average daily solar flux of 73.8 and 78.6. But toward the end of 2020, the three bulletins reporting data from November 19 - December 9 had average daily solar flux at 90.1, 108.1, and 91.9.

On Thursday Spaceweather.com[1] reported a sunspot number of 26 and showed an image of two active regions on the sun, 2800 and 2797, but NOAA SESC showed[2] a sunspot number of zero for the same day. The NOAA SESC file is the only source used for sunspot numbers reported in this report.

Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January 29 - February 24 from F.K Janda, OK1HH.

The geomagnetic field will be:


o quiet on January 29 - 31, February 4, 10, (24)


o quiet to unsettled on February 5 - 6, 9 - 13, 17, 19


o quiet to active on February 1, 3, 7, 14 - 16, 18, 20, 22 - 23


o unsettled to active February (2, 8, 21)


o active to disturbed none predicted


o Solar wind will intensify on January (31,) February (1,) 2 - 3, (4, 8 - 10, 15 - 17, 20 - 21,) 22 - 24, (25)



Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement. The predictability of changes remains low, as indicators are ambiguous.

We ran across this Universe Today article[3] about tree rings as an indicator of historical solar activity

This weekend is the CW portion of the CQ 160-Meter Contest[4]. Geomagnetic activity is quite low, which is a favorable indication for 160 meters.

Imagine, if you will, the worst possible solar flare, maybe worse than the infamous Carrington Event, the one that made aurora visible all the way down to the equator and set fire to telegraph offices. Some smart people have done just that. Try not to scare yourself while reading this article[5] from the American Geophysical Union.

Presentations[6] from last weekend's Propagation Summit are available.

The Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, has a new mini-course[7].

KA3JAW enjoys monitoring the FM broadcast band and the 11-meter band for E-skip. He reported from Pennsylvania.

Nothing heard on the FM band, but Monday, January 25, was a great radio day for both single-hop and double-hop sporadic-e (Es) on 11 meters.

The spectacular event started early in the morning at 1145 UTC until late afternoon (2154 UTC). It all began with reception of short-hop Es into southern Maine at 7 AM. Signal was 20 dB over S-9 at a range of 300+ miles.

At 2 PM ET, double-hop Es western stations were heard, AZ, CA, UT, WA and Alberta, Canada.

And if that was not enough, I was hearing west coast stations calling out to HI.

Around 3:45 PM ET, western states, southern Texas (Houston, San Antonio, Waco) along with Florida (Tampa) were heard.�

Twenty-one states, two Canadian (Ontario and Alberta) and one Mexican (Tijuana), were heard. The list includes AL, AZ, CA, CT, FL, GA, IA, IN, KY, LA, ME, MI, MS, NC, OH, SC, TN, TX, UT, VA, and WA.

Sunspot numbers for January 21 - 27 were 26, 39, 34, 23, 26, 23, and 26, with a mean of 28.1. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 77.6, 78.2, 77.9, 77.6, 77.1, 75.7, and 76.3, with a mean of 77.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 4, 5, 5, 17, 21, and 11, with a mean of 9.4. Middle latitude A index was 2, 3, 3, 4, 14, 9, and 9, with a mean of 6.3.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[8] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[9] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[10] K9LA's Propagation Page.

A propagation bulletin archive[11] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[12] website.

Instructions[13] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[14] your reports and observations.


[1] http://www.spaceweather.com/
[2] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/DSD.txt
[3] https://www.universetoday.com/149733/tree-rings-reveal-1000-years-of-solar-activity/
[4] https://www.cq160.com/
[5] https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2020SW002489
[6] http://www.arrl.org/news/2021-propagation-summit-session-recordings-available
[7] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5aHtY2eufs
[8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[10] http://k9la.us/
[11] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[12] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[13] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[14] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

02/05/2021

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: We just witnessed 5 days in a row with zero sunspots, but on February 2 a small sunspot group (2801) appeared on our sun's northwest limb. It soon rotated off the sun's visible area, and on February 4, the sunspot number was back to zero.

We will probably see a few more days with no sunspots, but a return after February 11 is possible, when increased solar flux is forecast.

Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 28.1 reported in last week's bulletin ARLP005 to 3.3 this week. Average daily solar flux dropped 3 points from 77.2 to 74.2. Average daily planetary A index went from 9.4 to 6.7.

Solar flux over the next 30 days is predicted at 74 on February 5 - 11; 76 on February 12 - 16; 78 on February 17 - 22; 76 on February 23 - 25; 74 on February 26; 73 on February 27 - March 1, and 72 on March 2 - 7.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 8, 16, and 10 on February 5 - 8; 8 on February 9 - 10; 5 on February 11 - 20; 20, 16, and 12 on February 21 - 23; 5 on February 24-27; 18, 12, and 8 on February 28 - March 2; 5 on March 3 - 5, and 10 on March 6 - 7. A coronal hole may return on March 20 - 21 causing a rising A index.

Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for February 5 - March 2 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH. The geomagnetic field will be:


o quiet on February 18 - 19, 26 - 27


o quiet to unsettled on February 5 - 6, 9 - 13, 17, 24 - 25


o quiet to active on February 7 - 8 , 14 - 16, 20, 23, 28


o unsettled to active February 21 - 22, March 1 - 2


o active to disturbed nothing predicted


o solar wind will intensify on February (8 - 10, 15 - 17, 20 - 22,) 23 - 24, (25 - 28)�

Notes: Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

Predictability of changes remains low, as indications remain ambiguous.

Jon Jones, N0JK, reported, "Had some sporadic-E on 50 MHz the evening of February 1 (February 2 UTC). XE2TT (DL44) in on 50.313 MHz, 0205 UTC. Was on Saturday night for a couple of hours January 31 UTC for the CQ 160-Meter CW Contest. Band noisy due to snow and high winds in eastern Kansas. Made over 50 contacts with 5 W and a rain gutter antenna."

More from Jon the next day: "Some sporadic-E on 6 meters February 2 - 4. Es is rare in February. I worked WA2VJL (EL16) on 50.313 MHz FT8 from my mobile setup on February 2.

N0LL (EM09) is back on 6 meters after repairing storm damage to his antenna. On February 3 Larry worked XE2ML on 6 meters. VK3OER in Australia spotted K0TPP in Missouri. Possible sporadic-E-TEP across the Pacific Ocean.

XE2ML��� 21/02/04� 0010Z����� 50313.0�� EM09<ES>DL74���� N0LL

N0LL������ 21/02/04� 0009Z����� 50313.0�� DL74QB EM09������� TNX QSO XE2ML

Had some Es when I checked from my car at work. Decoded XE2OR, N7WB/p, K0JY, and XE2ML.

N7WB/P� 21/02/03� 2354Z����� 50313.0�� EM28IX�� ES DM51BI������������ N0JK

VK3OER spotted K0TPP.

K0TPP���� 21/02/04� 0036Z����� 50313.0 -16������������ CQ K0TPP correct!��������������� VK3OER�

In response to last week's bulletin and the subject of super-huge solar flares, Jon commented, "The VHF community is ready. Bring it on!"

This article[1] in Physics Today discusses solar magnetic waves and corona composition:

Here's the latest report[2] from Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

An audio tour[3] of the Sunspot, New Mexico, solar observatory.

Sunspot numbers for January 28 - February 3 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 12, and 11, with a mean of 28.1. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 75.6, 75.5, 73.7, 73.4, 73.7, 72.9, and 74.3, with a mean of 77.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 3, 2, 1, 5, 17, and 14, with a mean of 9.4. Middle latitude A index was 3, 2, 2, 0, 4, 11, and 10, with a mean of 6.3.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[4] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[5] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[6] K9LA's Propagation Page.

A propagation bulletin archive[7] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[8] website.

Instructions[9] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[10] your reports and observations.�


[1] https://physicstoday.scitation.org/do/10.1063/PT.6.1.20210203a/full/
[2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YJGL-Y49swQ
[3] https://voicemap.me/tour/otero-county-new-mexico/sunspot-solar-observatory-walking-tour/sites
[4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[6] http://k9la.us/
[7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[8] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[9] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[10] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

02/12/2021

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Sunspots are gone, with none seen since February 3. Spaceweather.com[1] reported on February 10 that a small proto-sunspot was struggling to form, but it was gone by the next day.

According to Spaceweather.com, 57% of the days so far in 2021 have been spotless. This is the same as the percentage of spotless days for all of 2020.

Average daily solar flux was 72.8 over the reporting week, with last week's average at 74.2. Average planetary A index increased from 6.7 to 7.7, and average daily middle latitude A index rose from 4.6 to 6. These are still low, quiet numbers, quite favorable for conditions on 80 and 160 meters, especially during winter.

Predicted solar flux for the next 30 days is 75 on February 12 - 19; 78 on February 20 - 22; 76 on February 23 - 25; 74 on February 26; 73 on February 27 - March 1; 72 on March 2 - 7; 74 on March 8 - 10, and 76 on March 11 - 13.

Flux values may rise to 78 again after the middle of March, just before spring equinox in the Northern Hemisphere, which occurs on March 20.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on February 12 - 14; 22 and 14 on February 15 - 16; 5 on February 17 - 20; 20, 16, and 12 on February 21 - 23; 5 on February 24 - 28, 18 and 14 on March 1 - 2; 5 on March 3 - 4; 8, 20, and 10 on March 5 - 7, and 5 on March 8 - 13.

Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for February 12 - March 9 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

The geomagnetic field will be:


o quiet on February 12, 18-19, 25-27, March 5, 8-9


o quiet to unsettled on February 13, 17, 24, March 3-4, 7


o quiet to active on February 14-16, 20, 23, 28, March 6


o unsettled to active February 21-22, March 1-2


o active to disturbed (none predicted)



Solar wind will intensify on February (15-17, 21-22,) 23-24, (25-26,) March 2-4

Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

Predictability of changes remains low, as indications are ambiguous.

Thank you to Jon Jones, N0JK, for this info[2] and an article[3] in Eos on personal space weather stations and a network tying them together.

Jon, who is in Eastern Kansas (EM28), also reported a major 6-meter sporadic E opening across North America on February 7 - 8 UTC. First spotted around 1430 UTC, the Es continued until 0440 UTC.

From Kansas, Texas was coming in via Es around 1620 UTC. Later, XE2ML (DL74) and XE2JS (DL78) showed up at 2220 UTC.

"New Zealand was copied by stations in New England, and W5LDA (EM15) in Oklahoma was received by ZL1RS on three FT8 sequences," Jon said.

Sunspot numbers for February 4 - 10 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 73.9, 72.8, 72.5, 73.2, 73.6, 70, and 73.7, with a mean of 72.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 6, 7, 21, 6, 4, and 3, with a mean of 7.7. Middle latitude A index was 7, 3, 4, 18, 6, 3, and 1, with a mean of 6.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[4] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[5] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[6] K9LA's Propagation Page.

A propagation bulletin archive[7] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[8] website.

Instructions[9] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[10] your reports and observations.�


[1] http://www.spaceweather.com/
[2] https://hamsci.org/basic-project/personal-space-weather-station
[3] https://eos.org/features/ham-radio-forms-a-planet-sized-space-weather-sensor-network
[4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[6] http://k9la.us/
[7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[8] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[9] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[10] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

02/19/2021

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: A period of zero sunspots ran from February 4 - 17, but on Wednesday evening while viewing the STEREO spacecraft image[1], I saw a very bright area on our sun's northeast horizon. Shortly after, Spaceweather.com[2] reported, "A new active region is hiding just behind the sun's northeastern[3] limb. It might be a sunspot."

The next day, February 18, two new sunspot regions appeared in our sun's northern hemisphere, numbered 2802 and 2803. Region 2802 should soon rotate off the visible solar disc, and 2803 is the region just now crossing the eastern solar horizon.

Spaceweather.com warns us to expect a minor geomagnetic storm on February 21, triggered by a solar wind stream.

Average daily solar flux this week dropped from 72.8 to 72. Average daily planetary A index was unchanged from last week at 7.7.

Reported cracks in Earth's magnetic field on Tuesday allowed solar wind to pour in, sparking aurora around the Arctic Circle. Alaska's College A index jumped to 45 (A high number), after the K index hit seven at 0600 and 0900 UTC. This is from a single magnetometer near Fairbanks.

Predicted solar flux for the next 30 days is 71 on February 19 - 21; 70 on February 22 - 26; 73, 74, and, 73 on February 27 - March 1; 74 on March 2 - 3; 73 on March 4 - 6; 74, 70, and 74 on March 7 - 9; 76, 72, and 71 on March 10 - 12, and 72 on March 13 - 20. Flux values may rise to 76 again on March 23 - 24.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 8, 18, 12, and 10 on February 19 - 23; 5 on February 24 - 28; 18, 15, and 8 on March 1 - 3; 5 on March 4 - 5; 15 on March 6; 5 on March 7 - 11; 18, 10, 8, and 8 on March 12 - 15; 5 on March 16 - 19; and 18, 15, and 12 on March 20 - 22.

Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for February - March 16 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

The geomagnetic field will be:


o quiet on February 19, 25 - 27, March 5, 9 - 11, 14


o quiet to unsettled on February 20, 24, March 4, 7 - 8, 13, 16


o quiet to active on February 21, 23, 28, March 2 - 3, 12


o unsettled to active February 22, March 1, (6, 15)


o active to disturbed none predicted


o Solar wind will intensify on February (21,) 22 - 24, (25,) March (1,) 2 - 4, (5 - 8, 12 - 15)



Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

Predictability of changes remains low, as indicators are ambiguous.

Jeff Hartley, N8II, in West Virginia (FM19cj) sent this report last week:

"Sporadic E is slow to end for the winter season. On Sunday, February 7, we had Es to New England and to W/SW starting around 1915 UTC lasting until around 2145 UTC into Vermont. In the Vermont QSO Party, NS1DX, operating K2LE with big antennas, was S9 + 20 dB at one point around 2100 UTC on 15-meters SSB. I worked about seven Vermont QSOs total on 15 and added several on 20, which did not open from here until the Es. NX3A in Virginia, about 60 miles farther from Vermont, made five Vermont contacts on 10. I listened on 10, but there was nothing to Vermont when I checked.

F2 was definitely improved over a year ago into both Minnesota and British Columbia for their parties. On February 6, British Columbia was booming in to West Virginia the entire afternoon on 20, and there was an opening 1800 - 2000 UTC on 15 with good signals at the peak. Sunday was poorer, but still better than 2019 on 20.

Minnesota stations on 20 were loud most of the day on February 7 from 1445-2215 UTC.

Most days it is possible to work Europe on 15, but openings are short and most weak. MM5AJN/M near Aberdeen in northeast Scotland was about S-5 on 15 SSB on February 10 at 1415 UTC. Today, February 12, I worked a V51 in Namibia and TZ4AM (S-9) in Mali on 15 CW. Senegal was heard as well. I made one QSO with the Milan, Italy, area on 15 CW and a DJ5 in Stuttgart, Germany, on SSB.

Here's the latest report[4] from the Space Weather Woman, Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, from a few days ago.

This weekend is the CW portion of the ARRL International DX Contest[5].

Sunspot numbers for February 11 - 17 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 75.8, 72.1, 71.3, 71.4, 69.6, 71.5, and 72.4, with a mean of 72. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 5, 13, 4, 5, 15, and 8, with a mean of 7.7. Middle latitude A index was 2, 4, 10, 3, 3, 11, and 6, with a mean of 5.6.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[6] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[7] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[8] K9LA's Propagation Page.

A propagation bulletin archive[9] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[10] website.

Instructions[11] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[12] your reports and observations.


[1] https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
[2] http://www.spaceweather.com
[3] https://www.spaceweather.com/images2021/17feb21/f0171.jpg
[4] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BvWnL23vTIg&amp;feature=youtu.be
[5] https://contests.arrl.org/dxcw/
[6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[8] http://k9la.us/
[9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[10] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[11] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[12] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

02/26/2021

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Sunspots have returned, and solar activity increased on every day over the reporting week. On Thursday evening, Spaceweather.com[1] reported that sunspot group AR2804 had doubled in size in a single day.

The total sunspot area was 200 millionths of a solar hemisphere, a level not seen since the end of last year. It actually took 2 days to double - Tuesday through Thursday - covering 100, 150, and then 200.

The average daily sunspot number increased from zero to 19.6, while average daily solar flux rose from 72 to 75.7. Geomagnetic activity was also higher, with average daily planetary A index increasing from 7.7 to 16, and average daily mid-latitude A index rose from 5.6 to 12.4.

Predicted solar flux for the next 30 days is 80 on February 26 - 28, 78 on March 1; 74 on March 2 - 5; 73 on March 5 - 6; 74, 70, 74, and 76 on March 7 - 10; 72, 71, 72, and 70 on March 11 - 14; 71, 72, 71, 73, 76, and 75 on March 15 - 20; 72 on March 21 - 22; 76 on March 23 - 24; 74 and 73 on March 25 - 26, and 74 and 73 again on March 27 - 28.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on February 26 - March 1; 18 and 12 on March 2 - 3; 10, 8, and 15 on March 4 - 6; 5 on March 7 - 11; 15, 10, and 5 on March 12 - 14; 15, 5, 8, and 18 on March 15 - 18; 20 on March 19 - 20; 10 and 8 on March 21 - 22, and 5 on March 23 - 27.

The University of Bradford in the UK has an article[2], "Automated Solar Activicty Prediction (ASAP)" on its website. While this looks interesting, so far I have been unable to download any data more recent than 2009 or 2011.

Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for February 26 - March 23 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH, and the Czech Propagation Interest Group, which has been compiling these weekly forecasts since January 1978.

The geomagnetic field will be:


o quiet on March 9 - 10, 14


o quiet to unsettled on February 26 - 27, March 4 - 5, 13, 16 - 17, 20


o quiet to active on (February 28,) March 2 - 3, 7 - 8, 11, 15, 18 - 19, 21 - 23


o unsettled to active March (1,) 6, 12


o active to disturbed nothing expected


o Solar wind will intensify on February 28, March 1 - 3, (4 - 9, 12,) 13, (14, 16 - 22,)



Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement. Predictability of changes remains low, as some indications are ambiguous.

The Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, has posted this new video[3].

An article[4] in Forbes magazine describes recent space weather as "spicy:"

An article[5] on the Weatherboy site predicted "potent solar wind" for Monday, February 22, and included some interesting graphics:

An article[6] in the UK tabloid Express describes a solar "canyon of fire," but you need to page through a lot of other stuff to read the whole article.

Ken Brown, N4SO (EM50tk), wrote on February 19:

"One measure of propagation is to call CQ at a very low power on CW and look for returns on the Reverse Beacon Network. This was done with the [Elecraft] K2 power control knob all the way down, and on an Elecraft W1 power meter reading 100 mw on the lowest scale. Several CQs were called. KD7YZ responded with a single spot. Location: Greenup, Kentucky (EM88ll)." This was on 30 meters on February 14.

This weekend is the CQ 160-Meter SSB Contest[7].

Sunspot numbers for February 18 - 24 were 12, 12, 12, 11, 26, 31, and 33, with a mean of 19.6. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 71.1, 72.9, 76.4, 75.3, 75.9, 78.1, and 80.5, with a mean of 75.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 17, 20, 20, 17, 12, and 21, with a mean of 16. Middle latitude A index was 2, 13, 15, 18, 13, 10, and 16, with a mean of 12.4.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[8] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[9] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[10] K9LA's Propagation Page.

A propagation bulletin archive[11] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[12] website.

Instructions[13] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[14] your reports and observations.�


[1] http://www.spaceweather.com/
[2] http://spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk/asap/
[3] https://youtu.be/bNxuOtBMN2s
[4] https://www.forbes.com/sites/ericmack/2021/02/25/sunspots-solar-flares-auroras-space-weather-getting-spicy/?sh=6fbd01ef2e9e
[5] https://www.weatherboy.com/potent-solar-wind-could-impact-earth-on-tuesday/ [6] https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1400983/nasa-satellite-solar-flare-video-sunspot-soho-canyon-of-fire-evg
[7] https://www.cq160.com/
[8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[10] http://k9la.us/
[11] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[12] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[13] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[14] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

03/05/2021

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: We saw one day during the February 25 - March 3 reporting week - Monday, March 1 - with no sunspots, so the average daily sunspot number declined slightly from 19.6 to 18.9. Two new sunspot groups (2806 and 2807) appeared on Tuesday, March 2.

Average daily solar flux increased only slightly during the reporting week, from 75.7 to 76.7.

Average daily planetary A index softened slightly from 16 to 14.7, and the middle latitude average went from 12.4 to 10.4. Geomagnetic indicators remained somewhat active due to persistent solar wind. The most active day was Monday, when Alaska's high-latitude College A index reached 34.

Spaceweather.com[1] reported a G2 class geomagnetic storm on Monday, aided by a significant crack in Earth's magnetic field. Although activity was otherwise moderate this week, the March 1 event was the largest storm since a G3 event 94 weeks earlier, on May 14, 2019.

Predicted solar flux for the next 30 days is 80 on March 5; 78 on March 6; 78 on March 7 - 9; 72 on March 10 - 11; 71, 72, 70, 71, 72, and 71 on March 12 - 17; 73, 76, 75, 76, 78, and 81 on March 18 - 23; 80 on March 24 - 25; 79, 78, and 73 on March 26 - 28; 74 on March 29 - 30; 73 on March 31 - April 1, and 74 on April 2 - 3.

Predicted planetary A index is 10, 20, and 15 on March 5 - 7; 10 on March 8 - 9; 8, 5, 15, 10, and 5 on March 10 - 14; 15, 8, 5, and 18 on March 15 - 18; 20 on March 19 - 20; 18, 12, and 8 on March 21 - 23; 5 on March 24 - 27; 20, 15, and 10 on March 28 - 30; 5 on March 31 - April 1; 12 on April 2, and 5 on April 3 - 7.

Here's the geomagnetic forecast for Marcy 5 - 30 from J. K. Janda, OK1HH. The geomagnetic field will be:


o quiet on March 9 - 10, 14, (26 - 27)


o quiet to unsettled on March 5, 16 - 17, 25


o quiet to active on March 7 - 8, 11, 13, 15, 20 - 24


o unsettled to active March 12, 29


o active to disturbed March 6, 18 - 19, 28, 30


o Solar wind will intensify on March (5 - 9, 12 - 14, 16 - 22, 27,) 28 - 29



Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

Predictability of changes remains low.

W6MVT reports a surprising 10-meter opening to South America on the same Tuesday when sunspots re-appeared.

"It never hurts to turn on 10 meters or check the spots on DXMaps or your favorite spotter. I saw some action and was pleased I was at the radio. On March 2 around 2130 UTC 10-meter SSB was alive with South American stations and a good path to those of us in Southern California. With 100 W and a rotatable dipole only up 20 feet, I was able to log LU4DJB, PU2LUC, PY2EX, PY5QW, PU2SDX, and PY4NY in rapid succession, all with good reports both ways. Things faded out around 2200 UTC, but I was glad I caught it."

Larry, K8MU, sent this item[2] concerning a space plasma hurricane. Don't miss Larry's page on QRZ.com[3], showing lines and arrows with humorous text about his modest station, complete with steerable ground plane and incoming QSL receptacle.

This is from an email exchange with Frank Donovan, W3LPL, regarding Total Sunspot Area, which is shown daily along with SFI and SSN (Sunspot Number) in this table[4]. (SFI is 10.7-centimeter solar flux, uHem is solar micro-hemispheres, and EUV is extreme ultra-violet radiation.)

"Here are some additional insights regarding total sunspot area. SFI and total sunspot area are well correlated with each other and with EUV flux at the wavelengths that ionize the F2 region. Daily sunspot number is not well correlated, because tiny sunspots greatly affect it but have no effect on HF propagation. I usually ignore daily sunspot numbers unless total uHem exceeds 200.

"Today is a classic case with daily SILSO[5] sunspot number = 30, but total sunspot area is under 100 uHem and SFI is stuck at 75.

"Roughly 100 uHem elevates the SFI into the mid 70s but has only a minor effect on HF propagation.

"200 uHem roughly corresponds to SFI = 80 and usually improves 17 and 15 meter propagation. But, the normal daily variability of F2 MUFs is not well correlated to SFIs of about 80 and often swamps out the expected improvements from SFI = 80.

"HF MUFs increase more consistently when the SFI approaches 90. You may recall active region 12786 area was as high as 1,000 uHem last November, and the SFI was above 100 for 9 days. It greatly improved 15-meter propagation during the CQ World Wide DX CW contest, and there was significant 10-meter DX propagation too. Daily sunspot number varied wildly from 40 to 94 during this period, mostly because there were also three smaller active regions at during the period when 12786 was by far the most significant contributor to SFI greater than 100.

"The rough equivalencies are uHem to SFI:

100 = 75; 200 = 80; 400 = 90; 600 = 100; 800 = 110; 1,000 = 120; 1,200 = 130; 1,400 = 140; 1,500 = 150; 1,600 = 160; 1,800 = 170, and 2,000 = 180."

This weekend is the ARRL International DX Contest (phone)[6].

Here's a NASA video[7] of a solar flare from Science Times.

This is a recent video forecast[8] from the Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

Sunspot numbers for February 25 - March 3 were 31, 16, 14, 13, 0, 28, and 30, with a mean of 18.9. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 80.1, 80.1, 79.2, 77.7, 71, 74.7, and 74.2, with a mean of 76.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 13, 11, 4, 6, 26, 20, and 23, with a mean of 14.7. Middle latitude A index was 13, 8, 3, 4, 16, 14, and 15, with a mean of 10.4.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[9] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[10] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[11] K9LA's Propagation Page.

A propagation bulletin archive[12] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[13] website.

Instructions[14] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

�

Share[15] your reports and observations.

�


[1] http://www.spaceweather.com/
[2] https://phys.org/news/2021-03-space-hurricane.html
[3] http://www.qrz.com/
[4] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/DSD.txt
[5] http://www.sidc.be/silso/
[6] http://www.arrl.org/arrl-dx%20for%20details
[7] https://bit.ly/3re3WP7
[8] https://youtu.be/j1rSS9iVsK4
[9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[11] http://k9la.us/
[12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[13] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[14] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[15] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

03/19/2021

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Average daily sunspot numbers this week rose just a little, from 18.4 to 19, and average daily solar flux edged up from 78.9 to 78.1. Solar activity remains low.

The vernal equinox, (the first day of spring in the northern hemisphere) occurs at 0937 UTC on Saturday, March 20. That's when the southern and northern hemispheres will be bathed in approximately equal amounts of solar radiation, which has a positive effect of HF propagation.

On March 17 - 18, the daily sunspot number was only 12 on both days, but the total sunspot area rose from 50 to 200 microhemispheres. Sunspot area was last at this level on February 25. The Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) offers daily statistics[1] on daily sunspot area, sunspot numbers, and solar flux.

Average daily planetary A index rose from 7.6 to 10.3, and average daily middle-latitude A index increased from 6.1 to 7.3. Solar wind on March 14 drove the planetary A index to 25, and Alaska's College A index was 37.

On Wednesday March 17, Spaceweather.com[2] warned that minor geomagnetic unrest was expected on March 18, due to a co-rotating interactive region that would disturb our magnetic field. "CIRs are transition zones between fast and slow-moving solar wind streams. Plasma piles up in these regions, creating shock-like density gradients that often do a good job sparking auroras," Spaceweather said.

On March 18 Spaceweather.com reported, "NOAA forecasters say that a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm is likely on March 20 - 21 when a stream of high-speed solar wind hits Earth's magnetic field. The gaseous material is flowing faster than 600 kilometers/second from a southern hole in the sun's atmosphere."

The latest forecast from the US Air Force Space Weather Squadron predicts solar flux at 72 on March 19 - 21; 70 on March 22 - 26; 76 on March 27; 76 on March 27; 75 on March 28 - April 1; 78 on April 2 - 3; 70, 74, 76, and 72 on April 4 - 7; 71, 72, and 70 on April 8 - 10; 71, 72, and 71 on April 11 - 13, and 73, 76, 75, and 76 on April 14 - 16. Solar flux is expected to hit a high of 81 on April 19.

Predicted planetary A index is 12, 24, 20, 15, 12, 8, and 10 on March 19 - 25; 5 on March 26 - 27; 25 on March 28; 20 on March 29 - 30; 10, 5, 15, and 8 on March 31 - April 3; 5 on April 4 - 7; 15, 18, 20, and 15 on April 8 - 11; 8, 5, and 8 on April 12 - 14; 20 on April 15 - 16, and 18 on April 17. The A index may peak at 25 again on April 24.

Here is more[3] about the US Air Force and space weather.

This is the geomagnetic activity forecast for March 19- April 13 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH. The geomagnetic field will be:


o quiet on March (27) April 1, 4, 6, 12


o quiet to unsettled on March 25 - 26, April 3, 5, 7


o quiet to active on March 22 - 24, 31, April 13


o unsettled to active March 21, April 2, 8 - 9, 11


o active to disturbed March (19 - 20) 28 - 30, April 10


o Solar wind will intensify on March (19) 20 - 22, (23, 27) 28 - 29, (30 April 1 - 2, (3 - 5, 8,) 9 - 10, (11).



Parentheses indicate lower probability of activity enhancement. Predictability of changes remains very low, as indicators remain ambiguous.

At 2358 UTC on March 17 Australia's Space Weather Services sent this alert:

"A large southern polar coronal hole with low-latitude extensions will become geoeffective with the CIR possibly arriving from late on March 19 UTC, causing unsettled to active conditions. The HSS from the coronal hole is expected to follow on 20 March UTC, causing active conditions with the possibility of a G1 minor storm. Active conditions are expected to continue on March 21. Aurora may be visible from Tasmania at night on March 19 -20."

Dave Bono, K6OAK, in Fremont, California reports:

"On Monday, March 15, just before 1900 UTC, 6 and 10 meters were dead, but I noticed a few signals on 12-meter FT8, one being a fairly strong signal from VP8NO in the Falklands. After a few attempts I was able to make contact and received a respectable -10 report. I was running 50 W into a ground-mounted vertical antenna. Not bad for a few minutes in the shack."

Mike, KA3JAW in Easton, PA (FN20jq) reports 6-meter activity:

"On March 13 at 1627 UTC, 6-meter sporadic-E began to appear on FT8 50.313 MHz with stations from the central states of Illinois, Missouri, Kentucky, Nebraska, Iowa, and Kansas for over 3.5 hours from the first Es cloud formation.

"1659 UTC heard VO1SIX in Newfoundland, Canada (GN27jd), at 1,090 miles coming in from 65� azimuth from a second Es cloud formation.

"1830 UTC Es starts to spread out directly west into the central states of Nebraska, Iowa, and Kansas.

"The farthest distance came from KQ0P (EM19wf) at 1,109 miles, 271� azimuth with a signal of -6 dB, while the radio power output was 15 W using a half-wave dipole at 6 feet above ground."

The American Geophysical Union (AGU) posted an article[4], "A 21st Century View of the March 1989 Magnetic Storm," remembering the Quebec event of 1989.

Arizona TV station KTAR posted[5] "Solar cycle 25 is well underway in 2021 with sunspot action" on its website. It includes some interesting links:

An article[6] on the Brinkwire website, "Solar Activity Reconstructed Over a Millennium - Sun's Eleven-Year Cycle Traced Back to the Year 969," takes a historical perspective.

VA7JW offers an overview[7] of the Dominion Radio Astrophysical Observatory at Penticton, which supplies us with solar flux data.

Sunspot numbers for March 11 - 17 were 23, 15, 12, 24, 24, 23, and 12, with a mean of 19. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 78.2, 76.9, 81.1, 78, 74.8, 79.2, and 78.2, with a mean of 78.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 12, 17, 25, 7, 4, and 3, with a mean of 10.3. Middle latitude A index was 3, 9, 13, 17, 5, 2, and 2, with a mean of 7.3.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[8] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[9] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[10] K9LA's Propagation Page.

A propagation bulletin archive[11] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[12] website.

Instructions[13] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[14] your reports and observations.�


[1] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/DSD.txt
[2] http://www.spaceweather.com/
[3] https://www.557weatherwing.af.mil/About-Us/Fact-Sheets/Article/871846/2d-weather-squadron-radio-solar-telescope-network/
[4] https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019SW002278
[5] https://ktar.com/story/4178316/solar-cycle-25-is-well-underway-in-2021-with-sunspot-action/
[6] https://en.brinkwire.com/science/solar-activity-reconstructed-over-a-millennium-suns-eleven-year-cycle-traced-back-to-the-year-969/
[7] http://archive.nsarc.ca/hf/drao_solar.pdf
[8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[10] http://k9la.us/
[11] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[12] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[13] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[14] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

03/26/2021

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: On March 21 and 22 two new sunspot groups, 2811 and 2812, appeared. Average daily sunspot number this week faded a bit from 19 to 17.9, but average daily solar flux went from 78.1 to 78.6. Neither change is significant.

We haven't seen a day with no sunspots since March 1, so that brings the percentage of spotless days so far this year to 38%, down from 57% last year and 77% in 2019.

Geomagnetic activity was steady throughout this week, with average daily planetary A index rising from 10.3 to 13.3, and average middle latitude A index from 7.3 to 10.4. But geomagnetic conditions were disturbed at higher latitudes.

Alaska's College A index, measured near Fairbanks, was 40 and 45 on March 20 - 21. This was reflected in a report from N6QEK/KL7 in North Pole, Alaska (a town southeast of Fairbanks, not at the North Pole), who wrote, "HF frequencies here in the interior of Alaska were wiped out for the BARTG RTTY contest. FT8 signals were almost nonexistent as well."

Saturday was the first day of spring in the Northern Hemisphere and fall in the Southern Hemisphere, positive indications for HF propagation.

Predicted solar flux over the next month is 80 on March 26 - 27; 75 on March 28 - 31; 70 on April 1 - 2; 80 and 81 on April 3 - 4; 82 on April 5 - 7; 81 on April 8; 80 on April 9 - 10; 78 and 76 on April 11 - 12; 75 on April 13 - 14; 76 on April 15; 77 on April 16 - 17; 76 on April 18 - 20, 77 on April 21, and 78 on April 22 - 28. Solar flux is expected to peak at 82 on May 2 - 4.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on March 26; 5 on March 27; 25 on March 28; 20 on March 29 - 30; 12 on March 31; 8 on April 1 - 3; 5 on April 4 - 7; 15, 18, and 20 on April 8 - 10; 5 on April 11 - 15; 25, 22, 20, 15, and 8 on April 16 - 20; 5 on April 21 - 23; 25 on April 24, and 20 on April 25 - 26.

Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for March 26 - April 20 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

The geomagnetic field will be:


o quiet on April 1, 6 - 7, 12 - 13


o quiet to unsettled on March 26 - 27, 31, April 5, 14, 18


o quiet to active on April 2 - 4, 15, 20


o unsettled to active March 29, April 8, 11, 19


o active to disturbed March 28, 30, April 9 - 10, 16 - 17


o Solar wind will intensify on March (28,) 29 - 30, (31,) April 2 - 3, (4 - 6, 8 - 9,) 10 - 11, (12, 16 - 17,) 18 - 19, (20)



Remarks:

Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

Predictability of changes remains very low, as there are irregular and ambiguous indications.

Jon Jones, N0JK, wrote on March 22:

"More on the March 13 sporadic-E opening. The month of March has the lowest occurrence of sporadic-E propagation of any month of the year. Thus, I consider any sporadic-E on 6 meters in March noteworthy.

"There was some afternoon TEP (transequatorial propagation) on 6 meters between Florida and South America March 21. Stations such as W4AS, KD4ESV, KV4HV, in Florida worked CX and LU stations around 2100 UTC. K0GU (DN70) in Colorado spotted LU9FVS, perhaps a sporadic-E to TEP link. The K index was 5, indicating 'storm' geomagnetic field conditions."

This article[1] mentions solar cycle predictions and mentions predicted "peak rates of more than 200 sunspots at a time." But the writer may have made a common error, confusing the daily sunspot number with the actual number of sunspots - two very different numbers.

To review, to calculate the sunspot number, we count a value of 10 for each sunspot group, than add a value of 1 for each sunspot within those groups.

I noticed something strange about the NOAA SESC reported solar flux of 79 on March 23. NOAA gets the solar flux values[2] from the Penticton, British Columbia, Dominion Radio Astrophysical Observatory noon reading, which is also my source. NOAA rounds off these values to the nearest whole number, which should have been 82.

Now that it is March, I will pause to reflect. The FCC issued my Novice license (WN7CSK) on March 23, 1965, when I was 12 years old. When the ticket finally arrived, I was very, very excited.

I asked my mother to hang her bright red sweater in the dining room window when any envelope from the FCC arrived, so I could see it from my school bus. When I saw Mom's sweater, I leaped from my seat, and ran to the front of the bus, whooping and hollering. This only confirmed for my schoolmates what they already knew, that I really was crazy. Fifty-six years later, this vivid memory lingers.

It was 30 years ago (this week?) that I began writing this bulletin after a sudden increase in solar flux that I felt was noteworthy. But, ARRL had just announced that Ed Tilton, W1HDQ, who authored this propagation bulletin was ill, so it was suspended for the time being.

I fell into writing the bulletin when I called ARRL Headquarters, because I thought it should put out a bulletin with this solar news. The individual I spoke with wondered who might write this, so I offered. Then, the next week Headquarters asked for another bulletin.

I also called W1HDQ, who at that time was living in Florida. His wife answered the phone, but said he was too ill to talk on the phone. She asked what I was calling about, and when I told her the solar flux value, she replied, "Oh he'll want to hear about this!" and I spoke with Ed briefly, who seemed exited by the news.

Unfortunately, W1HDQ never recovered, so I kept writing the ARRL Propagation Bulletin. I have since been unable to learn when he began writing it. I recall copying the bulletin from W1AW on 20-meter CW in 1966, but before that is unclear. Nobody seems to know. I wish I had asked Ed about this when we spoke.

Sunspot numbers for March 18 - 24 were 12, 14, 12, 12, 23, 26, and 26, with a mean of 17.9. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 73.4, 73.5, 80.3, 77.1, 80.4, 81.8, and 83.6, with a mean of 78.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 6, 29, 24, 8, 11, and 11, with a mean of 13.3. Middle latitude A index was 4, 6, 20, 17, 6, 9, and 11, with a mean of 10.4.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[3] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[4] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[5] K9LA's Propagation Page.

A propagation bulletin archive[6] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[7] website.

Instructions[8] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[9] your reports and observations.

�


[1] https://stardate.org/radio/program/2021-03-22
[2] https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php
[3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[5] http://k9la.us/
[6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[7] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[8] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[9] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

04/02/2021

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Average daily sunspot numbers declined this week from 17.9 to 11.9. Why? Because on the final 2 days of the March 25 - 31 reporting week sunspots disappeared. That's right. We're back to the blank sun again, unfortunately.

Spaceweather.com[1] reported on Wednesday that we may soon see a potential sunspot[2] that's currently on the far side of our sun.

Average daily solar flux dropped from 78.6 to 77.4. Geomagnetic indicators softened as well, with average daily planetary A index declining from 13.3 to 8.9, and middle latitude A index from 10.4 to 7.7.

Predicted solar flux over the next month does not look promising, with values way down in the 70s, although this forecast improved some over the past couple of days. Expect 10.7-centimeter flux at 73 on April 2 - 3; 71 on April 4 - 9; 73 on April 10 - 13; 74 on April 14 - 16; 76 on April 17 - 24; 75 on April 25 - 27; 74 and 73 on April 28 - 29, and 72 on April 30 - May 5.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on April 2 - 5; 8 on April 6 - 7; 5, 10, and 20 on April 8 - 10; 5 on April 11 - 15; 20 and 18 on April 16 - 17; 8 on April 18 - 19; 5 on April 20 - 21; 8 on April 22 - 24; 12 on April 25; 8 on April 26 - 27; 5 on April 28 - 30; 8 on May 1 - 2; 5 on May 3 - 4, and 12 on May 5 - 7.

Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for April 2 - 27 from OK1HH. The geomagnetic field will be:


o quiet on April 12 - 13, 24 - 26


o quiet to unsettled on April 5, 14, 23


o quiet to active on April (2 - 7, 15, 20 - 22, 27)


o unsettled to active April (8, 11, 18 - 19)


o active to disturbed April (9 - 10,) 16 - 17


o Solar wind will intensify on April 3, (4-5, 8-9,) 10-11, (12, 16-17,) 18, (19-22, 27)



Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement. Predictability of changes remains very low, as there are� ambiguous and quickly changing indications.

This article[3] in The Irish Times asks, "Was space weather the cause of the Titanic disaster?"

NN4X reported a 15-meter long path opening to Asia: "Nice opening to Asia here in Central Florida on the morning of April 1.

"On FT8, I worked BA7LP, YD7ACD, BG7PHA, and VR2VLY, and heard 9V1PL and BD7LMA.

"It was very concentrated. Note, no JA/HL/DU. Typically, I've been seeing more YBs than anything on 15-meter LP, but certainly not today."

Many years ago we reported in this bulletin the results JQ2UOZ was getting running one-half watt using simple wire antennas on his apartment balcony. Check out his blog[4].

Another blast from the past[5] on flares and CMEs:

This article[6] in The Conversation discusses, "Why we need to get better at predicting space�weather."

The Carrington Event, mentioned in this article[7], "Extreme solar storms may be more frequent than previously thought," continues to fascinate.

AL7LO has a collection of his favorite ARRL Propagation Bulletins, and he shared this one[8] from 8 years ago.

Sunspot numbers for March 25 - 31 were 24, 24, 11, 11, 13, 0, and 0, with a mean of 11.9. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 78.8, 79.6, 80.4, 75.1, 74.4, 79.5, and 73.8, with a mean of 77.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 18, 12, 9, 6, 4, 3, and 10, with a mean of 8.9. Middle latitude A index was 18, 11, 7, 4, 3, 4, and 7, with a mean of 7.7.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[9] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[10] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[11] K9LA's Propagation Page.

A propagation bulletin archive[12] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[13] website.

Instructions[14] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[15] your reports and observations.�


[1] http://www.spaceweather.com/
[2] https://www.spaceweather.com/images2021/29mar21/farside.jpg
[3] https://www.irishtimes.com/news/science/was-space-weather-the-cause-of-the-titanic-disaster-1.4518921
[4] https://jq2uoz.blogspot.com/
[5] http://cse.ssl.berkeley.edu/coronalweather/CMEsFlares/index.html
[6] https://theconversation.com/why-we-need-to-get-better-at-predicting-space-weather-157630
[7] https://bisouv.com/uncategorized/3530537/extreme-solar-storms-may-be-more-frequent-than-previously-thought/
[8] http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP001/2013
[9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[11] http://k9la.us/
[12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[13] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[14] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[15] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

04/09/2021

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Sunspots were only visible on 4 days of the current reporting week - on April 3-6 - and now on Friday morning, still no sunspots.

As a result, average daily sunspot number declined from 11.9 last week to 6.4 currently. Average daily solar flux also dropped from 77.4 to 73.4. On Thursday the daily solar flux was 74, just above the average for the previous 7 days, 73.4. The sun remained blank.

Average daily planetary A index declined from 8.9 to 6.6, and average mid-latitude A index slipped from 7.7 to 5.6.

Predicted solar flux for the next month is 74 on April 9 - 15; 72 on April 16 - 20; 74 on April 21 - 26; 73 on April 27 - May 1; 72 on May 2 - 5; 70 on May 6 - 10, and 71 on May 11 - 12; 74 is not a high 10.7-centimeter flux value, but it should be there on May 18 and beyond.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 10, and 8 on April 9 - 11; 5 on April 12 - 13; 8 on April 14 - 15; 15 and 18 on April 16 - 17; 8 on April 18 - 19; 5 on April 20 - 21; 8 on April 22 - 24; 5 on April 25 - May 1; 8 on May 2 - 4, and 5 on May 5 - 12.

Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for April 9 - May 4 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

The geomagnetic field will be:


o quiet on April 25, May 1 - 3


o quiet to unsettled on April 18, 20, 22, 26, 28 - 30


o quiet to active on April 19, 23 - 34, 27


o unsettled to active April (9 - 11,) 17, 21 - 22


o active to disturbed April 16, May 4


o Solar wind will intensify on April (9 - 11, 16,) 18 - 19,( 21 - 22, then irregularly between April 23 - May 1,) May 3 - 4

Remarks:

Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

Predictability of changes remains very low, as there are a lack of indications and contradictions between them.

Des, ND3L wrote: "I was off the air for 28 years. Got back on a year ago. I'm in the process of inputting my old logs into QRZ.com logbook. Back in 1989 I had a stretch of 11 pages of all 10-meter contacts with 25 contacts per page. Found five new countries that I never had confirmed. Operators were still around and had old logs and confirmed. Took me from 284 to 289 confirmed in 1 week! In early 1989, daily sunspot numbers ranged from 134 to 161. We didn't know we had it so good!"

Ken Brown, N4SO on Alabama's Gulf Coast reports on 17-meter FT8. On March 28, he worked ZD8HZ on Ascension Island at 2117 UTC, over a distance of 5,509 miles.

Later, from 2207 to 2345 UTC he worked "JA5AQC, JR7VHZ, JG1SRB, JR1FYS, JR7TEQ, JL1UXH, JA2KVD, JA1JAN, JA0MRW, JA3FQO, JA3PCQ, JO1LVZ, JA3APV, JA2QXP, and on the 29th and 30th worked a total of 10 more Japanese stations, some call signs repeated from the 28th."

WB8VLC in Salem, Oregon, is seeing consistent 10-meter activity, which is a nice surprise considering the very low solar activity and probably too early in the year for e-skip.

He reported: "As usual 10 meters has been open here in northwestern Oregon pretty much every week to South America, but the interesting openings were on two weekends in March, when E51JD in Rarotonga South Cook Islands has been in on 10 meter SSB along with KH6ZM on RTTY and the usual South Americans." (KH6ZM is on the Big Island).

JQ2UOZ wrote: Hi, Tad-san, K7RA. Thank you very much for mentioning me in the latest bulletin. By the way, I have found a very interesting article[1] about the solar cycle. "Gradual onset of the Maunder Minimum revealed by high-precision carbon-14 analyses." (Scientific Reports, vol 11, article number 5482 [2021]).

The author describes in the Abstract, "Here we show that the 11-year solar cycles were significantly lengthened before the onset of the Maunder Minimum (1645 - 1715 CE) based on unprecedentedly high-precision data of carbon-14 content in tree rings. It implies that flow speed in the convection zone is an essential parameter to determine long-term solar activity variations. We find that a 16 year-long cycle had occurred three solar cycles before the onset of prolonged sunspot disappearance, suggesting a longer-than-expected preparatory period for the grand minimum. As the Sun has shown a tendency of cycle lengthening since Solar Cycle 23 (1996 - 2008 CE), the behavior of Solar Cycle 25 can be critically important to the later solar activity. I hope to have an active Solar Cycle 25."

Some readers may find this article[2] from 1997 of interest.

Here's a recent video update[3] from Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, the Space Weather Woman.

Sunspot numbers for April 1 - 7 were 0, 0, 12, 11, 11, 11, and 0, with a mean of 6.4. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 77.9, 72.1, 72.8, 70, 71.9, 73.6, and 75.7, with a mean of 73.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 6, 4, 3, 5, 3, and 17, with a mean of 6.6 Middle latitude A index was 8, 4, 2, 2, 5, 3, and 15, with a mean of 5.6.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[4] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[5] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[6] K9LA's Propagation Page.

A propagation bulletin archive[7] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[8] website.

Instructions[9] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[10] your reports and observations.


[1] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-84830-5
[2] http://scholarworks.csun.edu/bitstream/handle/10211.3/198498/Chapman-GA-Solar-1997.pdf
[3] https://youtu.be/pwRcJ-YcVzk
[4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[6] http://k9la.us/
[7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[8] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[9] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[10] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

04/16/2021

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: On April 12, new sunspot group AR2814 appeared following 5 days of no sunspots. Daily sunspot numbers on the next 4 days were 16, 16, 17, and 22, taking the average daily sunspot number for the April 8-14 reporting week from 6.4 last week to 7. The April 15 sunspot number of 22 was not included in this average. So far in 2021, 39% of the days had no sunspots.

Geomagnetic indicators were quiet, with average daily planetary A index declining slightly from 6.6 to 5.1. Likewise, middle latitude A index changed from 5.6 to 4.1.

On April 14 Spaceweather.com[1] reported a high-speed stream of solar wind from a hole in the sun's southern hemisphere. This could produce a minor geomagnetic storm on April 17.

At 2338 UTC on April 14 and again at 0239 UTC on April 16, the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued this Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning: Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase to active levels with a chance of an isolated minor storm period from late on April 16, due to coronal hole effects. The April 16 warning said to expect the effects to continue through Sunday, April 18.

Predicted solar flux is 74 on April 16 - 19; 72 on April 20 - 21; 70 on April 22 - 23; 75 on April 24 - May 8; 72 on May 9 - 17, and 75 on May 18 through the end of the month.

Predicted planetary A index is 18, 20, and 16 on April 16 - 18; 12, 8, 5, and 10 on April 19 - 22; 8 on April 23 - 24; 5 on April 25 - 26; 10 and 8 on April 27 - 28; 5 on April 29 - May 3; 15 on May 4; 5 on May 5 - 7; 8 on May 8; 5 on May 9 - 10; 8 on May 11 - 12; 5 on May 13; 20 on May 14; 8 on May 15 - 16, and 5 on May 17 - 18.

Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for April 16 - May 11 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH, who has been compiled this weekly bulletin since January 1978.

The geomagnetic field will be:


o quiet on April 25, May 1-3, 5


o quiet to unsettled on April 26, 28-30, May 6-11


o quiet to active on April 19-20, 23-24


o unsettled to active April 21-22, 27


o active to disturbed April 16-17, (18,) May 4


o Solar wind will intensify on April (16-17,) 18-19, (21-22, then irregularly between April 23-May 1,) May 3-5, (6-7, 10-11)



Parentheses means lower probability of activity enhancement.

Jon Jones, N0JK, reported on April 15: Stations in New England spotted CE2SV and CE3SX (FF46) on 50.313 MHz FT8 ~ 2200 UTC on April 13. Likely a sporadic-E link to transequatorial propagation (TEP). AC4TO (EM70) in Florida reported 18 DX contacts in 10 countries on April 13. Solar flux was 83.

Steve Sacco, NN4X reported: Here in Florida, we saw a late-afternoon opening into Europe on both 10 and 12 meters. Looking west on 10 on FT8, I noticed ZL3IO completing a QSO with CT1ENI, and then calling EA5RW. Note that it's the middle of the night in EU at 2034 UTC.

Don't miss this truly remarkable presentation[2] on "HF Ionospheric Propagation" by Frank Donovan, W3LPL, to the Central Arizona DX Association

Universe Today has an article[3] on Galileo sunspot drawings and an application of artificial intelligence.

Here is the April 14 report and forecast[4] from Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

Sunspot numbers for April 8 - 14 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 16, 16, and 17, with a mean of 7. The 10.7 centimeter flux was 74, 77.8, 70.4, 72.9, 82.8, 72.8, and 74.4, with a mean of 75. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 3, 5, 6, 5, 5, and 7, with a mean of 5.1. Middle latitude A index was 3, 2, 3, 5, 4, 5, and 7, with a mean of 4.1.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[5] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[6] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[7] K9LA's Propagation Page.

A propagation bulletin archive[8] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[9] website.

Instructions[10] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[11] your reports and observations.


[1] http://www.spaceweather.com/
[2] https://youtu.be/4-pBa3Eyxsk
[3] https://bit.ly/3dZHGmw
[4] https://youtu.be/Tti4AZUa458
[5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[7] http://k9la.us/
[8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[9] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[11] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

04/23/2021

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Four new sunspots emerged this week and were visible every day.

Spaceweather.com issued a warning on April 22: "A CME is heading for Earth. and it could spark a geomagnetic storm when it arrives on April 25. NOAA forecasters say moderately strong G2-class storms are possible, which means auroras could dip into northern-tier US states from Maine to Washington."

Average daily sunspot number surged from 7 to 35.1, while average daily solar flux increased from 75 to 78.

Due to seemingly constant solar wind, average planetary A index rose from 5.1 to 16.4, and average daily middle latitude A index went from 4.1 to 13.

Predicted solar flux is 84 on April 23 - 24; 82 on April 25 - 27; 80 on April 28; 78 on April 29 - 30; 68 on May 1 - 2; 78 on May 3; 72 on May 4 - 9; 75 on May 10 - 15; 78 on May 16; 75 on May 17 - 18; 72 on May 19; 70 on May 20 - 23, and 68 on May 24 - 29.

Predicted planetary A index is 10, 8, 25, and 12 on April 23 - 26; 5 on April 27 - May 3; 15 on May 4; 5 on May 5 - 7; 8 on May 8; 5 on May 9 - 10; 8, 12, 20, 30, 15, 12, and 8 on May 11 - 17; 5 on May 18 - 19, and 8, 12 and 5 on May 20 - 22.

Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for April 23 - May 18 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

The geomagnetic field will be:


o quiet on May 1 - 3, 5, 18


o quiet to unsettled on April 28 - 30, May 6 - 11, 17


o quiet to active on April 26, May 12


o unsettled to active April 27, May 16, 18


o active to disturbed April 23, (24 - 25,) May (4,) 13 - 14, (15)


o Solar wind will intensify on April 23 - 25, (then irregularly between April 26 - May 1), May 3 - 5, (6 - 7, 10 - 11, 16,) 17 - 18, (18)



Remarks:

- Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

- Contradictory indications significantly reduce the accuracy of the forecast.

Frank Donovan, W3LPL, says the long-anticipated significant increase in Solar Cycle 25 activity may have begun on April 19.

"As a result, 30- and 20-meter nighttime propagation and 17- and 15-meter daytime propagation is likely to be enhanced through at least April 26. The solar flux index (SFI) is likely to remain at 85 or higher through at least April 26 due to two active regions on the sun's surface, 2816 and 2817, containing 16 sunspots in all. Two additional active solar regions[1] on the far side of the sun[2] are expected to rotate into view later this week, possibly increasing the SFI and extending enhanced propagation through late April".

See Donovan's article, "What to Expect During the Rising Years of Solar Cycle 25," in the May 2021 issue of QST.

Donovan says the new sunspots are fading faster than he'd hoped, but the steady trend of increasing sunspots should soon sustain the solar flux above 80.

Long-distance propagation forecast for Thursday - Friday, April 22 - 23 from Frank Donovan, W3LPL:

"My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages is published five days a week (M - F) in The Daily DX[3].

"Propagation at low and mid-latitudes is likely to be normal through Friday. Propagation crossing the auroral oval and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal, with below normal intervals through Friday.

"Today's latest planetary Kp Index[4], updated every 3 hours

"N0NBH's current HF band conditions[5], updated regularly

"The solar flux index (SFI) is likely to be about 78 through Friday.

"Three active regions containing a total of 17 mostly tiny sunspots are having minimal effect on HF propagation.

"We are exiting the most disturbed weeks of the March - April geomagnetic storm season, when Earth is passing through the part of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) with the most frequent, longest duration southward oriented IMF. Approximately twice as many brief minor and moderate geomagnetic storms occur during March and April compared to the quieter IMF during June and July. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be triggered with little warning when the IMF rotates to a southward orientation and persists for several hours coincident with the effects of earth-directed coronal hole high-speed streams and coronal mass ejection (CME) enhancements in the solar wind.

"Short-path on 160 and 80 meters from North America to VK/ZL is likely to be normal through Friday. Eighty and forty meter short path propagation to south Asia is likely to be mostly normal at about 0030 UTC Friday. Eighty and forty meter short-path propagation from North America to east Asia after about 0900 UTC is likely to be mostly normal with below normal intervals through Friday.

"Thirty meter propagation through the auroral ovals and across polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with below normal intervals through Friday. Thirty meter propagation is always significantly degraded within a few hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation. Thirty meter nighttime propagation is likely to improve slightly through Friday, due to solar flux index of 78.

"Twenty meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals and across polar regions is likely to be mostly normal, with below normal intervals through Friday. Twenty meter northern trans-polar propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset will steadily improve with gradually increasing electron density in the polar F2 region through June. Twenty meter night time long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is likely to improve slightly through Friday due to solar flux index of 78.

"Seventeen and fifteen meter daytime long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is likely to improve slightly through Friday due to solar flux of 78. Twelve and ten meter daytime long distance propagation is likely to be mostly unreliable and limited to propagation from North America to Southern Africa, South Atlantic, South America, and South Pacific regions.

"Geomagnetic disturbances caused by coronal hole high speed streams are likely to remain mostly brief, minor, and less frequent through at least late 2021. The north-south (Bz) component of the IMF plays a crucial role in triggering brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms when it persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with enhanced field strength for several hours coincident with the effects of earth-directed coronal hole high-speed stream or CME enhancements in the solar wind.

"IMF field strength, solar wind speed near earth and geomagnetic activity are likely to be at close to background levels through Friday with a possible enhancement late Friday due to coronal hole high-speed stream effects. There is a slight possibility that an M-Class solar flare may cause a brief sudden ionospheric disturbance and short-wave fadeout on the sun-facing side of the earth late Thursday.

"Geomagnetic storms and earth-directed CMEs strong enough to affect HF propagation are not likely through Friday.

"Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is now 32 minutes later, and the daylight period is 81 minutes longer than it was on March 20.

"Daylight period is increasing by 2 minutes per day, which is steadily lengthening the duration of common daylight between distant locations in the northern hemisphere. Solar elevation in the northern polar region is increasing by about 3� degrees per week, steadily improving 20 meter northern trans-polar propagation through June.

"Today's Penticton 10.7-centimeter solar flux index[6] is updated at 1700, 2000, and 2300 UTC daily."

Today's 2-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast[7] is updated every 3 hours.

Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity[8] is updated at 1230 UTC daily.

Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion[9] is updated at 0030 and 1230 UTC daily.

Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast[10]is updated at 2330 UTC daily.

These[11] are perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers.

The April 2021 NASA solar flux index forecast[12]�for Solar Cycle 25 has been published, mostly advancing the date for solar maximum to 2024. The SFI represented by the 50% percentile (green line) is similar to Solar Cycle 24. A double peaked solar cycle - similar to recent Solar Cycles 23 and 24 - could delay solar maximum by a year or more.

Here's slightly updated wording to W3LPL's May QST article, unconstrained by QST page limits and reflecting NASA's predicted solar maximum in 2024:

"If the SFI persists below 90 through December 2021, then propagation should improve gradually until a solar maximum weaker than Cycle 24's arrives in 2024.

"If the SFI persists above 110 through December 2021, then propagation should improve rapidly until a solar maximum similar to Cycle 24's arrives in 2024.

"If the SFI persists above 125 through December 2021, then propagation is likely to improve more rapidly until a solar maximum stronger than Cycle 24's arrives in 2024."

Vote[13] for your favorite May QST article.

N4SO recommends an article in the March-April edition of QEX, "The onset of Solar Cycle 25 and the MGII Index," by VE6TL.

Jon Jones, N0JK reported an April 20 TEP opening to South America on 6 meters, and sent a long list of stations copied from 2022-2023 UTC, and this report:

"CE6CGX copied me. 10 W, quarter-wave whip. Jon N0JK EM28 KS

"RX at Tue, 20 Apr 2021 20:25:01 GMT."

"From N0JK by CE6CGX Loc FF31qp

"Frequency: 50.314.248 MHz (6m), FT8,��-6dB

"Distance: 8846 km bearing 162�"

On April 19 Jon, N0JK, reported that VP8EME in the Falkland Islands was heard on 6 meters by KE8FD and K1TOL around 1800 UTC. "Looks like the summer sporadic-E season has begun," he observed.

KA3JAW of Easton, Pennsylvania, reported a long 6-meter opening on April 19, 1435�-�1706 UTC. "Best DX range was with N5DG [EM20AB] Hempstead, Texas, at 1,374 miles," he said.

And from Cuba:

"Hi, CO7WT, Pavel Milanes here from Camag�ey Cuba, FL11bj. I'd like to report a huge opening on 6 meters on Saturday, April 17, 2020. I was calibrating my homebrew 6-meter transverter to get access to the magic band (Noise generator, SDR, NanoVNA), and out of the blue, a digital signal came up for a few seconds on my SDR screen. Hmm... weird. No antenna is connected, just coax from the tests, then there it's a mental calculation spotted the 18.313 MHz, aka 50.313 (32.000 MHz XTAL). That's FT8! A local ham, I think at first. Connected my antenna (Cushcraft 3 element Yagi) and boom! Loud signals from North America and some from LU and CE on the side/back of the Yagi. Sadly, the transmit side of the transverter is not ready yet. Here are links (1[14]) (2[15]) to some photos on Twitter.

"I spotted at least three beacons, one from W4, and the other was too unstable to decode properly as they come and go. See photos. Some of the ones calling on FT8 had signals dancing up and down in a pattern of a few minutes. I think of sporadic E, as this is the season."

Sunspot numbers for April 15 - 21 were 22, 44, 28, 15, 36, 54, and 47, with a mean of 35.1. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 72, 76.5, 75.3, 78.1, 85.9, 80, and 78, with a mean of 78. Estimated planetary A indices were 13, 19, 29, 16, 18, 13, and 7, with a mean of 16.4. Middle latitude A index was 11, 15, 20, 13, 15, 10, and 7, with a mean of 13.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[16] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[17] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[18] K9LA's Propagation Page.

A propagation bulletin archive[19] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[20] website.

Instructions[21] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[22] your reports and observations.�


[1] http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/images/SDO/SDO_HMIIF_1024.jpg
[2] https://www.solarham.net/farside.htm
[3] http://www.dailydx.com/
[4] https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif
[5] http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
[6] https://bit.ly/2Qq0jIH
[7] https://bit.ly/3noJqdH
[8] http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/
[9] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
[10] https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
[11] http://dx.qsl.net/propagation20http:/www.solarham.net
[12] https://go.nasa.gov/2RYl2DW
[13] http://www.arrl.org/cover-plaque-poll
[14] https://twitter.com/co7wt/status/1383490344231202827
[15] https://twitter.com/co7wt/status/1383526601367818244
[16] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[17] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[18] http://k9la.us/
[19] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[20] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[21] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[22] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

04/30/2021

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Sunspots have continued to appear every day after April 11 - the last day with no sunspots.

Average daily sunspot number rose this week from 35.1 to 47.6, and average daily solar flux also rose, from 78 to 79.2.

Geomagnetic indicators were quieter, with average daily planetary A index declining from 16.4 to 10.7. The most active day was April 25 with a planetary A index of 20.

Predicted solar flux over the next month is 77, 75, and 72 on April 30 - May 2; 70 on May 3 - 6; 72 on May 7 - 9; 73 on May 10 - 11; 74 on May 12 - 13; 77 on May 14; 79 on May 15 - 23; 78 on May 24 - 2, and 75 and 73 on May 28 - 29.

Predicted planetary A index 8 on April 30 - May 1; 15, 12, 12, and 8 on May 2 - 5; 5 on May 6 - 10; 8, 12, 20, and 30 on May 11 - 14; 15 on May 15 - 16; 12 on May 17; 5 on May 18 - 19; 15 and 10 on May 20 - 21; 5 on May 22 - 28, and 15, 12, and 10 on May 29 - 31. After that, things are quiet over the first week of June.

Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for April 30 - May 25 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH. The geomagnetic field will be:


o quiet on May 18 - 19, 25


o quiet to unsettled on May 5 - 11, 17, 24


o quiet to active on April 30, May 12, 20 - 23


o unsettled to active May (1 - 4,) 16


o active to disturbed May 13 - 14, (15)


o Solar wind will intensify on (April 30 - May 1),



May 3 - 5, (6 - 7, 10 - 11, 16,) 17 - 18, (21 - 25)

Remarks

* Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

* Contradictory indications significantly reduce the accuracy of the forecast.

Jon, N0JK, in Kansas, reports:

"On April 26 @ 2100z I copied LU2FFD (FF97) on 50.313 MHz FT8 at -11 dB. Did not complete a contact. This was a sporadic E to TEP path."

Update from Frank, W3LPL:

"Propagation is somewhat better, but at times somewhat worse, as Solar Cycle 25 somewhat fitfully climbs toward solar maximum, likely in late 2024. Slowly improving propagation interrupted by more frequent and intense geomagnetic storms are both encouraging indicators that Solar Cycle 25 is starting to accelerate to solar maximum likely in late 2024.

"The recent sustained rise in SFI is a positive indicator that Solar Cycle 25 is finally starting to accelerate and gradually improve propagation on the higher bands. So far the improvement is minor, but the recent sustained increased SFI is good news and an indicator of likely significant improvement during the night on 20 and 30 meters this summer and generally improved propagation on 30 meters and above by the October/November contests.

"The solar flux[1] adjusted for the varying distance between the earth and the sun, has been mostly in the high 70s and low 80s since mid-April. This slowly rising trend is likely to continue, and we're likely to see adjusted SFI sustaining in the low to mid 80s or even higher by this summer.

"The other good news - yes, good news - is that coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are now occurring much more frequently. More frequent CMEs are a reliable indicator of accelerating Solar Cycle 25 progress. Fortunately, CMEs significantly degrade propagation only when two conditions are met simultaneously: (1) the CME is earth directed, and (2) the orientation of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field is southwards (-Bz).

"By now, May QST has arrived in everyone's mailbox. Because NASA now forecasts solar maximum in 2024, you may want to get out the red pencil and revise the four occurrences of '2025' in my article to '2024.'"

WB8VLC reported from Salem, Oregon, on April 24:

"Another 10 meter good day. Today 10 is open again on both SSB to South America (Chile) and CW to New Zealand, with great signals even though the solar numbers are nothing to brag about.

"A quick listing of today's openings up to this time and the band is still open but I'm just listening now.

"Two contacts are fine for me today, as I don't like being a DX Piggy and I'd rather listen and let others have at it while I do some radio programming on some new 6 meter FM land mobile radios, and while I'm listening now the band is still going long to ZL on CW, and Chile on SSB:"




2021-04-24



19:51



CE7VPQ



28.455



SSB FE36fu Chile




2021-04-24



20:54



ZL3IO



28.026



CW RF80lf New Zealand



Earlier he reported:

"This is a small report what with me only having a couple of hours of time to get on the radio these days on weekends and week-day real work-work and these are stations that I worked during my breaks.

"April 22 on 10-meter FT8 was interesting, with a nice opening to Indonesia on 28.074.

"Even though it's FT8, the Indonesians were audible, with tones actually moving my K3'S S-meter to around 5/5.

"April 20 was a great day with activity on 29.6 FM to New Mexico and Brazil using my cross-coupled 10 FM to 220 remote base while at work during breaks.

"The weekend of April 18 was typical of what I experience every weekend, SSB and CW to South America with strong sigs for hours.

"My setup is a K3S with homebrew LDMOS amp at ~300 W on SSB/CW into a 4el OWA Yagi at 30 feet.

"For 29.6 FM, I use a Motorola Maxtrac with 60 W out that is cross-connected to a 220 MHZ Maxtrac set up as a remote base system, so I can operate 10 FM from work during lunch time, and I use the same 4-element OWA Yagi as I use on SSB/CW when operating FM:"




2021-04-22



01:53



YC9FZ



28.074



FT8



OI71ph



Indonesia




2021-04-22



01:46



YB2MM



28.074



FT8



OI43tc



Indonesia




2021-04-20



21:48



PY2HP



29.600



FM



GG66



Brazil




2021-04-20



19:02



WA6BJH



29.600



FM



DM75am



USA




2021-04-18



19:50



PY2TMV



28.470



SSB



GG67pt



Brazil




2021-04-18



19:13



ZV5M



28.020



CW



GG54rl



Brazil



Here's an article[2] from Oxford Academic on forecasting Solar Cycle 25

Ted Leaf, K6HI, sent this EarthSky article[3] about a flare in another solar system.

Sunspot numbers for April 22 - 28 were 42, 29, 62, 57, 54, 47 and 42, with a mean of 47.6. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 83.5, 77.4, 78.5, 78.8, 80.3, 79.4, and 76.8, with a mean of 79.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 15, 10, 20, 14, 8, and 3, with a mean of 10.7. Middle latitude A index was 4, 15, 10, 16, 12, 8, and 4, with a mean of 9.9.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[4] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[5] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[6] K9LA's Propagation Page.

A propagation bulletin archive[7] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[8] website.

Instructions[9] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[10] your reports and observations.�


[1] https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php
[2] https://academic.oup.com/mnras/advance-article-abstract/doi/10.1093/mnras/stab1159/6253222
[3] https://earthsky.org/space/record-breaking-flare-from-proxima-centauri
[4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[6] http://k9la.us/
[7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[8] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[9] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[10] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

05/07/2021

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Our sun seems to have fallen back into a very quiet phase, far different from the way it looked in November 2020. That was 6 months ago, and we assumed that since we were emerging from a solar minimum, by now we would be seeing much more solar activity. It hasn't happened. More recently, sunspots disappeared after May 1, and solar flux naturally declined as well.

Sunspots were visible only the first 3 days of the April 29 - May 5 reporting week, so the average daily sunspot number declined from 47.6 last week to 11.9 in the current period.

But early this morning, May 7, a new sunspot group 2822 is emerging over the sun's northeastern horizon. You can see it as that white splotchy mass crossing the upper left in this STEREO satellite image[1].

Over the past week the average daily solar flux slipped by 7 points, from 79.2 to 72.2. It seems odd, but both the average daily planetary and middle latitude A index remained the same for both weeks, 10.7 and 9.9 respectively.

Predicted solar flux for the next month appears listless, never even reaching 80, with values of 71 on May 7; 72 on May 8 - 9; 74 on May 10 - 11; 75 on May 12 - 13; 77 on May 14; 79 on May 15 - 17; 77 on May 18 - 21; 75 on May 22 - 24; 74 on May 25 - 26; 72 on May 27; 70 on May 28 - 31; 72 on June 1 - 4, and 74 on June 5 - 7.

The planetary A index projection shows 5 on May 7 - 8; 8 on May 9 - 10; 5 on May 11 - 13; 15 on May 14 - 16; 12 on May 17; 5 on May 18 - 19; 15 and 10 on May 20 - 21; 5 on May 22 - 29; 12 on May 30 - 31; 10 on June 1, and 5 on June 2 - 6.

Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for May 7 - June 1 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

The geomagnetic field will be:


o quiet on: May 7 - 8, 18 - 19, 25 - 26


o quiet to unsettled on: May 9 - 11, 17, 24, 31, June 1


o quiet to active on: May 12, (20 - 23, 27)


o unsettled to active: May 16, 28 - 30


o active to disturbed: May 13 - 14, (15)


o Solar wind will intensify on: May (10 - 11, 16,) 17 - 18, (21 - 25,) 28 - 30



Remarks:

Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

Contradictory indications significantly reduce the accuracy of the forecast.

Contester Frank Donovan, W3LPL, says about twice as many geomagnetic storms occur during March and April, as compared to June and July. The ratio of severe (Kp = 8 or 9) storms is much greater. But, he points out, the end of "geomagnetic storm season" doesn't mean the end of geomagnetic storms; two of the most severe (Kp = 8+) geomagnetic storms during Solar Cycle 24 occurred on June 22 and 23, 2015.

Storms during June and July are not as frequent, as strong, nor as long lasting as they are during the geomagnetic storm seasons of March/April and September/October. But geomagnetic storms even the most severe storms (Kp = 8 or 9) can occur at any time with little warning.

We've had two moderate (Kp = 6) storms so far this year, both during March. We also had eight minor (Kp = 5) storms: five in March and one each in January, February, and April.

Often I will check PSKReporter[2] for FT8 signals reported on 6 or 10 meters over the most recent 15 minutes. If I set it to "country of the call sign" instead of my grid square, I often notice signals detected in the southeast of North America when nothing is happening here on the west coast.

Right now late at night, it is reporting 6 meter FT8 signals over a 545-mile path from N2GHR to N8NQ at 0639 UTC, and then on 10 meters at 0658 UTC 381 miles KO4FSZ to KC2DUX at -2 dB. That's almost audible!

KB1XP in Connecticut (FN31po) reports, "It seems that 20-meter early morning propagation is improving with the increased sunspot activity lately. I had a brief but productive 20-meter band opening on May 3 from 0536 to 0558 EDT and worked JH1XPA, JA7LGE, JR7RHO Japan stations on FT8 with good signal reports. Hopefully, this is a sign of good things to come."

On May 5, WB8VLC reported from Salem, Oregon, "True to form, 10 meters still provides interesting DX. This weekend like clockwork E51JD was back in on SSB, but this opening was short and much weaker than previous days. But still even with low SFI numbers he was workable.

"On the 29.6-MHz FM side, a good sporadic-e opening on May 2 brought the Los Angeles area in with regulars AA6DD, K6YYL, and N6OS worked with typical 59+ reports on 29.6 FM. Then today, TI2JS on 29.6 FM.

"The interesting day, however, was May 3, when I dropped down to 28.074 FT8 just to see if the band was open, calling CQ DX on FT8. I use it here at times on a quiet band just to see where I should point my beam.

"Well this brought almost two dozen Japan contacts on 10 FT8. But one station, JD1BMH on Ogasawara Island, stood out of the group, and after I signed with Ogasawara on FT8 I dropped down to 28.072 CW, and after just one CQ DX, JD1BMH Ogasawara saw me on his waterfall and came down to CW for a quick contact.

"Sigs with Ogasawara were over 559 on CW both directions, and after we signed JD1BMH called CQ for the next 35 minutes.

"No other Japan stations took the bait to move off FT8 and drop to CW, so it was only Ogasawara worked on CW, which was fine for me.

"Today was another interesting day on 29.6 FM, with TI2JS in Costa Rica worked on FM with nobody else heard all day.

"I worked 22 Japan stations on 28.074 FT8, one KL7, and one VK4, all worked on May 3 on FT8, 28.074.

"On 6 meters on May 2, 3, and 4 a bit of 50.125 SSB, 50.094 CW and even some 52.525 FM brought some nice QSOs with Arizona, Utah and California on 6 meters."

Steve Sacco, NN4X, sent these articles [1[3]] [2[4]] about timelines of spaceweather storms:

Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, posted her latest report[5] a few days ago.

Sunspot numbers for April 29 - May 5 were 37, 35, 11, 0, 0, 0 and 0, with a mean of 11.9. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 76.9, 72.9, 71.6, 72, 71.6, 70.6, and 69.5, with a mean of 72.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 15, 10, 20, 14, 8, and 3, with a mean of 10.7. Middle latitude A index was 4, 15, 10, 16, 12, 8, and 4, with a mean of 9.9.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[6] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[7] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[8] K9LA's Propagation Page.

A propagation bulletin archive[9] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[10] website.

Instructions[11] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[12] your reports and observations.�


[1] https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
[2] https://www.pskreporter.info/pskmap.html
[3] https://bit.ly/3b99KmU
[4] https://bit.ly/3b6ljvm
[5] https://youtu.be/CjiAIMDXEFk
[6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[8] http://k9la.us/
[9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[10] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[11] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[12] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

05/14/2021

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Sunspot activity returned last Friday, May 7, and has held steady since. Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 11.9 to 21.1, and average daily solar flux was up 2.1 points to 74.3 for the reporting week ending May 12.

Geomagnetic activity was quiet until Wednesday, May 12, when the planetary A index went to 41 as the result of a coronal mass ejection (CME) that blasted out of the sun on May 9. It was not expected to be very strong, but when it struck on May 12, it sparked a G3 class geomagnetic storm - the strongest in the current solar cycle.

The planetary A index rose to 41, far above an average of 3.8 on the previous 6 days. The average daily planetary A index for the May 6 - 12 reporting week was 9.1 and average middle - latitude A index was 7.4.

Predicted solar flux over the next month is 75 on May 14 - 19; 70 on May 20 - 21; 72, 80, and 79 on May 22 - 24; 78, 77, and 73 on May 25 - 27; 72 on May 28 - 30; 70 on May 31 and June 1; 71 and 75 on June 2 - 3; 76 on June 4 - 5; 74 on June 6 - 7; 75 on June 8 - 9; 77 on June 10, and 79 on June 11 - 13.

The predicted solar flux[1] of 84 on June 15 in the 45-day forecast seems to be an outlier. It's odd that predicted solar flux would shift from 78 to 84 to 77, but we saw a similar prediction[2] recently for that same value a week into the future. Any trace of it here seems to have disappeared down the memory hole.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on May 14 - 16; 15, 12, 8, 5, and 8 on May 17 - 21; 5 on May 22 - June 5; 8, 5, and 8 on June 6 - 8, and 8, 5, 12, 18, and 15 and on June 9 - 13.

Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for May 14 - June 8 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH, of the Czech Propagation Interest Group, which has been compiling weekly geomagnetic activity forecasts since January 1978.

The geomagnetic field will be:


o quiet on: May 19, 25-26, (27-31)


o quiet to unsettled on: May 21, 24, 31, June 1-8


o quiet to active on: May (14-16, 18, 20-23)


o unsettled to active: May (17)


o active to disturbed: none


o Solar wind will intensify on: May (16,) 17-18, (21-25,) 28-30



Remarks:

- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

- Contradictory indications significantly reduce forecast accuracy.

Jon Jones, N0JK (EM28), wrote: "6-meter E skip to W6 on May 14 to Silicon Valley. Worked AH0U and N5KO, both in CM97. They are in the sporadic E 'doughnut' between single and double hop Es."

Ken Brown, N4SO, checks this graph of the EISN[3] - the estimated international sunspot number - a daily value obtained by a simple average over available sunspot counts from 85 world-wide observers in the SILSO network and, "compares it with propagation on 30 and 17 meters. Of interest are stations in China, Japan, Korea, and Asiatic Russia propagated at 6,000 miles plus." Also see the SIDC/SILSO International Sunspot Number[4].

Ken also reported that on May 11, the W1AW code practice bulletin on 17 meters were 40 dB over S-9. "So I called CQ QRP." He had the power set all the way down on his Elecraft K2, which is 100 mW. He heard or worked W3UA, KM3T, and at 3 W worked K7QO. On FT8 on 30 meters, he worked "a long string of Japanese stations" from 0745 until 1114 UTC - 26 stations in all. The strongest were JE0ART (-3 dB) and JA1IOA (+5 dB) over a roughly 7,000-mile path.

The Reverse Beacon Network (RBN) on 10 meters showed KC0VKN (Iowa) in QSO with K4SE (Tennessee) at 1043 UTC on May 11.

This article, "Using Sporadic E, Es Propagation for Amateur Radio" in Electronics Notes, was mentioned in The ARRL Contest Update[5] newsletter for May12. Then visit the propquest page[6] for an interesting online real-time sporadic-e tool.

Here are two recent reports [1[7]] [2[8]] from Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

Sunspot numbers for May 6 - 12 were 0, 15, 17, 18, 36, 31 and 31, with a mean of 21.1. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 70.8, 74.5, 71.6, 75.9, 76.5, 76.1, and 74.7, with a mean of 74.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 3, 3, 4, 6, 3, and 41, with a mean of 9.1. Middle latitude A index was 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 4, and 25, with a mean of 7.4.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[9] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[10] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[11] K9LA's Propagation Page.

A propagation bulletin archive[12] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[13] website.

Instructions[14] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[15] your reports and observations.�


[1] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/051345DF.txt
[2] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/
[3] http://www.sidc.be/silso/eisnplot
[4] https://ssa.sidc.be/prod/WEB/index.php?component=archive&amp;pc=S108&amp;psc=a
[5] http://www.arrl.org/the-arrl-contest-update
[6] http://www.propquest.co.uk/map.php
[7] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CjiAIMDXEFk
[8] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wTSG2Jqzntw
[9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[11] http://k9la.us/
[12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[13] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[14] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[15] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

05/21/2021

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Sunspot activity continues this week, although the average daily sunspot numbers and solar flux have not really changed since last week's report. This was not expected, because on the first day of the reporting week in last week's bulletin ARLP020, there was no sunspot activity.

Average daily sunspot number hardly changed, from 21.1 to 20.3, and average daily solar flux went from 74.3 to 74.2. I am surprised that solar flux still remains below 80, since April 20.

Geomagnetic indicators were quiet, but values were slightly lower. Average daily planetary A index changed from 9.1 to 6.6, and average daily middle latitude A index went from 7.4 to 6.3.

Predicted solar flux for the next 30 days is 72 on May 21 - 27; 73 on May 28; 75 on May 29 - 31; 77 on June 1; 78 on June 2 - 12; 73, 77, and 77 on June 13 - 15, and 75 on June 16 - 27.

Predicted planetary A index is 10 and 8 on May 21 - 22; 5 on May 23 �- �June 10, 8, 5, 10, and 8 on June 11 - 14; 5, 10, and 8 on June 15 - 17, and 5 on June 18 - 30 and beyond.

The Thursday (May 20) planetary A index rose dramatically due to increasing solar wind. The STEREO[1] website at has been a good indicator of approaching sunspot activity about to rotate over the sun's eastern horizon, and currently on early Friday I can see a bright active region about to become geo-effective.

Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast from J. K, Janda, OK1HH, for May 21 - June 15, 2021. The geomagnetic field will be:


o quiet on May 25-26, (27-31,) June 9-10, 12-13


o quiet to unsettled on May 24, June 1-8


o quiet to active on May (21-23, June 11, 14)


o unsettled to active (June 15)


o active to disturbed none


o Solar wind will intensify on May (21-25,) 28-30, June (7,) 9, (14-15)



Remarks:

- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

- Contradictory indications significantly reduce the accuracy of the forecast.

WB6VRN spotted a new location for the NOAA solar cycle progression page[2], and notes the site is interactive.

K1HTV reports:

"On 17 meters during the late afternoon on May 18, 2021, I completed WAC (Worked All Continents), using the FT8 mode, in 11 minutes. Around 3:15 AM EDT the next morning, after awaking from a restless sleep and while still horizontally polarized, I turned on my Android phone. I connected to my shack computer and its three video monitors using the VNC app.

"At that early hour (0715 UTC) here at my Virginia QTH, I found 17 meters was already open to Europe. I switched down to 30 meters FT8 and proceeded to work some DX. To my amazement, I was able to make FT8 contacts with all continents to complete WAC (Worked All Continents) in 6 minutes even! Below is the K1HTV log for those contacts, which may be a world record for WAC in the shortest time, at least for the FT8 mode.

OC - VK4PN - 2021-0519 07:25:00 started 1st QSO

EU - F2YT - 2021-0519 07:26:30 send 73 to end 2nd QSO

AF - EA8AT - 2021-0519 07:27:45 sent 73 to end 3rd QSO

AS - JH1CCN - 2021-0519 07:28:30 sent 73 to end 4th QSO

NA - CO8LY - 2021-0519 07:29:30 sent 73 to end 5th QSO

SA - CE3ALY - 2021-0919 07:31:00 sent 73 to end 6th QSO and complete WAC

"All QSOs were made while running 75 W to the 30 meter trap dipole of an A3WS antenna."

N4SO in Southern Alabama reports:

"I often listen to 28 MHz propagation beacons starting with 28.175 VE3TEN[3], ending at 28.300 MHz. I also have about ten 28 MHz beacons in the log from 0000 to 0100 UTC.

"From the HF Beacon Reflector and WJ5O for May 20 Evening "GREYLINE" my location. 0025-0030 UTC, 20 May 2021, I can hear/identify ten 10-meter beacon signals into EM71as.




28.2025



KA3BWP



STAFFORD, VIRGINIA



1074 km



667 miles




28.208



WN2A/AK2F



BUDD LAKE, NEW JERSEY



1424 km



885 miles




28.216



K3FX



NEPTUNE CITY, NEW JERSEY



1424 km



885 miles




28.2313



N3TVV



JIM THORPE, PENNSYLVANIA



1364 km



848 miles




28.2327



N2MH



WEST ORANGE, NEW JERSEY



1449 km



869 miles




28.236



W8YT



MARTINSBURG, WEST VIRGINIA



1112 km,



691 miles




28.246



KG2GL



NUTLEY, NEW JERSEY



1144 km



715 miles




28.269



AA1TT



CLAREMONT, NEW HAMPSHIRE



1763 km



1095 miles




28.2865



WB0BIN



SABIN, MINNESOTA



1900 km



1181 miles




28.296



W3APL



LAUREL, MARYLAND



1172 km



733 miles



Jeff Hartley, N8II, wrote:

"The sporadic E season has gotten off to a great start. Just in the past 2 days, there were the sporadic E 28-MHz openings into Europe! On the 18th, I saw a spot for F4DSD in France on 10 meter SSB. We worked, but just barely; after a struggle to copy my call, he gave me a 3 x 3 report at 2016 UTC. Hearing nothing else, I QSYed down to 15 CW and worked GW3TMP in Wales and EA8TL in Canary Islands. Then I managed to catch Hugh, EI2HI, in Ireland and we exchanged 4 x 2 reports.

"The morning of the 19th featured a fairly widespread but weak opening to EU on 10 meters.

"My first EU QSO was at 1410 UTC with ON7HJA in Belgium on SSB. Then I heard Gyuri, HA5JI, in Hungary who was the loudest of the opening, S-7 when we worked, then later near the end at 1433 UTC S5. Also worked F8DGY and Germany on CW. I finally got back to the radio at 2015 UTC and quickly found DK7LX in Germany on 10 CW who was S-7. As we finished, Ron, SP8ARY, was calling me; we moved up and made a QSO; he was my first 10-meter Polish QSO in my log started January 2017.

"Next I called a CW CQ once and was rewarded with a string of EU callers from Germany, England, Czech Rep., Serbia, France, Denmark (OZ4VW, first Danish op in my 10 meter log - new band slot), Netherlands and two more Poles including SQ1921PS. Many were rather weak. I then switched to SSB to find stronger signals as the opening improved. Ady, G6AD, in England was S-6 and Karel, ON2KP was S-8. 3Z1921PS in Poland was a new SSB band slot, as was 5P1B, Denmark 6 minutes later. Of course, I found Ian, MM0TFU in Scotland about S-7 who always seems to be there when 10 opens to North America. Calling CQ on SSB, I worked a long string of EU stations with few if any CQs needed to log the next station. The majority were in western EU, only one weak Italian. Additional SSB countries logged were France, Netherlands, Northern Ireland, Germany, and Austria. I made many QSOs with England. After 2128 UTC, I searched out stations and found Nick, LZ3ND, in Bulgaria who was peaking over S-9 - no wonder with his four stacked 7-element Yagis. Also worked LZ5DD. PI4DX also with stacked 6-element Yagis was S-9.

"My last SSB QSO before dinner at 2158 UTC was S52WW, Slovenia, for a new band slot. Returning at 2238 UTC, I found Tom, 9A2AJ, Croatia on CW (new slot), OA4DX, Peru on 12 CW for new slot, and Gordon, MM0GPZ who was S-7 - S-8 on 10 SSB, S-7 on 12 (my antenna only 2-element Yagi), and a solid S-9 on 15. Despite the great conditions on 15, there was very little SSB or CW activity. My last 10-meter QSO was EI7HBB, Ireland, on SSB at 2318 UTC - a very long opening. I made in total 64 10-meter QSOs with Europe."

Wow, Jeff!

Russ W4NI reports from Nashville:

"The solar storm on 12 May 2021 was not too bad. Despite K=7 at both 1200 and 1500 UTC, I was able to work DK, EA, LZ, 9A, on 20 CW from TN."

Sunspot numbers for May 13 - 19 were 24, 24, 24, 11, 11, 24 and 24, with a mean of 20.3. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 74.7, 70.9, 73.3, 73.2, 74.8, 76.4, and 75.9, with a mean of 74.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 4, 8, 5, 6, 10, and 6, with a mean of 6.6. Middle latitude A index was 7, 4, 8, 4, 6, 10, and 5, with a mean of 6.3.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[4] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[5] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[6] K9LA's Propagation Page.

A propagation bulletin archive[7] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[8] website.

Instructions[9] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[10] your reports and observations.�


[1] https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
[2] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
[3] http://www.oarc.net/photos/ve3ten/ve3ten.html
[4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[6] http://k9la.us/
[7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[8] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[9] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[10] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

05/28/2021

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: The 10.7-centimeter solar flux rose this week, and on Wednesday May 26 it reached 88, the highest it's been since December 7, 2020, when it was 89.5. The next day at 2300 UTC, the flux value was 94.2.

The official flux value is always the local noon reading at Canada's Dominion Radio Astrophysical Research Facility[1] in Penticton, British Columbia, 177 miles northeast of Seattle. Readings[2] are available three times a day.

Average daily solar flux rose this week to 77.8 from last week's average of 74.2, while the average daily sunspot number increased from 20.3 to 24.9. I hope this signals a return to the enhanced activity and HF conditions we saw at the end of 2020, and a resumption of Solar Cycle 25's upward climb.

Predicted solar flux over the next month is 83, 81, 80, and 76 on May 28-31; 72 on June 1-3; 73 on June 4; 74 on June 5-10; 75 on June 11; 77 on June 12-15; 79 on June 16-23, and 76 on June 24-29.

Predicted planetary A index is 10, 5, 8, 5, and 8 on May 28 - June 1, then 5 on June 2 and beyond, possibly into mid-July.

Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for May 28 - June 22 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

The geomagnetic field will be:


o quiet on: May (30 - 31), June 9 - 10, 12 - 13


o quiet to unsettled on: June 1 - 8, 17 - 20


o quiet to active on: May 28 - 29, June 11, 14 - 16, 21 - 22


o unsettled to active: nothing predicted


o active to disturbed: nothing predicted


o solar wind will intensify on: May 28 - 30, June (7), 9, (14 - 15, 17 - 19, 22)



Remarks:

�- The increased geomagnetic activity on May 26 - 27 was due to solar flares with CME on May 22. Therefore, it could not be predicted on May 20.

�- Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

�- Accuracy of the forecast remains lower.

Jon Jones, N0JK, in Kansas reports:

"The summer 2021 sporadic E season is off to a strong start. Here in Kansas I had Europe in on 6 meters May 19. DK1MAX peaked to -3 dB with audible tones at 1540 UTC. Earliest I have had Europe on 6-meter Es.

May 26 Hawaii to the Midwest on 6 meters. KF0M (EM17) in Wichita had KH6CJJ on Maui up to -4 dB around 2000 UTC. The Hawaiians were in for more than an hour. The mode was FT8."

Bil Paul, KD6JUI, in Dixon, California, writes:

"Quite a surprise for the solar flux to jump up into the 80s and then the 90s today (Thursday).

"I was trying out a modified small HF loop (homebrew) on my kayak in the Mokelumne River in Northern California today and wasn't getting out very well. Then I thought I'd give 17 SSB a final try before packing up my gear. Transmitter power was 12 W.

"Heard two VKs coming in loud and clear and managed to catch VK2CPC, Les, just as he finished a QSO. He gave me a 3 x 3 report and managed to get my call sign correct. Fortunately my kayak was in such a position that the loop was aimed toward Australia.

"And, my buddy caught two bass. Good day for both of us."

Michael May, WB8VLC in Oregon reports:

"Another weird week of non-ham activity on 10 meters to report along with lots of 6 meter activity. The most interesting thing heard on 10 meters was non ham intruders, heard this past Sunday. I was tuning around on 10 meters looking for beacons when I came across some North Korean fishing boats operating on 28.175 and 28.275 MHZ FM mode. This was at 2120 UTC on May 22, and the signals were in for the next 2 hours. The attached recording is condensed from over a 2-hour period [email K7RA for a 836 kB MP3 copy].

"A co-worker listened to the recording and said it sounded like a North Korean dialect and after more research we found that they are most likely squid fishing boats around the Asiatic Russian coast north of Japan and east of mainland Asiatic Russia, where these boats are typically found. The signals peaked on my 4-element, 10 meter OWA at 330�.

"I have not heard these signals in more than 9 years, which leads me to think that a 10 meter FM path to Japan is possible. Research on these boats indicates only 25 W of FM carrier with 102-inch whips.

"No real interesting 10-meter ham contacts to list as the North Korean fishing boats were certainly enough for my 10 meter listing.

"Six meters was my best band over the past 2 weeks for real ham to ham QSOs and here are some of the interesting ones. All of the 6 meter SSB contacts were well over S-9 both ways and the QSOs lasted for more than 45 minutes each, real rag chews.

"On 6 meters SSB/FT8/CW I use my K3S to a 6-element HyGain Yagi on the same boom as my four elements for 10 meters and 500 W from a home-made LDMOS amplifier.

"On 6 meter FM I use the HyGain V-6R stacked 5/8th wave, 25-foot-long co-linear vertical and 110 W with a GE Orion FM land mobile transceiver.

"Six meter contacts, all times/dates UTC:"




2021-05-18



0327



KH6HI



50.313



FT8 BL01xi




2021-05-19



0420



VE8CK



50.313



FT8 DP22TK




2021-05-22



0241



W5WTX



50.090



CW DM95cc




2021-05-23



1859



VE3WN



50.313



FT8 FN03ht




2021-05-24



0035



W0VTT



50.098



CW EN33xx




2021-05-24



0120



TI2ALF



50.313



FT8 EJ79xv




2021-05-26



0229



KG4HOT



50.180



SSB FM07pt




2021-05-26



0232



KD4AA



50.180



SSB FM17ur




2021-05-26



0243



WB7PMP



50.180



SSB EM95pu




2021-05-26



0335



�KA6NLS/r



51.940



FM DM35cd Kingman, AZ




2021-05-26



1525



VA3IKE



50.313



FT8 EN82qb



�

N1API reported last week:

"I suppose by now you have heard of the 6 meter opening on May 19. I was fortunate to work a total of 59 stations on FT8. The most amazing thing was that band was still open into Europe at 10 PM local, which would be 2 AM or later in Europe depending on how deep the opening was. Stations from the US were also seen. The next morning at daybreak had signals from Spain and Italy on 6 meters. I can't remember seeing conditions like this before."

N4SO reports:

"In the weird category, my signal was picked up on PSKreporter in Ukraine. The notation, a one and only, reads:

Rx at Monday, 17 May 2021 18:08 GMT

From N4SO BY UX0ZAB Loc KN66au15

Frequency 28.074.741 MHz (10m) FT8 -13DB

Distance 9552 kilometers, bearing 36�

The map location shows Ukraine. At that time, I was transmitting, both calling CQ, and working mostly US. UX0ZAB is a monitoring station, and we did not make a contact, other than his reception report of my signal."

Check this website for synoptic map images[3].

It has been a long time since we presented anything YouTube[4] | article[5] about the important work of astronomer Hisako Koyama.

Thanks to K5FB for this link: New Method Invented for Predicting Solar Radio Flux Two Years Ahead[6].

A new solar telescope[7] is planned for the Canary Islands.

Here's a new video[8] from Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, the Space Weather Woman.

Sunspot numbers for May 20 - 26 were 13, 13, 19, 30, 29, 36, and 34, with a mean of 24.9. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 72.3, 73.7, 75.6, 79, 72.7, 83.5, and 88, with a mean of 77.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 24, 7, 5, 4, 4, 3, and 13, with a mean of 8.6. Middle latitude A index was 17, 8, 5, 4, 2, 3, and 12, with a mean of 7.3.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[9] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[10] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[11] K9LA's Propagation Page.

A propagation bulletin archive[12] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[13] website.

Instructions[14] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[15] your reports and observations.�


[1] https://nrc.canada.ca/en/research-development/nrc-facilities/dominion-radio-astrophysical-observatory-research-facility
[2] https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php
[3] https://nso.edu/data/nisp-data/synoptic-maps/
[4] https://youtu.be/LxM9PhcY_90
[5] https://kottke.org/21/05/hisako-koyama-the-woman-who-stared-at-the-sun
[6] https://scitechdaily.com/new-method-invented-for-predicting-solar-radio-flux-two-years-ahead/
[7] https://www.explica.co/it-will-be-built-in-the-canary-islands-from-2023-and-will-make-it-possible-to-distinguish-sunspots-of-only-30-km.html
[8] https://youtu.be/qCtYMVjdMwM
[9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[11] http://k9la.us/
[12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[13] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[14] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[15] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

06/04/2021

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Solar Cycle 25 activity continues this week, with no spotless days since May 6. The average daily sunspot number rose modestly this week from 24.9 to 28 while the average daily solar flux held steady at 77.8.

Predicted solar flux over the next month is 75 on June 4 - 6; 72 on June 7 - 11; 76 on June 11; 78 on June 12 - 15; 80 on June 16 - 18; 78 on June 19 - 22; 76, 75, and 76 on June 23 - 25; 72 on June 26 - July 5, and 73, 75, and on July 6 - 8. Solar flux may rise to 80 on July 13 - 15.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on June 4 - 5; 5 on June 5 - 15; 20 and 10 on June 16 - 17; 5 on June 18 - 27; 8, 5, 8, and 8 on June 28 - July 1, and 5 on July 2 - 12.

Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for June 4 - 29 from J.K. Janda, OK1HH.

The geomagnetic field will be:


o quiet on June 10, 12 - 13, 24 - 27


o quiet to unsettled on June 5 - 6, 17 - 20, 28 - 29


o quiet to active on June 4, 7 - 9, 11, 14 - 15, 21 - 23


o unsettled to active June 16


o active to disturbed nothing predicted


o solar wind will intensify on June (7,) 9, (14 - 19, 22, 24, 29)



The increased geomagnetic activity on May 26 - 27 was caused by solar flares with a CME on May 22. Therefore, it could not be predicted in forecast issued on May 20.

Remarks:

-Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

-Accuracy of the forecast remains lower.

From the Madison DX Club, program for Tuesday, June 8:

"Modes of Propagation on 6 Meters" will be presented by propagation expert Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA. Carl will begin with a brief look at the atmosphere and the ionosphere. He will then cover atmospheric modes (including polar mesosphere summer echoes and the Hepburn tropo maps) and ionospheric modes (E and F2 regions and sporadic-E). G3YLA's and K1YOW's recent work with sporadic-E, and the eBook by K5ND on 6 meters will be discussed. Finally, references for more 6-meter info will be listed. Carl will be available to answer your questions.

Zoom host and Program Chairman, Kevin Shea, N9JKP, will be online from 5:45 CDT. Join[1] the Zoom meeting and program with the password 124658.

Oleh, KD7WPJ/UR5BCP, wrote to say that UX0ZAB, mentioned in last week's bulletin, is indeed a Ukraine call sign.

Ten-meter activity is starting to pick up. This website[2] promotes 10 meters.

Here[3] is an interesting article on solar cycle prediction.

Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, reports[4] the first radiation storm of Solar Cycle 25 in her latest YouTube presentation.

Sunspot numbers for May 27 - June 2 were 34, 28, 26, 27, 31, 20, and 30, with a mean of 28. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 83.3, 77.4, 76, 74.4, 81.7, 75.2, and 76.3, with a mean of 77.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 16, 3, 7, 6, 3, 3, and 5, with a mean of 6.1. Middle latitude A index was 15, 3, 7, 7, 4, 3, and 5, with a mean of 6.3.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[5] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[6] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[7] K9LA's Propagation Page.

A propagation bulletin archive[8] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[9] website.

Instructions[10] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[11] your reports and observations.


[1] https://us02web.zoom.us/j/83181396616?pwd=dUIrdWo3bE45T0xyUkZOS2xKdDBIZz09 [2] http://www.n6na.org/home/ten-meters
[3] https://bit.ly/3cfSL2V
[4] https://youtu.be/AfMDbesGWjA
[5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[7] http://k9la.us/
[8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[9] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[11] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

06/11/2021

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Sunspot activity has shown steady but modest increases over the past 3 weeks, with average daily sunspot weekly averages rising from 24.9 to 28 to 34.9. Oddly, average daily solar flux for the same 3 weeks was 77.8, 77.8, and 77.7, remarkably unchanged week after week.

Average daily planetary A index went from 6.1 last week to 5.9 in this week's report, and middle latitude A index went from 6.3 to 6.9.

Predicted solar flux over the next month is 75 on June 11 - 20; 80 on June 13 - 17; 75 then 80; 82 and 77 on June 21 - 23; 76 on June 24 - July 5; 74, 74, and 75 on July 6 - 8; 74 on July 9 - 14, and 75 on June 16 - 17.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on June 11 - 13; 8 on June 14 - 15; 20 and 18 on June 16 - 17; 5 on June 18 - 25; 7 on June 26; 5 on June 27 - July 4; 15, 10, and 8 on July 5 - 7; 5 on July 8 - 12; 20 and 8 on July 13 - 14, and 5 after mid-July.

Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for June 11 - July 7 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH, who has been compiling these reports since January 1978.

The geomagnetic field will be:


o quiet on June 12 - 13, 18 - 20, 24, 27 - 28, July 1 - 2


o quiet to unsettled on June 11, 15, 17, 29 - 30, July 6


o quiet to active on June 11, 14, 17, 21, 25 - 26, July 3 - 4


o unsettled to active June 16, 22 - 23, July 5


o active to disturbed - none


o solar wind will intensify on June (11 - 13,) 17 ( - 18,) (22 - 24, 29,) July (2,) 4 - 5



* Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

Checking the STEREO mission[1] every day we see more activity in store over the sun's eastern horizon. You will recognize it as intense white splotches

Watching 6 meters on pskreporter.info on June 10 at 0550 UTC, I noticed an odd late-night opening in western North America, showing many long-distance FT8 contacts. Some had positive signal reports, i.e., above the noise. This is notable because most reports on this website are negative (i.e., below the noise level), but one stood out. It was a 609-mile +5 dB report from K6VVP in San Francisco (CM87rs) to WA7DUH in Eastern Washington (DN06hg). Later I saw a 727-mile report from KA9UVY in Illinois (EM58mk) to N3OUC in Pennsylvania (FN20fm) at 0632 UTC with the signal at only -10 dB. Both reports showed the frequency as 50.314 MHz.

Of course, when FT8 signal reports are above zero, the same path should be viable for other modes, such as CW and SSB.

Michael May, WA8VLC/7 in Salem, Oregon wrote:

"It's been 2 weeks since an update, and, aside from some FT8, SSB, and CW DX and stateside on 6 meters - including Trinidad and Hawaii on 50.313 and some midwest and eastern US and Canada on 6 meters FT8, SSB, and CW mostly last week. Still the most interesting and weird things occurred on 10 meters - both ham and non-ham activity.

"On May 31 on 29.62 MHz FM, I found the KQ2H repeater in New York in for several hours, and I spent most of the day talking to several hams all over the eastern and southeastern US on this repeater, which never faded for the entire day.

"I actually took an hour break and went to 10 SSB and worked French Guiana, and when I came back, the 29.62 repeater was still 20 dB over S-9. This was simply the best 10 meter activity I have seen in years on FM.

"On June 9 at 0330 - 0355 UTC, another Salem ham, K6FIB, and I both heard several non-ham French-speaking stations coming through my 10-meter remote base on 29.6 FM, speaking to another much weaker non-ham station for 15 minutes.

"At this time I zeroed my four-element 10 meter Yagi to ~195�, which put them somewhere in the Eastern Pacific, but where?

"After some searching around on other 10 meter frequencies, I heard similar voices on 28.700 FM speaking a similar French dialect but this time two of them were readable. One appeared to be a base station that was much stronger, chatting with a much weaker, but readable, station.

"After listening to the 28.700 FM transmission for a half-hour, the strong station identified as 'Pape'ete radio' at 0355 UTC, and several minutes later they slowly faded out.

"This would put these transmissions in French Polynesia, but I found it interesting that no hams were on FM from that region on 10 meters.

"In the past 30 years, I have never heard a ham station from these locations on FM, so that was not surprising at all; however, there were South Pacific hams in ZL on 28.074 FT8 and 10 meter CW at the same time.

"These stations, aside from French speaking, sounded like standard FM Land Mobile stations you'd hear on VHF. But I am now discovering more of these odd non-ham signals between 26 and 39 MHz from non-US locations."

[Great investigative work, Michael! Readers may recall in ARLP022 Michael reported hearing North Korean squid fishermen on 10-meter FM. Quite a "catch." - K7RA]

"My recent logs, times in UTC:




2021-06-06



2011



KC7I/KH6



50.313



FT8



BL10




2021-06-06



1950



9Y4D



50.313



FT8



FK90gg




2021-06-03



0359



K7EME



50.155



SSB



DM42jh




2021-06-03



0358



K7ZYP



50.155



SSB



DM41KX




2021-06-03



0232



W7PMS



52.560



FM



DM34tn




2021-06-01



0207



WB7PMP



50.145



SSB



EM95pu




2021-06-01



0205



K9PPY



50.125



SSB



EN51xx




2021-06-01



0128



WS9V



50.092



CW



EM59DL




2021-06-01



0118



W3HKK



50.099



CW



EN80qe




2021-06-01



0108



K9PPY



50.095



CW



EN51xx




2021-06-01



0103



K9MRI



50.099



CW



EN70iu




2021-06-01



1708



WA8FGV



50.125



SSB



EN82ig




2021-06-01



1705



K1EAR



50.125



SSB



DN84lc




2021-05-31



0110



VE2XK



50.313



FT8



FN07pj




2021-05-31



0100



VE4VT



50.313



FT8



EN19kt



"10 meters on the KQ2H FM repeater, 29.62 in New York state and French Guiana on 10 SSB:




2021-05-31



1952



KR1COP



29.620



FM



FN21tr




2021-05-31



1952



W2GGI



29.620



FM



EL96wk




2021-05-31



1949



KD2VQR



29.620



FM



FN21ro




2021-05-31



1945



KD2SBO



29.620



FM



FN21TO




2021-05-31



1933



KK4ANE



29.620



FM



EL97RV




2021-05-31



1932



AA2EC



29.620



FM



FN32dg




2021-05-31



1915



FY5HB



28.441



SSB



GJ34WH



Jon Jones, N0JK reported from Kansas EM28 on Saturday, June 5: "Saw the east coast had a big Es opening to Europe all afternoon June 4. Nil out here.

"May 30 and 31 good here. On May 31 had JA8JEP (QN03) in at -14 dB 2238z 50.323 MHz FT8.

"June 5, XE2X spotted 9K2OD on 50.323 MHz FT8 at 1335z. That is remarkable.

"2021-06-05 13:35 XE2X (EL06VC) 50.323.0 FT8 9K2OD (LL49AI) 12,871 km multihop Sp-E FT8 -06 TNX LOUD"

Check out this video[2] of the huge antenna array built for the Soviet Union's former over the horizon HF radar, the so-called "Russian Woodpecker," a constant annoyance for HF operators a few decades ago. Quite impressive!

Website[3] for the Apache Point Observatory in Sunspot, New Mexico.

Here's the latest video[4] from the Space Weather Woman, Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

Sunspot numbers for June 3 - 9 were 28, 30, 30, 42, 53, 34, and 27, with a mean of 34.9. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 75.5, 77.1, 74.4, 77.4, 80.8, 79.9, and 78.6, with a mean of 77.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 5, 4, 5, 12, 5, and 4, with a mean of 5.9. Middle latitude A index was 8, 4, 4, 6, 15, 7, and 4, with a mean of 6.9.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[5] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[6] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[7] K9LA's Propagation Page.

A propagation bulletin archive[8] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[9] website.

Instructions[10] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[11] your reports and observations.�


[1] https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
[2] https://bit.ly/359URNG
[3] https://www.apo.nmsu.edu/
[4] https://youtu.be/1zpoInkZ_gE
[5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[7] http://k9la.us/
[8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[9] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[11] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

06/18/2021

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Solar activity was lower this week, with the average daily sunspot number declining from 34.9 last week to 13.9 this week. This average was affected by the single day with no sunspots, Saturday, June 12.

Average daily solar flux dropped from 77.7 to 75.2. The Penticton observatory in British Columbia (the source for the 10.7-centimeter solar flux) did not report a noon reading on Wednesday, June 16, so we averaged the morning (76.9 at 1700 UTC) and afternoon readings (77.1 at 2300 UTC) to come up with 77 as a reasonable approximation.

Normally, the local noon reading (2000 UTC) is the official number for the day. You can get the three daily readings directly from the Dominion Astrophysical Observatory[1].

On Thursday, the noon flux reading was 85, higher than it's been since May 26, when it was 88.

Predicted solar flux for the near term is 75 on June 18-20; 80 on June 21-25; 77 on June 26-28; 78 on June 29 - July 7; 79 on July 8-10; 77 on July 11-13; 76 on July 14-16; 78 on July 17; 80 on July 18-20; 78 on July 21, and 77 on July 22-25.

Predicted planetary A index is 12 on June 18; 5 on June 19-25; 7 on June 26; 5 on June 27 - July 4; 15, 10, and 8 on July 5-7; 5 on July 8; 8 on July 9-11; 10, 12, 20, and 12 on July 12-15; 5 on July 16-22, and 7 on July 23.

I am very excited about this forecast[2] for the new Solar Cycle 25, which we are now seeing only its early stages. Forbes Magazine reported this[3].

Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for June 18 - July 15, from J.K. Janda, OK1HH:

The geomagnetic field will be:


o quiet on June 20, 24, 27 - 28, July 1, 10, 15


o quiet to unsettled on June 18 - 19, July 11, 14


o quiet to active on June 21, 23, 25 - 26, 29 - 30, July 2, 6 - 9


o unsettled to active (June 22, July 3 - 5, 12 - 13)


o active to disturbed - nothing!


o Solar wind will intensify on June (18 - 19,) 21, (22 - 24, 29,) 30, July (2,) 3, 5, 10 - 11



Remarks: Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH, of the Czech Propagation Interest Group, has been compiling this weekly geomagnetic activity forecast since January 1978.

Jeff, N8II, wrote: "On June 4 - 5, there was a very good 10 meter sporadic E opening to Europe, which started well before I did at 2200 UTC. Ian, MM0TFU, was the first one in the log on 10 SSB with 5/8 reports both ways. Andy, LZ2HM, was next on CW with a good signal; no other EU stations within 1000 kilometers were worked. Most all of my QSOs were with the UK and Ireland; I worked all four major UK DXCC entities. EI6JK and EI3EIB were both loud after 2400 UTC; last QSO was 0022 UTC with a total of about 20 EU contacts. Signal levels were very good from most stations.

"On June 11, 10 meters was open on Es to somewhere for most of the day. At 1900 UTC stations from Florida and the Gulf Coast were loud, including K4D on Dog Island IOTA NA-085 in the Big Bend area of the Gulf. Around 2000 UTC, I worked Missouri, Nebraska, and Michigan. Then at 2200 UTC 3 very loud VE3 stations from north-central Ontario. AC2CZ/VE2 in Montreal running 12 W into a dipole was next. Starting 2347 UTC I worked Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, and Illinois before two double-hop Es contacts after 2400 UTC with N7WWH near the coast of north Oregon, and KM6YSS in Canyon County, Idaho. At 0027 UTC, XE1XR in central Mexico was S-9+ and easily worked, followed by Luis, XE2B, at 0036 UTC. All contacts were on SSB.

"The ARRL June VHF Contest took place June 12 - 14, which found some sporadic E most of the time. On 6 meters SSB and CW, I made 130 QSOs with my poor-performing Yagi. The Es started around 2230 UTC with stations in Tennessee, Texas, and northern Florida. Sunday morning, Es started with W0WP in Iowa (EN42) and spread to other WOs, followed by an intense opening to the south and southwest, with my closest contact being with Ed, K3DNE, in EM94 SC. Many Georgia stations were very loud, as were many in Florida and some in Texas and Oklahoma. I also caught Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. At 1546 UTC, I found EA8BPX in the Canary Islands (IL18) and was able to get through. In the afternoon many local stations on FT8 were working EU stations mostly in Spain, France, and Portugal. I worked F4ARU in France at 1834 UTC on SSB. Late around 0100 UTC, the band was still open well to EM19 (NQ0P as loud as a nearby local), EM49, and EM18.

"Today, June 17, there was an opening to Spain on 10 meters at 1950 UTC to EA7HZ and EA3AR. My noise level was very high. MM0TFU was reporting hearing beacons near my location and farther up the east coast at 2200 - 2300 UTC. At 0012 UTC on the June 18, I worked VP9KD in Bermuda who was S-9+ for a new band slot on 10 meters SSB."

Sunspot numbers for June 10 - 16 were 29, 13, 0, 22, 11, 11, and 11, with a mean of 13.9. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 73.3, 77.3, 77.6, 68.9, 76.8, 75.5, and 77, with a mean of 75.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 10, 10, 7, 4, 17, and 14, with a mean of 9.6. Middle latitude A index was 5, 11, 8, 7, 7, 15, and 15, with a mean of 9.7.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[4] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[5] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[6] K9LA's Propagation Page.

A propagation bulletin archive[7] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[8] website.

Instructions[9] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[10] your reports and observations.�


[1] https://bit.ly/35u12fU
[2] https://bit.ly/2U7xt17
[3] https://bit.ly/2UbEG0m
[4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[6] http://k9la.us/
[7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[8] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[9] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[10] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

06/25/2021

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Average daily sunspot number was 14 this reporting week (June 17 - 23), essentially unchanged from last week's 13.9. Average daily solar flux increased from 75.2 to 79.3.

Geomagnetic indicators were quieter. Average planetary A index declined from 9.6 to 5.3, and average middle latitude A index dropped from 9.7 to 6.1.

Predicted solar flux is 82 on June 25 - July 1; then 80 and 78 on July 2 - 3; 75 on July 4 - 7; 78 on July 8 - 11; 75 on July 12 - 16; 78 on July 17 - 22; 75 on July 23 - 25, and 78 on July 26 - 30.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on June 25 - July 3; 12 on July 4; 5 on July 5 - 8; 8 on July 9 - 10; 5, 15, and 12 on July 11 - 13; 5 on July 14 - 20; 8 on July 21, and 5 on July 22 - 30.

Sunspot Group 2833 is about to rotate over our sun's western horizon, but I see promising activity around and beyond the eastern horizon when viewing the STEREO mission images[1]. Also check the Solar Monitor[2] site to see this emerging activity.

Note that the 2300 UTC June 22 solar flux reading[3] from the Dominion Astrophysical Observatory in Canada jumped way up to 104.5. The official solar flux for that day was the noon reading, 80.8 at 2000 UTC.

Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for June 25 - July 22 from J.K. Janda, OK1HH.

The geomagnetic field will be:


o quiet on June 27 - 28, July 1, 11, 16 - 17,


o quiet to unsettled on June 25 - 26, July 6, 10, 14 - 15, 18 - 22


o quiet to active on June 29 - 30, July 2 - 3, 7, 9


o unsettled to active July 4 - 5, (8,) 12 ( - 13)


o active to disturbed nothing foreseen


o Solar wind will intensify on June (29,) 30, July (2,) 3 - 5, (9,) 10 - 12, (13 - 15, 18 - 20)



Note: Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

Steve Gregory, VK3OT, sent details of a remarkable 6 meter opening on June 23 from Ukraine to Australia. He posted an image on his QRZ.com page[4]. Steve sent info on other openings from UB7K in Crimea, all reports were using FT8.

KA3JAW looks for sporadic-e propagation on the FM broadcast band:

"Kyle Whitley from Moses Lake, Washington [DN07hc], received audio with RDS on an over-the-air broadcast from Spirit FM[5], WBVM, 90.5, Tampa, Florida, via double-hop sporadic-e on June 17 at 0135 UTC (1835 PDT). That is 2,377 miles. He is the only Washington State FM-DXer that I am aware of who nailed Florida. During the event, he was hearing and locking onto RDS from multiple Kansas stations via single-hop Es.

The odd part is that he only heard that one station (WBVM) along that line-of-bearing toward Kansas, then dropping into Florida. He used a portable SPARC SHD-TX2[6]. WBVM runs 100 kW with an antenna at 850 feet AGL. Check this YouTube video (at around 2:40).

The US Postal Service has new postage stamps with solar images[7].

Here's the latest video[8] from Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, the Space Weather Woman.

Sunspot numbers for June 17 - 23 were 12, 24, 15, 13, 11, 12, and 11, with a mean of 14. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 85, 77, 77.1, 76.4, 79.1, 80.8, and 79.7, with a mean of 79.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 7, 4, 4, 4, 7, and 4, with a mean of 5.3. Middle latitude A index was 9, 8, 5, 4, 3, 8, and 6, with a mean of 6.1.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[9] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[10] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out this propagation page[11].

A propagation bulletin archive[12] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[13] website.

Instructions[14] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[15] your reports and observations.�


[1] https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
[2] https://www.solarmonitor.org/
[3] https://bit.ly/3jcOl1e
[4] https://www.qrz.com/db/vk3ot
[5] http://www.myspiritfm.com/
[6] https://sparcradiowp.wpengine.com/product/sparc-shd-tx2/
[7] https://store.usps.com/store/product/buy-stamps/sun-science-S_480804
[8] https://youtu.be/ONsPsT2du_o
[9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[11] http://k9la.us/
[12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[13] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[14] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[15] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

07/02/2021

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Solar activity is strong! For the June 24 - July 1 reporting week, the average daily sunspot number rose from 14 to 34.7, while the average daily solar flux bumped up from 79.3 to 86.9. Both figures represent a dramatic increase in solar activity. The sunspot number last Thursday, June 24, was 56 - above the average of 34.7 and always a good sign.

The planetary A index went from 5.3 to 6.1 over the reporting week, while the average daily middle latitude A index was steady at 6.1.

The predicted solar flux is 94 on July 2 - 6; 90 on July 7 - 8; 85 on July 9 - 11; 82 on July 12 - 14; 80 on July 15 - 18; 82 on July 19; 85 on July 20 - 24; 88 on July 25; 90 on July 26 - 28; 92 on July 29 - August 1; 90 on August 2, and 85 on August 3 - 7.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 12, 8, 10, and 8 on July 2 - 6; 5 on July 7 - 8; 8 on July 9 - 10; 5, 15, and 12 on July 11 - 13; 5 on July 14 - 20; 8 on July 21; 5 on July 22 - 26; 10 on July 27; 5 on July 28 - 30; 12 on July 31; 5 on August 1 - 4; 8 on August 5 - 6, and 5, 15, and 12 on August 7 - 9.

Here is the geomagnetic activity forecast for July 2 - 29 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

The geomagnetic field will be:


o quiet on July 16 - 17, 24 - 25


o quiet to unsettled on July 2 - 3, 6 - 7, 9 - 11, 18, 23, 29


o quiet to active on July 4 - 5, 12, 14 - 15, (19 - 22), 26


o unsettled to active July (8), 13, 27 - 28


o active to disturbed nothing forecast


o Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.



Jon Jones, N0JK, reports from Kansas (EM28):

"A sporadic-E opening to Europe on 50 MHz on July 1 to the Heartland (Midwest US) on the afternoon of July 1.

"I decoded many Europeans. F6EXV in with a good signal, but difficult getting takers. Finally worked G4PLZ at 1933 UTC. He was my only PSK flag in Europe.

"Even area ops who run kilowatts and big Yagis were having trouble raising Europe, but saw one work F6EXV and possibly EI4DQ. K0TPP (EM48) to the east was having better luck with Europe.

"Here in northeast Kansas, I decoded EA, EI, F, G, and PA2M. EI3KD, EI4DQ had good signals."

K4ZOT reported on June 28 from EM73 near Atlanta:

"I thought you might be interested in this 6-meter DX, which totally caught me by surprise today.

"I have been a 6-meter enthusiast since I received my license in 1964, when I operated a Layette HA-460 10 W 6-meter transceiver. In all this time I have never worked or heard an African station on 6. I have worked JA several times and other Pacific locations, but never Africa. Much to my total surprise today, June 28, at 1926 UTC, 5T5PA (Mauritania) suddenly popped on the FT8 JTALert Callsigns screen with an audio alert of new DX. Again, to my utter amazement, I worked him on the first call, a distance of 4,241 miles. Not the longest 6-meter DX by far but surprising, at least from this location. I believe he worked one or two other stations, and then he was gone - perhaps only on for 2 or 3 minutes. A wonderful 6-meter DX contact from my station using a five-element Yagi at only 32 feet.

"Six is indeed the 'Magic Band,' as it has been for me for 55 years of operation. Best of all, Johannes confirmed the contact in LoTW just a few minutes after we made contact. Thank you, Johannes, a true ham in the best spirit of the hobby."

KA3JAW reported:

"On Thursday, July 1, at 10:15 AM EDT (1415 UTC), FM DXer Bryce Foster in Mashpee, Massachusetts, received 87.7 RTP Antena-3 Pico da Barrosa, Azores, via two-way Es. The station runs 30 kW vertical polarization. Distance 2,379 air miles. Reception lasted up to 35 minutes with audio identification along with a stream match. This is the first time I heard of a US to Azores link on the FM broadcast band."

W9NY reported on June 28:

"The propagation on 20 meters between my Dune Acres, Indiana, station and much of Europe and Asiatic Russia beginning last night at 11 PM and continuing for about 2 hours was absolutely amazing. It reminded me of 10 meters at the peak of prior sunspot cycles.

"Around 14.208 I called CQ and worked one station after another, from Finland in the North to Corsica and Greece in the South and all across Russia to several points in Siberia. Many of the signal reports given and received were 20 to 30 dB over S-9. A couple 'nearly pinned' the needle on my Icom IC-7610. In fact, I worked many stations running 100 W to simple antennas like a dipole or vertical that were coming in over S-9 and a few stations that were QRP but still producing S-5 to S-7 signals. I have not heard an opening like that in many years, and it was certainly a lot of fun. I probably should have turned on my QRP rig, but I never got around to it.

"Perhaps a harbinger of things to come.

"I did check out 17, 15, 12, 10, and 6, which were all quiet.

"And today there was a fair amount of activity on 10 meters and 6 meters."

Frank, W3LPL, wrote:

"Propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. There is a slight possibility that isolated below-normal intervals may briefly degrade propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions from midday Saturday through early Sunday.

"We are in the quiet geomagnetic activity season; only about half as many geomagnetically disturbed days occur in June and July compared to the more geomagnetically active equinox seasons.

"Sporadic-E propagation occurs every day during June and July at mid-latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere making long-distance propagation up to 15,000 kilometers (9,300 miles) sporadically available in the 17, 15, 12, 10 and 6 meter bands from sunrise through midnight and occasionally somewhat later.

"The solar flux is likely to be at least 94 through Sunday. Solar active region 2835 has grown to 770 micro-hemispheres (2.3 billion square kilometers, four times the surface area of the Earth), almost as large as the active region that significantly improved HF propagation during late November 2020. Region 2835 is significantly improving HF propagation on 30 and 20 meters during late afternoon, at night, and during the early morning hours, and 17- and 15-meter propagation during the day through early evening. Active regions 2836 and 2837 are slowly and quietly decaying and are having no effect on HF propagation. See this Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) image[1] from July 2 @ 1346 UTC.

"160- and 80-meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be seasonably normal through Sunday.

"40-meter short-path propagation to south Asia is likely to be mostly normal at about 0015 UTC through Sunday. 40-meter short path propagation from North America to East Asia after about 0930 UTC is likely to be mostly normal with a slight possibility of isolated below-normal intervals on Saturday.

"30-meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal, with a slight possibility of isolated below-normal intervals late Saturday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly degraded within a few hours of local noon due to E-region blanketing of long-distance F2 propagation.

"30-meter nighttime, long-distance propagation in the Northern Hemisphere is likely to improve due to increased ionizing solar radiation in the northern high-latitude regions caused by increased sunspot activity, higher solar elevation angles, and much shorter nights with no source of ionizing solar radiation.

"20-meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a slight possibility of isolated below-normal intervals late Saturday.

"20-meter northern transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is improving with increased solar ionizing radiation on the northern polar region caused by increased sunspot activity and high solar elevation angles 24 hours per day during the midnight sun season. 20 meter long distance propagation is significantly degraded from mid-morning through late afternoon at low and mid-latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere by F1 region midday blanketing of low-angle propagation during the summer.

"20-meter late afternoon, nighttime and early morning long distance propagation in the Northern Hemisphere is likely to improve, due to increased ionizing solar radiation in the northern high-latitude regions, caused by increasing sunspot activity, higher solar elevation angles, and much shorter nights with no source of ionizing solar radiation.

"17- and 15-meter daytime long-distance propagation in the Northern Hemisphere is likely to improve due to increased ionizing solar radiation in the northern high-latitude regions caused by increasing sunspot activity, high solar elevation angles, and long days.

"17-, 15-, 12-, 10-, and 6-meter sporadic-E propagation up to 15,000 km (9,300 miles) is likely to be sporadically available from sunrise through midnight and occasionally later through late July.

"Geomagnetic disturbances caused by coronal hole high-speed stream effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor, and somewhat less frequent at least through late 2021. The southward-oriented (-Bz) component of the IMF plays a crucial, but unpredictable, role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with enhanced IMF field strength for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth-directed coronal hole high-speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor-to-severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with enhanced IMF field strength for several hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth-directed fast CME.

"There is a slight possibility that Earth-directed effects of a weak CME and continuing weak coronal hole high-speed stream effects may slightly to moderately enhance IMF field strength, solar wind speed near Earth, and geomagnetic activity. If the weak CME is geo-effective, it may slightly degrade HF propagation through the auroral ovals from midday Saturday through early Sunday. Geomagnetic storms are not likely through Sunday. There is a slight possibility of an M-class solar flare from Friday through Sunday, but its possible effects on HF propagation are likely to be brief and minor.

"Mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere sunset is now 77 minutes later and day length is 163 minutes longer than it was on March 20. Day length and solar elevation angle in the northern polar region are slowly declining through mid-July, due to gradually waning summer solstice effects."

Sunspot numbers for June 24 - 30 were 11, 25, 16, 32, 50, 56, and 53, with a mean of 34.7. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 80.6, 83.4, 82.4, 87, 88.6, 92.5, and 94.1, with a mean of 86.9.. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 7, 4, 4, 4, 5, and 14, with a mean of 6.1. Middle latitude A index was 6, 8, 5, 4, 4, 5, and 11, with a mean of 6.1.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[2] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[3] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out this propagation page[4].

A propagation bulletin archive[5] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[6] website.

Instructions[7] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[8] your reports and observations.�


[1] https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg
[2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[4] http://k9la.us/
[5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[6] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[7] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[8] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

07/09/2021

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Solar activity continues to increase. In last week's bulletin ARLP027 average daily sunspot number was 34.7. This week it jumped to 55.6. Average daily solar flux increased from 86.9 to 88.9.

Despite solar flare activity pushing a sudden ionospheric disturbance and a dramatic HF radio blackout (on July 3), the average daily planetary A index for the week was only 5.7, down from 6.1 last week. The average middle latitude A index was also 6.1 last week, and it was 6.3 this week.

The July 3 flare was an X1.5-class event, the biggest since September 2017 and the only X-Class solar flare since then. It got readers wondering what was up.

Scott Craig, WA4TTK, wrote, "What happened about 1430 UTC on July 3? Some people on a forum are saying it was a massive solar flare. I was on 20 meter FT8 and my waterfall display went from solid red signals to solid nothing in the blink of an eye. It lasted about 10 minutes."

Events such as this can be so dramatic that many may assume a hardware or antenna failure. Fortunately, these are rare.

W3LPL developed an excellent narrative on this event. See "First X-Class Major Solar Flare of Solar Cycle 25 Blacks Out HF on July 3[1]."

The event received some coverage outside the usual channels, including Market Research Telecast (MRT[2]), IFLScience[3], and CNN[4].

Also, Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, our Space Weather Woman covered this[5] in her July 6 edition of "Space Weather News." Love her enthusiasm, as well as her solid science reporting.

Predicted solar flux is 73 on July 9 - 13; 72 on July 12 - 13; 72 on July 14 - 15; 76 on July 16; 82 on July 17 - 18; 84 on July 19; 88 on July 20 - 22; 90 on July 23 - 28; 88 on July 29 - August 2; 84 on August 3; 82 on August 4 - 5; 80 on August 6 - 11, and 82 on August 12 - 14.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on July 9 - 10; 8, 12, 16, 12, and 8 on July 11 - 15; 5 on July 16 - 17; 15, 12, and 10 on July 18 - 20; 5 on July 21 - 31; 10 and 8 on August 1 - 2; 5 on August 3 - 5, 15 and 12 on August 6 - 7, and 5 on August 8 - 13.

Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for July 9 - August 5 from Frantisek K. Janda, OK1HH, of the Czech Propagation Interest Group. He has been compiling this geomagnetic activity weekly forecast since January 1978.

The geomagnetic field will be:


o quiet on July 14, 16-18, 21, 23-25, 28, 30-31, August 3-5


o quiet to unsettled on July 9-10, 15, 22, 29, August 1-2


o quiet to active on July 11, 13, 19-20, 26-27


o unsettled to active July 12


o active to disturbed none predicted



Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."

Bob McHenry, G3NSM wrote:

"On July 5, I was amazed to work KL7HBK at 1447 UTC on 50.323 MHz FT8. John is in Anchor Point, BO49, which is just south of Anchorage and I was beaming on the short path, 345�. It wasn't a marginal contact. John was in for 10 minutes and gave me a report of +05, which suggests he might have heard me on CW. I believe John also worked into [Europe] on the same day. He confirmed the contact with me on LoTW the next day.

"Contacts between Alaska and Europe on 6 meters are very rare, and John was the only signal coming through from that region. There were no W6, W7, or VE7 stations audible as there had been on the previous day."

Thanks, Bob. I will check for any reports from July 4.

Jeff Hartley, N8II, in West Virginia wrote:

"Between increased SFI and plentiful sporadic E it was a fun week on the bands.

"The RAC Canada Day contest July 1 started with a good evening opening on 40 to all nearby areas of Canada. I worked about 65 stations in Ontario and Quebec, mostly on SSB. Sunday morning around 1400 - 1845 UTC, there was very intense sporadic E into all provinces from Ontario east to Newfoundland on all bands, including 10 meters. Normally Ontario is skipping over me on 20. I worked nine provinces on 15 CW, 10 on SSB, 8 on 10 CW, 9 on SSB! Even Labrador was worked on 15 SSB. The highlight was a run of five British Columbia stations on 10 meters CW at 1700. VE1 - VE9 except VE8 and VY2 Prince Edward Island were all logged on 10 SSB.

"On July 2 starting 1340 UTC, I worked three English stations and PA1CC in the Netherlands on 10-meter Es. TM13COL, a special French call sign for the 13 Colonies on the Air event, was worked on 12 CW with a strong signal. Then, at 1455 UTC, amid many New England QSOs on 10, I worked two Italian stations and MM0TFU in Scotland. At 1533UTC I found LY4A Lithuania (new band slot) on 10 SSB and Germany.

"17M was open late at 2340 UTC to Poland and S9 EI3GIB in Ireland on the July 3. On the July 4 at 2048 UTC, HB90BERO in Switzerland was S-9 on 15 SSB. I heard two Lebanese stations as well, with OD5ZZ peaking S-6, but no QSOs. At 2017, SO1WS Western Sahara was logged on 17 SSB, followed by V73NS in the Marshall Islands on 17 CW who was working Denmark and Portugal over the North Pole. At 2200 UTC, 17 was still wide open working Switzerland, Russia, Slovenia, the Dominican Republic, and England. G3YPZ moved up to 15 where he was S-5 on SSB followed by S-9+ IK4GRO in Italy. On the July 5 at 2212 on 15 CW KH0W in the Mariana Islands was weak over a tough path from here, and CT3MD Madeira was S-9+. On the July 6 at 1750 UTC, SP9FMP was marginally worked on 10 CW. ZA1E in Albania was a weak Q5, and stations very close to him in Europe were heard working him for about 15 minutes."

The ARRL Contest Update reported, on July 7:

"Six meters has been exciting over the last week or so, with reports of excellent intercontinental propagation. US hams have been enjoying many contacts with Asia and the EU. Craig, K9CT, worked a few new ones on July 2: 'Six meters was amazing today! DXCC total for 6 went from 128 to 141!' The Pacific Northwest has even been getting in on some of the action, with some stations reporting new countries worked on 6 even with antennas like 'a 20 meter dipole with an antenna tuner.' You can't work them if you don't try!"

Sunspot numbers for July 1 - 7 were 56, 72, 81, 60, 43, 52, and 25, with a mean of 55.6. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 94.1, 94.9, 93.7, 91.1, 89.4, 83.2, and 76, with a mean of 88.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 5, 4, 3, 7, 8, and 6, with a mean of 5.7. Middle latitude A index was 7, 6, 4, 4, 9, 8, and 6, with a mean of 6.3.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[6] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[7] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out this propagation page[8].

A propagation bulletin archive[9] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[10] website.

Instructions[11] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[12] your reports and observations.


[1] http://www.arrl.org/news/first-x-class-major-solar-flare-of-solar-cycle-25-blacks-out-hf-on-july-3
[2] https://marketresearchtelecast.com/first-solar-x-class-flare-since-2017-caused-gps-and-radio-interference/95147/
[3] https://bit.ly/3kcLSV5
[4] https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/07/world/solar-flare-cycle-25-scn/index.html [5] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GSQFrVqONZI
[6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[8] http://k9la.us/
[9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[10] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[11] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[12] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

07/16/2021

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Solar activity declined this week - by a lot. Six and two meters yielded exceptional openings, however. The average daily sunspot number plummeted from 55.6 to 21.3, and the average daily solar flux slid from 88.9 to 72.9.

Geomagnetic indicators remained about the same, with average daily planetary A index at 6.6, although the daily value increased to 14 on July 14, due to increasing solar wind.

Predicted solar flux is 74 on July 16; 76 on July 17; 74 on July 18 - 20; 76 on July 21 - 22; 78 on July 23; 79 on July 24 - 28; 77 on July 29 - August 1; 75 on August 2; 74 on August 3 - 9; 73 on August 10 - 11; 75 on August 12 - 15; 79 and 81 on August 16 - 17, and 79 on August 18 - 24.

Predicted planetary A index is 10 on July 16; 5 on July 17 - 20; 8 on July 21 - 22; 5 on July 23 - August 1; 8 on August 2; 5 on August 3 - 7; 12, 16, and 12 on August 8 - 10; 8 on August 11 - 12, and 5 on August 13 - 28.

Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for July 16 - August 12 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH. The geomagnetic field will be:


o quiet on July 16-18, 25, 30, August 4, 7, 12�


o quiet to unsettled on July 20, 23-24, 28-29, August 2, 9�


o quiet to active on July 19, 21-22, 31, August 1, 6, 11�


o unsettled to active July 26-27, August 3, 5, 8, 10�


o active to disturbed none



Notes:

=Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

=The previous prediction of increased geomagnetic field activity for July 12 was correct, but the solar wind from the equatorial coronal hole apparently traveled a longer path by lower speed than expected. That's why it didn't arrive until July 14.

Frank Donovan, W3LPL, reports:

Propagation crossing low- and mid-latitudes, the auroral ovals, and polar regions is likely to be normal through Sunday, July 18.

We are in the quiet geomagnetic activity season; only about half as many geomagnetically disturbed days occur in June and July, as compared to the more geomagnetically active equinox seasons.

Sporadic-E propagation occurs every day during June and July at mid-latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, making long-distance propagation up to 15,000 km (9,300 miles) sporadically available on 17, 15, 12, 10, and 6 meters from sunrise through midnight and occasionally somewhat later.

The solar flux index (SFI) is likely to be 75 or less through Sunday. There are two small active regions on the solar visible disk[1] with one small sunspot and one tiny sunspot.

160- and 80-meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the south Pacific is likely to be seasonably normal through Sunday.

40-meter short-path propagation to south Asia at about 0015 UTC is likely to be normal through Sunday.

40-meter short-path propagation from North America to east Asia after about 0930 UTC is likely to be normal through Sunday.

30-meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to normal through Sunday. 30 meter propagation always significantly degraded within a few hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of long-distance F2 propagation.

30-meter nighttime long-distance propagation in the Northern Hemisphere is likely to improve, due to increased ionizing solar radiation in the northern high latitude regions caused by higher solar elevation angles and short nights with no source of ionizing solar radiation.

20-meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Sunday. 20 meter northern transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is improving, with longer-duration solar ionizing radiation on the northern polar region caused by high solar elevation angles 24 hours per day during the midnight sun season.

20 meter long-distance propagation is significantly degraded from mid-morning through late afternoon at low and mid-latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere by F1 region midday blanketing of low-angle, long-distance propagation during the summer.

20-meter late afternoon, nighttime, and early morning long-distance propagation in the Northern Hemisphere is likely to improve due to increased ionizing solar radiation in the northern high-latitude regions caused by higher solar elevation angles and short nights with no source of ionizing solar radiation.

17- and 15-meter daytime long-distance propagation in the Northern Hemisphere is likely to improve due to increased ionizing solar radiation in the northern high-latitude regions caused by high solar elevation angles and long days. Sporadic-E propagation up to 15,000 kilometers (9,300 miles) on 17, 15, 12, 10 and 6 meters is likely to be sporadically available from sunrise through midnight and occasionally later through late July.

Geomagnetic disturbances caused by coronal hole high-speed stream effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less frequent at least through late 2021. The southward oriented (-Bz) component of the IMF plays a crucial, but unpredictable, role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with enhanced IMF field strength for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth-directed coronal hole high-speed stream. More frequent, longer-duration minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with enhanced IMF field strength for several hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth-directed fast CME.

The solar wind is expected to be at background state through Sunday. The geomagnetic field is likely to be mostly quiet through Sunday. Coronal hole high-speed stream and CME effects, geomagnetic storms and solar flares are not likely through Sunday.

Mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere sunset is now 5 minutes earlier and daylength is 19 minutes shorter than it was on June 21. Daylength and solar elevation angle in the northern polar region are slowly declining due to gradually waning summer solstice effects.

James O'Brien, W4AMP, in Dallas, Georgia, reports:

"A fantastic F2 opening on 6 meters was heard most of the morning of July 14 here in EM73nv. Worked EA7L, F4ARU, EB1A, F4GGQ, and I2PJA on SSB. Signals were strong with QSB.

Looking forward to more."

Jon, N0JK, in Lawrence, Kansas, wrote:

"Another spot for WP4G on 2 meters (maybe Es) July 15, at 2319."

Dick, KK2KA, reports more 6-meter excitement:

"The opening on July 14 from 0930 until 1900 UTC here in Massachusetts yielded seven new DXCC entities, including Hawaii. Now 49 of 50 for 6 meters WAS. I worked OD, 9K, YL, 4X, 5B, SV5. Now at 114 worked and 110 confirmed. This opening was the best I have ever seen. EU all day long [and] so many decodes in FT8 you had to scroll. FT8 on 313 and 323. Signals were strong and stable, not much QSB, which made it easier to work. This day goes down in the books as the best ever opening on the Magic Band."

Rich, K1HTV, reports:

July 13, 2-meter FT8 operators from the Mid-Atlantic, the Carolinas, Georgia, Alabama, and Florida (and some in the midwest) experienced an extraordinary day.

As I was driving home from shopping, my son Andy, K1RA, came on the local 2-meter repeater to notify me that stations in the Philly area were working into Puerto Rico on 144.174 FT8. When I arrived home I swung the beam toward the Caribbean and started working 2-meter Es. Here is a partial FT8 log from K1HTV (FM18ap) log for July 13, 2021.




1518



NP4B



FK68lm



1,534 miles (2,469 km)




1528



WP4KJJ



FK68xf



1,579 miles (2,541 km)




1604



W4AS



EL95to



910 miles (1,460 km)




1606



ZF1EJ



EK99jg



1,349 miles (2,171 km)



�

I thought that I did well until I started seeing spots from KA9CFD in EN40om working NP4BM in FK68lm, 2,070 miles (3,330 kilometers); WP4KJJ in FK68xf, 2,127 miles (3,423 kilometers); HI3T in FK58ak, 1,961 miles (3,156 kilometers), and HI8DL in FK58al, 1,959 miles (3,153 kilometers). And then I saw Jon's (N0JK) even longer distance DX Cluster spots for WP4KJJ and WP4G. Extraordinary!

It sure looks like it took two separate, well placed highly ionized patches for this to happen, and a PSK Reporter Es MUF map shows the locations of the two. One was at EM64 and the other patch was at FL06.

The 2-meter Es opening that I observed from FM18ap in Virginia to Puerto Rico went from 1518 - 1558 UTC and then again, briefly from 1630 - 1633 UTC.

The opening to W4AS in EL95 at 1605 UTC only lasted 2 minutes and then was gone.

The opening from FM18ap to ZF1EJ in EK99 started at 1606 UTC and lasted until 1624 UTC.

So, it was an incredible 144-MHz propagation day here in North America. I called a few CQs on 144.200 SSB but had no luck. All of the activity was on the 144.174 MHz FT8 frequency."

KA3JAW reports:

Bryce, K4NBF, in Mashpee, Massachusetts (FN41sp), heard the following stations on Tuesday, July 13:

1255 UTC������ 104.3�� WZIN "The Buzz" in Charlotte Amalie, Virgin Islands, running 44 kW - 1,641 miles (2,640 kilometers). Single-hop E skip.

1956 UTC������ 93.7���� HILS-FM "Latidos" in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, running 5 kW - 1,601 miles (2,576 kilometers) Single-hop E skip.

2034 UTC������ 95.6���� "Radio Uno" in Barranquilla, Colombia, at 2,745 miles (4,417 kilometers), plus another unidentified station on 98.6 in Barranquilla. Double-hop E skip.

2040 UTC������ 98.7���� WUKQ-FM "La Primera" in Mayaguez, Puerto Rico, running 25 kW - 1810 miles (2912 kilometers). Double-hop E skip."

HI8T in the Dominican Republic reports:

"July 13, 6 meters was as crowded as 20 meters. I checked my radio twice to see if it was really on 6 meters. FT8 signals were very loud on 50.313. At around 1650 UTC, I switched to the 2-meter FT8 frequency, 144.174, and worked KA9CFD in Illinois with very good signals. After him, many other stations came in. Later that day in my car, I heard one FM radio station from Alabama and one from Georgia. It seems that Solar Cycle 25 will be full of surprises, and one thing that helps is that with FT8, everybody is captive on the same frequency."

Finally, I've enjoyed hunting for 10-meter CW propagation beacons from 28.2 - 28.3 MHz, sometimes using remote WebSDR receivers. I put up my own beacon (with tremendous help from Vlodymyr, AA7DJ) last Friday after IARU assigned me a frequency, 28.2833 MHz. K7RA/b is now running about 5 W, 24 x 7 from CN87uq with a half-wave vertical dipole. If you hear it, email me a report or send a QSL card.

A regularly updated comprehensive 10-meter beacon list is here[2].

Sunspot numbers for July 8 through 14 were 23, 23, 24, 23, 22, 11, and 23, with a mean of 21.3. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 73.4, 73.8, 74, 73.6, 71.6, 72, and 72.1, with a mean of 72.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 5, 6, 4, 7, 5, and 14, with a mean of 6.6. Middle latitude A index was 5, 7, 8, 4, 7, 7, and 10, with a mean of 6.9.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[3] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[4] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out this propagation page[5].

A propagation bulletin archive[6] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[7] website.

Instructions[8] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[9] your reports and observations.


[1] https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg
[2] https://www.qsl.net/wj5o/bcn.htm
[3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[5] http://k9la.us/
[6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[7] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[8] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[9] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

07/23/2021

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: It's exciting to observe increasing sunspot activity. Recently Solar Cycle 25 produced new sunspots frequently, and I watch them pop up every day on Spaceweather.com[1]. New sunspots emerged on July 14, 16, 17, 19 and 20, and two new ones appeared on July 21. When I look at this image[2] from July 22, our sun is peppered with spots, reminding me of past solar cycles.

Average daily sunspot numbers more than doubled from 21.3 last week to 48.9 during this reporting week, July 15-21. Average daily solar flux jumped from 72.9 to 81.3.

Geomagnetic numbers held steady, with both the middle latitude and planetary A index averages at 6.4.

Predicted solar flux is 89 and 87 on July 23 - 24; 85 on July 25 - 30; 90 on July 31 - August 1; 85 on August 2; 75 on August 3 - 12; 78, 80, and 80 on August 13 - 15; 85 on August 16 - 21, and 90 on August 22 - 28.

Predicted planetary A index is 18, 16, and 8 on July 23 - 25; 5 on July 26 - 27; 8 on July 28; 5 on July 29 - August 1; 8 on August 2; 5 on August 3 - 9; 12 and 10 on August 10 - 11; 5 on August 12 - 16; 8 on August 17 - 18; 5 on August 19 - 28, and 8 on August 29.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH, sent this geomagnetic activity forecast for July 23 - August 19, before he takes a week of vacation.

The geomagnetic field will be:


o quiet on: July 25, 30, August 7, 12 - 13


o quiet to unsettled on: July 24, 28 - 29, 31, August 9, 14


o quiet to active on: July 23, 26, August 1, 3 - 6, 11, 15 - 17, 19


o unsettled to active: July 27, August 2, 8, 10, 18


o active to disturbed: None predicted!



Remarks:

=Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

=Next Thursday, I will not compile a forecast of Earth's magnetic field activity, because I will be walking on the highest mountains of my country - the Krkonose Mountains - without such conveniences of civilization as computer or internet. But I will have a good friends, camera and binoculars with me!

OH6BG has some interesting VOACAP links on his QRZ.com profile[3].

I've been having fun using remote SDR receivers[4] to hunt for 10-meter beacons during the day. This revealed much more sporadic-e propagation than I was previously aware of.

On Thursday, using the AB9MQ receiver[5] in Normal, Illinois, I copied beacons KE5JXC/b in Kaplan, Louisiana, on 28.2515 MHz; WD8INF/b in Lebanon, Ohio, on 28.2525 MHz, and KC5SQD/b in Missouri City, Texas, on 28.2508 MHz.

You will notice on the 10-meter beacon roster[6] from WJ5O that the listings resolve to 100 Hz, instead of 1 KHz. This allows more of them to be packed together on the band. The three beacons mentioned here were all copied with the receiver tuned to the same frequency, and because they transmit on slightly different frequencies, they're easy to copy.

A correction: I mentioned my new CW beacon, K7RA/b on 28.2833 MHz in last week's report. The power output is actually 11 W, as I was reminded by UY5DJ/AA7DJ who generously built the beacon transmitter and controller.

N8II in West Virginia, wrote:

"There was much intense sporadic-e, mostly within the US and Canada on July 13-15 with double hop to MT, UT, WA, OR, BC, CA, NV and AZ.

"Several times the skip zone shortened to stations less than 300 miles away in NC, SC, KY, and OH. I easily made over 100 QSOs. I worked Steve, VE2CSI, in Sept-Iles, Quebec (FO60), a couple of times on 10 meters and once on 6 meters, all SSB.

"Things were fairly quiet until July 18, when Europe came through well on 10 starting just after 1200 UTC, working 9A2U, Croatia, and Vlada, YU4VLA, Serbia, along with Italy, Bulgaria, Switzerland, Belgium, Scotland, and several German stations until 1319 UTC.

"Just after 0000 UTC on the July 19, 10 meters came alive with SSB activity from Maine and the US 4th area. I found TI5KMK in Costa Rica, probably via Es, and also Puerto Rico. Suddenly on July 21, Upstate New York and New England stations with big signals appeared, starting 2214 UTC. French stations F6ARC and F4AIF were found around 2240 UTC.

"July 22 saw one of the best openings of the year to western Europe on 10 meter. I ran quite a few stations on 28.430 MHz SSB after calling EI2IP and EI3GD in Ireland starting at 1941 UTC. Signal levels were very good, and many stations were active. The highlight was being called by SE5S and Hawk, SM5AQD, both in Sweden. SM5AQD was peaking S-9 running 1,500 W to a triple stack of eight-element tri-band Yagis. Soon after, MM0TFU in Scotland called in with a bit better signal. As I recall, he runs 400 W into a three-element Yagi. This was the loudest Ian has been this year after several 10-meter QSOs. Around 0040 UTC, I worked WA2OOO on Long Island, New York, less than 300 miles away, with a strong signal, as well as VO1VXC in Newfoundland."

Here's the latest video[7] (July 17) from Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

Sunspot numbers for July 15 - 21 were 22, 35, 53, 42, 45, 59, and 86, with a mean of 48.9. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 73.5, 75, 77.4, 80.4, 82.6, 87, and 93.5, with a mean of 81.3.. Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 4, 4, 4, 7, 10, and 6, with a mean of 6.4. Middle latitude A index was 12, 5, 4, 5, 4, 9, and 6, with a mean of 6.4.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[8] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[9] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out this propagation page[10].

A propagation bulletin archive[11] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[12] website.

Instructions[13] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[14] your reports and observations.


[1] http://www.spaceweather.com/
[2] https://bit.ly/36TTO5t
[3] https://www.qrz.com/lookup/oh6bg
[4] http://kiwisdr.com/public/
[5] http://ab9mq.hopto.org:8073/
[6] https://www.qsl.net/wj5o/bcn.htm
[7] https://youtu.be/PWIb1g-Jy18
[8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[10] http://k9la.us/
[11] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[12] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[13] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[14] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

07/30/2021

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Solar activity slowed this week, with the average daily sunspot number declining from 48.9 last week to 33.9 this week (July 22 - 28). Wednesday, July 28, saw no sunspots at all.

Average daily solar flux went from 81.3 to 83.

Geomagnetic indicators held steady, with average daily planetary A index at 6.4 both last week and this week. Average daily middle latitude A index went from 6.4 last week to 6.3 this week.

Predicted solar flux is 76 on July 30 - 31; 74 on August 1; 72 on August 2 - 4; 74 on August 5 - 6; 75 on August 7 - 12; 78, 80, 82, and 85 on August 13 - 16; 90 on August 17 - 18; 85 on August 19 - 20; 80 on August 21; 82 on August 22 - 28; 78 on August 29, and 75 on August 30 - September 8.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 12, and 8 on July 30 - August 1; 5 on August 2 - 9; 12 and 10 on August 10 - 11; 5 on August 12 - 15; 10 and 8 on August 16 - 17; 5 on August 18 - 23; 12, 12, and 8 on August 24 - 26; 5 on August 27 - 28; 8 on August 29, and 5 on August 30 - September 5.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH, is on vacation this week, hiking in the mountains of the Czech Republic, so we have forecasts from two of his associates. The first is from Martina Pavelkova, RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Department, Ondrejov, Czech Republic.

Solar activity forecast for the period July 30 - August 05:


o Activity level: mostly very low


o X-ray background flux (1.0 - 8.0 A) in the range A5.5 - B1.5


o 10.7-centimeter radio flux: Fluctuating in the range 74 - 82


o Events: Class C (0 - 4/period), Class M (0/period), Class X (0/period), Proton (0/period)


o Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 0 - 55



Here's a rgeomagnetic activity forecast for July 30 - August 5 from Tomas Bayer, RWC Prague, Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague, Department of Geomagnetism, Budkov Observatory (BDV).


o Quiet: Jul 30 - 31, Aug 2 - 4


o Unsettled: Jul 31, Aug 1 - 3, 5


o Active: 0


o Minor storm: 0


o Major storm: 0


o Severe storm: 0



Geomagnetic activity summary: Next week, we expect at most quiet to unsettled conditions. The more unsettled events are possible about August 1 - 2, and also about Thursday, August 5. The other days, we expect quiet to unsettled conditions generally, closer to quiet level.

Jan, KC0V, in Colorado, wrote to report a big 2-meter opening from DN70 to the midwest on the afternoon of July 24.

"I was busy with some chores then happened to look at DXMaps and the APRS VHF propagation map and noticed a large Es cloud located over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa and another over southeastern Kansas. I quickly tuned into 2 meters, FT8 144.174. Signals were very strong, with +21 dB the best report I sent and +29 dB the best report I received. My QSOs, beginning at 2216 and ending at 2235 UTC were:




WA9DU



EM69




WB8ART



EM79




AA9JS



EN51




KC9IKB



EM69




KA9CFD



EN40




WA4CQG



EM72




KX9X



EN50




NY1V



EM69




KM8V



EN91




K2DRH



EN41




AG4V



EM55




KO9A



EN52




WB8JCW



EN80



"Then followed 26 minutes of a mixture of single decodes, total quiet, meteor bursts, but no QSOs. Then at 2301 UTC, K9YK in EN60. And then it was over. I don't know when the opening began since it was well in progress when I got to the radio, but it was an amazing 20 minutes or so.

"Unfortunately, I was unable to complete [a contact] with W3IP in FM19, which would have been the longest-distance QSO of the opening for me. We heard each other over several sequences but were unable to finish the exchange.

"My station: Kenwood TS-2000, Beko HLV-1000 running at 750 W, 10-element LFA (by G0KSC) at 35 feet."

Sunspot numbers for July 22 - 28, 2021 were 77, 46, 35, 24, 25, 25, and 0, with a mean of 33.1. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 89, 87.4 83.9, 81.6, 80.8, 79.6, and 78.8, with a mean of 83. Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 4, 4, 3, 4, 6, and 13, with a mean of 6.4. Middle latitude A index was 9, 3, 5, 5, 3, 6, and 13, with a mean of 6.3.

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

08/06/2021

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Solar activity took a deep dive during the July 29 - August 4 reporting week. Sunspots were gone July 28 - August 1, so the average daily sunspot number dropped from 33.1 last week to 6 this week. Average daily solar flux slipped from 83 to 74.8.

Predicted solar flux is 74 and 73 on August 6 - 7; 75 on August 8 - 10; 74 on August 11 - 12; 75 on August 3 - 14; 76 on August 15 - 16; 75 and 74 on August 17 - 18; 72 on August 19 - 31; 74 on September 1, and 75 on September 2 - 10.

Predicted planetary A index is 12, 8, and 8 on August 6 - 8; 5, 10, and 8 on August 9 - 11; 5 on August 12 - 15; 10, 8, and 8 on August 16 - 18; 5 on August 19 - 22; 8, 12, and 8 on August 23 - 25; 5 on August 26 - 31; 12 and 10 on September 1 - 2, and 5 on September 3 - 11.

Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for August 6 - 31 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

The geomagnetic field will be:


o quiet on August 12 - 13, 20 - 21, 23, 28


o quiet to unsettled on August 7 - 9, 14, 19, 22, 25 - 27, 31


o quiet to active on August 6, 11, 15 - 18, 29 - 30


o unsettled to active August 10, 24


o active to disturbed: Nothing predicted



I (K7RA) spent 8 days in the hospital for neurosurgery last week, so I brought my laptop along and was able to compile this week's report, thanks to help from many readers.

One thing I did every day to keep myself busy and make propagation observations was to use free public receivers on the internet via resources such as http://kiwisdr.com/public/[1] to search for 10-meter propagation beacons. Then, I would document and send signal reports to the beacon operators. In July, I put up an IARU-coordinated CW beacon, K7RA/b on 28.2833 MHz, and enjoy receiving reports from listeners.

Jon Jones, N0JK, writes:

"There was a 2-meter sporadic-E opening on August 4. Ron, WZ1V (FN31) reported to me that he worked KA9CFD (EN40), K0TPP (EM48), and W5LDA (EM15) at around 2225 UTC on FT8 via Es. He said KA9CFD was loud. 2-meter Es is very rare in August.

"The last week of July there was a strong tropospheric opening on 2 meters from northeast Kansas. I worked as far as KE8FD (EN80) and W3CP (EM74) on FT8. I had a PSK flag on 2 meters from W3IP (FM19), more than 1,500 kilometers (930 miles) away.

"The Perseids meteor shower[2] is building in intensity with people now making morning MSK144 contacts on 2 meters. The peak is the night of August 11 and the morning of August 12."

Ken Brown, N4SO, on Alabama's Gulf Coast reports:

"On July 30, the Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN[3]) was 0, and July 31, and I was still able to log VE3TEN, KA3JOE and W2DLL - Ontario, Pennsylvania, and New York, nearly a straight line to the northeast.

"On July 31, I was still able to log K6FRC/b at 1454 UTC. Weak but readable (339).

"On August 1, at 0400 UTC, 11 PM local, I had a long list starting with N9TNY, W8EH, WA2SFT, WI4L, and K4JEE, in EN51, EM79, EM76, EM74, and EM78, respectively. Straight line north and northeast."

From multiple sources, I received a news release from the High Altitude Observatory in Colorado regarding the revision of their Solar Cycle 25 predictions. The parts about radio propagation and the progression of Solar Cycle 24 are mine.

News Release: A revised prediction from the NASA High Altitude Observatory based at the University of Colorado. NASA heliophysicists have released a revised prediction for Solar Cycle 25. The report generated by Ricky Egeland, a solar physicist working in the NASA Space Radiation Analysis Group, now calls for the peak of Solar Cycle 25 to top out at a value of 195 �17 based upon the new scale for calculating smoothed sunspot number (SSN). For reference Solar Cycle 21 peaked at an SSN of 233 (new scale) while Solar Cycle 23 peaked at an SSN of 180 (new scale).

If this prediction holds up ham radio will see excellent world-wide F-layer conditions on 10 meters for several years around the time of the solar maximum. Conditions on 6 meters should be good in the equinox periods before and after solar max with consistent openings on medium haul polar routes. Six-meter routes traversing the equator should experience consistent openings �9 months from solar max.

Ricky Egeland is a participating member in the group headed up by Scott McIntosh and Bob Leamon that published a paper 9 months ago outlining the existence of magnetic bands within the sun that govern the sunspot and Hale cycles. At the time of its publishing, the paper went on to predict the peak of Solar Cycle 25 could be as high as Solar Cycle 21. Today's release is a revised prediction based upon data observed since the original paper was published. To be sure we are still in early days. The solar rotation cycle, as marked by sunspot activity, was established on April 19, 2021, so we are only 90 days into actually observing Solar Cycle 25 activity. It is now agreed that the dramatic run-up in sunspot activity we experienced late last fall, while tied to Solar Cycle 25, was an outlier.

When asked directly about whether they can declare if the terminator event they wrote about in the fall 2020 paper has occurred, Scott McIntosh stated, "We can't be sure just yet but we are very, very close."

It also should be noted that while it has been over a year since the sun produced a Solar Cycle 24 region with a sunspot worthy of a NASA classification, the sun has been steadily producing spotless Solar Cycle 24 active regions, the last of which formed right on the solar equator at N00/W54 on July 24, 2021, as recorded by Jan Alvestad's Solar Terrestrial Activity Report website. These active regions, being part of a Solar Cycle in its final stages of existence, produce no spots and only last for a few hours before they dissipate. The previous Solar Cycle 24 active region formed on June 28, 2021. Once the Solar Cycle 24 active regions cease altogether, Solar Cycle 25 will take off in earnest. - with thanks to Bob Marston, AA6XE

K7TLM reminds us that the United States Postal Service currently offers first-class stamps with wonderful solar images in a Sun Science series[4].

Sunspot numbers for July 29 - August 4 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 13, 15, and 14, with a mean of 6. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 75.8, 75.5, 75.9, 74.9, 74.6, 75.9, and 70.8, with a mean of 74.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 6, 6, 4, 17, 10, and 5, with a mean of 8. Middle latitude A index was 12, 6, 6, 4, 13, 15, and 5, with a mean of 8.7.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[5] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[6] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out this propagation page[7].

A propagation bulletin archive[8] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[9] website.

Instructions[10] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[11] your reports and observations.


[1] http://kiwisdr.com/public/
[2] https://www.imo.net/viewing-the-perseid-meteor-shower-in-2021/
[3] https://wwwbis.sidc.be/silso/eisnplot
[4] https://store.usps.com/store/product/buy-stamps/sun-science-S_480804
[5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[7] http://k9la.us/
[8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[9] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[11] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

08/13/2021

�

The K7RA Solar Update

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Solar activity continues to be very weak, and the latest 45-day outlook seems to indicate more of the same ahead. Sunspots only appeared on 3 out of the 7 days in the August 5 - 11 reporting week, and these days were not consecutive.

Average daily sunspot numbers actually rose a little, from 6 to 9.9. Average daily solar flux softened from 74.8 to 73.7. Average daily planetary A index went from 8 to 6.3, while middle latitude averages were 7, down from 8.7 last week.

Predicted solar flux over the next few weeks shows a predicted maximum of only 75 on just one day, September 11. The solar flux forecast from USAF and NOAA shows 73 on August 13-14; 72 on August 15-19; 73 on August 20; 74 on August 21 - September 1; 73, 72, 72, 74, and 74 on September 2-6; 73 on September 7-10; 75 on September 11; 72 on September 12-15; 73 on September 16, and 74 on September 17 and beyond.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on August 13-15; 5 on August 16-22; 8 on August 15-16; 5 on August 17-22; 8, 12, and 8 on August 23-25; 5 on August 26 - September 1; 8 and 12 on September 2-3; 8 on September 4-6; 5 on September 7-11; 12, 10, and 10 on September 12-14, and 5 on September 15-18.

Strangely, the planetary A index for September 5 is listed as 58, which I was certain was an error. I wrote to SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov[1] and received no reply as yet.� This outlier value was repeated in Thursday's forecast. Wednesday's prediction was done by forecasters Stover and Houseal, and Thursday's was from Trost and Houseal. I have not checked earlier forecasts to see when this value first showed up. New forecasts[2] appear daily on the SWPC website.

OK1HH is away for another week, so two of his colleagues - Martina Pavelkova[3] of RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Department, Ondrejov, Czech Republic, and Tomas Bayer, RWC Prague, Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague, Department of Geomagnetism, Budkov Observatory - are sitting in to present the geomagnetic activity forecast for August 13 - 19.


o Activity level: mostly very low


o X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range A3.5-A7.0


o Radio flux (10.7 centimeters): a fluctuation in the range 70-75


o Events: class C (0-2/period), class M (0/period), class X (0/period),


o proton (0/period)


o Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 0-55



Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period August 13-August 19, 2021:


o Quiet: Aug 13-16, 19


o Unsettled: Aug 16-18


o Active: possible Aug 16-17


o Minor storm: 0


o Major storm: 0


o Severe storm: 0



Geomagnetic activity summary: Next week, we expect quiet-to-unsettled conditions generally. Until Sunday, August 15, we expect the quiet-to-unsettled level closer to the lower end of the scale.

After Monday, August 16, more unsettled conditions are possible. Between August 16 and August 18, more unsettled conditions are probable. Within this interval, an isolated active event is also possible.

I spotted an interesting item[4] on Southgate Amateur Radio News.

Sunspot numbers for August 5 - 11 were 36, 0, 0, 11, 0, 0, and 22, with a mean of 9.9. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 74.3, 74.4, 73.7, 73.5, 73, 73.3, and 73.8, with a mean of 73.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 7, 11, 5, 5, 7, and 6, with a mean of 6.3. Middle latitude A index was 3, 9, 9, 6, 6, 9, and 7, with a mean of 7.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[5] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[6] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out this propagation page[7].

A propagation bulletin archive[8] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[9] website.

Instructions[10] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

�

Share[11] your reports and observations.


[1] mailto:SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov
[2] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/
[3] mailto:sunwatch@asu.cas.cz
[4] https://bit.ly/3sd5LNr
[5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[7] http://k9la.us/
[8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[9] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[11] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

08/20/2021

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Weak solar activity persists, but Friday, August 13, was the sole spotless day in the current August 12-18 reporting week. Last week we reported 4 days with no sunspots in the previous 7 days. Average daily sunspot number increased from 9.9 last week to 17.7 during this week. Solar flux was the same, with the average inching from 73.7 to 73.8.

Geomagnetic indicators were also stable. Average planetary A index was 6.1, compared to 6.3 last week. Average middle latitude A index moved from 7.6 to 7.

Predicted solar flux is 75 on August 20; 73 on August 21 - 23; 72 on August 24 - 26; 73 on August 27 - 29; 74 on August 30 - September 1; 73 on September 2 - 11; 74 on September 12; 73 on September 13 - 17; 72 on September 18, and 73 on September 19 - 25.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on August 20; then 8, 8, 10, 14, 12, and 8 on August 21 - 26; 5 on August 27 - September 1; 8 and 12 on September 2 - 3; 5 on September 4 - 10; 8 on September 11 - 13; 5 on September 14 - 18; 8, 12, and 8 on September 19 - 21, and 5 on September 22 - 28.

On August 14 Spaceweather.com[1] reported that there were no sunspots, and that so far in 2021 there have been 56 days with no spots. "That might sound like a lot, but it is in fact a sharp reduction from hundreds of spotless days observed in 2019 and 2020," Spaceweather.com observed. "Despite today's blank sun, solar activity is intensifying compared to previous years."

Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for August 20 - September 14 from J.K. Janda, OK1HH. He reports that the geomagnetic field will be:


o quiet on August 20 - 21, 28, September 1, 5, 10, 14


o quiet to unsettled on August 22, 25 - 27, 31, September 2, 4, 6 - 9


o quiet to active on August 30, September 3, (11 - 13)


o unsettled to active August (23 - 24, 29)


o active to disturbed: Nothing predicted



Remarks:

- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

- The predictability of changes is very low because there are not enough indications.

Ken Brown, N4SO, reported hearing a new 10-meter beacon, N5TIT/b on 28.209 MHz. Signal was weak, and the path was 520 miles.

I've noted that the relatively low solar activity has depressed 10-meter signals, and my practice of using remote SDR receivers to hunt for beacons turns up little activity lately.

At the end of July, I spent 8 days in hospital for neurosurgery and managed to use kiwisdr.com/public/[2] to hunt for 10-meter beacons. I used the list at https://www.qsl.net/wj5o/bcn.htm[3] to help identify them, and sent reports to the beacon owners.

Here's the latest[4] from Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, the Space Weather Woman.

Sunspot numbers for August 12 - 18 were 11, 0, 47, 23, 14, 13, and 16, with a mean of 17.7. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 73.6, 72.9, 72.6, 74.6, 74.4, 73.1, and 75.3, with a mean of 73.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 6, 5, 10, 7, 5, and 6, with a mean of 6.1 Middle latitude A index was 6, 9, 4, 13, 8, 7, and 6, with a mean of 7.6.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[5] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[6] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out this propagation page[7].

A propagation bulletin archive[8] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[9] website.

Instructions[10] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[11] your reports and observations.


[1] http://www.spaceweather.com/
[2] http://kiwisdr.com/public/
[3] https://www.qsl.net/wj5o/bcn.htm
[4] https://youtu.be/GdI-itUhKec
[5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[7] http://k9la.us/
[8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[9] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[11] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

08/27/2021

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Sun watchers saw no spotless days this week. Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 17.7 last week to 21.7 for the August 19 - 25 reporting week. Average daily solar flux increased from 73.8 to 78.5.

Geomagnetic indicators were quiet, with average daily planetary A index declining from 6.1 to 4.7, and average daily middle latitude A index dropping from 7.6 to 5.7.

We are less than one month away from the autumnal equinox in the Northern Hemisphere on Wednesday, September 22. On that day, both hemispheres will be bathed in equal measures of solar radiation, always a positive for HF propagation.

Predicted solar flux is 90 on August 27 - September 2; 85 on September 3; 73 on September 4 - 11; 74 on September 12 - 15; 76 on September 16 - 18; 77 on September 19 - 20; 76 on September 21; 75 on September 22 - 29, and 73 on September 30 - October 8.

Predicted planetary A index is 16, 12, 10, and 8 on August 27 - 30; 5 on August 31 - September 1; 8 and 12 on September 2 - 3; 5 on September 4 - 10; 10 and 8 on September 11 - 12; 5 on September 13 - 18; 8 on September 19 - 20; 15 and 10 on September 21 - 22; 7 on September 23 - 24; 5 on September 25 - 28; 8 and 12 on September 29 - 30, and 5 through the first week in October.

I find it encouraging that the above solar flux forecast from USAF and NOAA was revised upward over the past few days and that the sunspot number (47) on Thursday, August 26, was much higher than the average daily sunspot number (21.7) over the previous 7 days.

Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for August 27 - September 21, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

The geomagnetic field will be:


o quiet on September 1, 5, 10, 14 - 18


o quiet to unsettled on August 28, 31, September 2 - 4, 6 - 9, 19 - 20


o quiet to active on August 29 - 30, September 11 - 13, 21


o unsettled to active August (27)


o active to disturbed, nothing predicted



Remarks: Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

At 0839 UTC on August 26, the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a geomagnetic warning.

"A weak, slow-moving CME [coronal mass ejection] associated with a disappearing solar filament on 23 August may have a glancing impact at Earth late on the UT day of 26 or into 27 August. Mildly elevated geomagnetic activity may occur following the impact. Another weak, slow-moving CME observed occurring toward the middle of the UT day on 24 August appears to be primarily eastward, although there is a chance it may also have a glancing impact at Earth during 27 August, potentially resulting in mildly elevated geomagnetic activity."

Darrell Emerson, AA7FV wrote:

"I have a question about a possible 17-meter propagation anomaly between my location (AA7FV in Tucson, DM42pg, 32.3� N, 110.7� W) and the NCDXF beacon W6WX (CM97ae). According to QRZ.com[1], W6WX is at a bearing of 301� and 1,158 kilometers from AA7FV. Sunset at W6WX is 0249 UTC, and sunset at AA7FV is 0158 UTC.

"I have been using the program Faros to look at the propagation times from various NCDXF beacons. As you know, the NCDXF beacons are time-synchronized using GPS, and so by looking at the arrival times of transmissions from a given beacon, it is easily possible to distinguish between short-path and long-path propagation. This is what the program Faros does.

"As a check, here is data taken at the same time with the same setup on the beacon ZL6B, which shows no anomaly. You can see that I was receiving the beacon from about 0000 UTC until about 0430 UTC. The propagation delays line up precisely with the delay (about 39 ms) expected for short-path propagation. The expected long-path delay would be nearly 100 ms, but no signals are observed with that delay during this time period."

[Darrell sent graphics that I am unable to reproduce here, but you could email him via his address on QRZ.com, if you want a copy.]

I referred his question to Carl, K9LA, who responded:

"ZL6B sunrise is around 1906 UTC, so I would have expected that you'd see him again later in the day (a bit after 1906 UTC). But perhaps the MUF wasn't high enough at that time. Or something else was going on. Dropping out around 0430 UTC is understandable, as your sunset is around 0200 UTC and the MUF was slowly dropping until ZL6B (still in daylight) went away around 0430 UTC.

"As for the W6WX results, being only 1,158 kilometers from you says a relatively high elevation angle would be required on the true great circle path. And that says the MUF over that path would not likely be high enough for normal refraction at a high elevation angle on 18 MHz (since we're just starting to come out of solar minimum). So, your comment about an unusual ionized cloud (or an enhanced area in the ionosphere) is a possible explanation.

"The 20 ms or so delay suggests an off-great circle path from an enhanced area of ionization. And my guess is that this area was south of you and W6WX as that puts it closer to the equatorial ionosphere, where more interesting short-term events happen than north of your location. It's too bad that the azimuth arrival angle isn't measured.

"If you're interested in some more Faros results, check out these documents: https://k9la.us/Aug17_Long_Path-Short_Path_Switching_on_15-Meters_Part_1.pdf[2] and https://k9la.us/Sep17_Long_Path-Short_Path_Switching_on_15-Meters_Part_2.pd f[3]."

By the way, Carl says he accidentally deleted an email from someone named Edgar in Toronto who had questions about VOACAP, and now he has no way to respond. If you are Edgar, please contact K9LA.

Ken Brown, N4SO (EM50tk), in Alabama reported hearing the XE1FAS/b beacon on 28.171 MHz at 0542 UTC (12:42 AM local time) on August 26. "Just above the noise and then faded out," he said. The path distance was 1,001 miles.

K6HPX has some fascinating antenna photos on his QRZ.com profile[4].

Here's the latest video[5] from Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, the Space Weather Woman. You can always find her new videos here[6].

Sunspot numbers for August 19 - 25 were 25, 14, 25, 16, 14, 29, and 29, with a mean of 21.7. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 74.9, 77.7, 77.1, 77.1, 78.1, 80.9, and 83.6, with a mean of 78.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 5, 3, 3, 4, 5, and 9, with a mean of 4.7. Middle latitude A index was 5, 6, 4, 4, 8, 5, and 8, with a mean of 5.7.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[7] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[8] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out the propagation page of Carl, K9LA[9].

A propagation bulletin archive[10] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[11] website.

Instructions[12] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[13] your reports and observations.


[1] http://www.qrz.com/
[2] https://k9la.us/Aug17_Long_Path-Short_Path_Switching_on_15-Meters_Part_1.pdf
[3] https://k9la.us/Sep17_Long_Path-Short_Path_Switching_on_15-Meters_Part_2.pdf
[4] https://www.qrz.com/lookup/k6hpx
[5] https://youtu.be/jJgxa0SMojE
[6] https://www.spaceweatherwoman.com/forecasts
[7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[9] http://k9la.us/
[10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[11] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[12] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[13] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

09/03/2021

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Solar activity is on the upswing this week. Average daily sunspot numbers increased from 21.7 to 50.6, with a high of 77 last Saturday, September 28. Average daily solar flux rose from 78.5 to 88.

Average daily planetary A index increased from 4.7 to 9.6, and average daily middle latitude A index went from 5.7 to 10.7. Geomagnetic activity peaked August 27 - 28 due to a coronal mass ejection.

New sunspot regions appeared on August 26 and 27, and on September 2 Spaceweather.com[1] reported, "New Sunspot, Rapidly Growing" to announce the emergence of AR2863.

Predicted solar flux looks promising, particularly after mid - September, at 85 and 82 on September 3 - 4; 80 on September 5 - 6; 78 on September 7; 75 on September 8 - 10; 80 on September 11 - 14; 85 on September 15; 90 on September 16 - 30; 85 on October 1, and 80 on October 2 - 10. Flux values rise to 90 again after October 12 in this forecast from September 2.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5, 10, and 8 on September 3 - 6; 5 on September 7 - 10; 10 and 8 on September 11 - 12; 5 on September 13 - 20; 8 on September 21; 5 on September 22 - 25; then a big jump to 25, 8, 18, 8, and 12 on September 26 - 30, back to 5 on October 1 - 7, and then 10 and 8 on October 8 - 9.

Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for September 3 - 29, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

The geomagnetic field will be:


o quiet on September 7 - 8, 10, 14 - 15, 17 - 18, 28 - 29
o quiet to unsettled on September 4 - 5, 13, 16, 19, 22, 25, 27
o quiet to active on September 3, 6, 9, 11 - 12, 20 - 21, 26
o unsettled to active on September 23 ( - 24)
o active to disturbed - nothing predicted

Remarks:

* Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

* The situation is confusing, the configuration of active regions and coronal holes is variable, so it's not possible to make a reasonably reliable forecast. This occasionally happens before solar activity rises.

The autumnal equinox will be on Wednesday, September 22, in the Northern Hemisphere, always a welcome event for HF propagation. Solar flux is forecast to be higher at that time, also a good sign.

Sunspot numbers for August 26 - September 1, 2021 were 47, 73, 77, 44, 41, 37, and 35, with a mean of 50.6. The 10.7 centimeter flux was 88.6, 89.5, 89.9, 88.7, 90.6, 84.4, and 84.2, with a mean of 88. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 20, 14, 8, 7, 7, and 5, with a mean of 9.6. Middle latitude A index was 6, 19, 17, 9, 9, 9, and 6, with a mean of 10.7.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[2] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[3] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out this propagation page[4].

A propagation bulletin archive[5] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[6] website.

Instructions[7] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[8] your reports and observations.


[1] http://www.spaceweather.com/
[2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[4] http://k9la.us/
[5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[6] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[7] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[8] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

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� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

09/10/2021

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Sunspot activity increased dramatically this week.

Over the course of the reporting week, sunspot numbers peaked at 87 on Wednesday, September 8; the day before, solar flux peaked at 101.2.

The average daily sunspot numbers rose by 14, to 64.6, while the average daily solar flux increased from 88 to 92.9. New sunspots appeared on September 2 and September 3, and three more new sunspot groups arrived on September 4. Another new one appeared on September 8, and on that day the total sunspot area was 1,000 micro-hemispheres.

On September 9, I was shocked to see the daily sunspot number at 124 and the total sunspot area hit 1,030 micro-hemispheres. I don't believe we've seen activity like this in nearly 6 years, when the daily sunspot number hit 125 on September 29, 2015.

We saw similar large total sunspot area numbers last November 25 - 26 - 1,180 and 1,020 micro-hemispheres. Sunspot numbers were 40 and 43 on those days, but a few days later on November 29 the sunspot number shot to 84.

Both the daily planetary and middle latitude A index reached highs of 14 on September 8. The averages were 7 and 7.7, down from 9.6 and 10.7 in last week's planetary and middle latitude readings.

Predicted solar flux seems quite promising, at 100 on September 10 - 11; 98 on September 12 - 13; 95 on September 14 - 17; 85 on September 18; 88 on September 19 - 23; 90 on September 24 - 28; 88 on September 29 - October 1; 86 on October 2; 90 on October 3 - 6; 92 and 90 on October 7 - 8, and 85 on October 9 - 15. Flux values are expected to rise to 90 again after October 20.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 8, and 8 on September 10 - 12; 5 on September 13 - 20; 8 on September 21; 5 on September 22 - October 1; 8 again on October 2 - 3, and 5 on October 4 - 17.

On Sunday September 5, Spaceweather.com[1] reported, "For most of the past 3 years, the sun has been absolutely blank. Today the sun has six sunspot groups. They're popping up all over the solar disk.

"The sudden profusion of so many sunspots is a sign of strength for young Solar Cycle 25. The solar cycle is actually running ahead of schedule. NOAA and NASA predicted that it will peak in the year 2025. Outbreaks like this one support the idea that solar max could come a year early."

On September 8, Spaceweather.com[2] reported a shortwave blackout over the Pacific Rim caused by a coronal mass ejection (CME) on September 8 at 1736 UTC.

Here's the most recent forecast[3] from the Space Weather Woman, Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, although by now it is a bit out of date.

This is an interesting article[4] about recent solar activity, but it is plagued with many popups.

Recently in this bulletin we mentioned the US Postal Service issuing stamps with solar images. This article[5] from June which gives much more detail on the creation of the stamps.

Sunspot numbers for September 2 - 8 were 33, 33, 68, 66, 80, 85, and 87, with a mean of 64.6. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 85.8, 83.8, 86.5, 93.3, 99.5, 101.2, and 100.4, with a mean of 92.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 6, 5, 6, 6, 8, and 14, with a mean of 7. Middle latitude A index was 3, 6, 5, 8, 8, 10, and 14, with a mean of 7.7.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[6] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[7] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out this propagation page[8].

A propagation bulletin archive[9] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[10] website.

Instructions[11] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[12] your reports and observations.�


[1] http://www.spaceweather.com/
[2] http://www.spaceweather.com/
[3] https://youtu.be/EndF67TGlnY
[4] https://bit.ly/396UGFf
[5] https://bit.ly/3yRtlkx
[6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[8] http://k9la.us/
[9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[10] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[11] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[12] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

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� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS